Looking Ahead to Fall and Winter

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Well I know you've thought about it. I'm over the whole heat/summer thing and most of us can't wait for cooler weather. It's that time of year to look for signs and global patterns. Robert (wxsouth) has made some comments on his facebook site about the possibility of a weak Nina, or a "La Nada" ENSO pattern and that it may actually favor cooler temps for us generally, as recent Ninos have not acted like historic Ninos, and we've experienced more (and deeper plunging) cold fronts during recent Ninas. He admits he does not have a good guess this year and pretty much anything is on the table, and acknowledges he completely missed last year's forecast. I also checked out youtube prognosticators and you see the same predictions of bone chilling cold and snow you see every year for the East, but we know how that goes.

Right now it seems the usual pattern of pushing back the cooldown (from low 90s to upper 80s) has already started. There has been a lot of record warmth in Europe, Alaska, and the Arctic region this summer, and arctic sea ice melt appears to be tettering back and forth on the 2012 line. There are not a lot of good signs for a good brisk fall nor a decent winter. I my opinion, it is very hard to bet against the trends. Outside of the upper mid west and central part of the US, there's been very little below average for a long time. We know it will cool down and eventually we'll see fall and then winter like conditions, but will it continue to be above to well-above normal? I think predicting or even hoping for something different would be setting ourselves up for disappointment.

I predict Fall and Winter will be noticeably warmer than normal (which of course is the new normal). Unfortunately, we'll see at least one winter month be drastically above normal (like the past couple Februaries for example), snow will be almost impossible to come by south of I-40 and below 2000 feet, and we'll be left scratching our heads on how a very different set of factors could lead to such a similar result as last winter. Oh, and no three-peat of the early December snow (sorry NC peeps). 

What say you? 

[SN_Lover]

Ill start....

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Ouch. 

Here's Accuweather's Fall outlook map

 

Here's the NOAA outlook for Sept/Oct/Nov

Here's Nov/Dec/Jan

And Here's Jan/Feb/March

[BIG FROSTY]

43 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Well I know you've thought about it. I'm over the whole heat/summer thing and most of us can't wait for cooler weather. It's that time of year to look for signs and global patterns. Robert (wxsouth) has made some comments on his facebook site about the possibility of a weak Nina, or a "La Nada" ENSO pattern and that it may actually favor cooler temps for us generally, as recent Ninos have not acted like historic Ninos, and we've experienced more (and deeper plunging) cold fronts during recent Ninas. He admits he does not have a good guess this year and pretty much anything is on the table, and acknowledges he completely missed last year's forecast. I also checked out youtube prognosticators and you see the same predictions of bone chilling cold and snow you see every year for the East, but we know how that goes.

Right now it seems the usual pattern of pushing back the cooldown (from low 90s to upper 80s) has already started. There has been a lot of record warmth in Europe, Alaska, and the Arctic region this summer, and arctic sea ice melt appears to be tettering back and forth on the 2012 line. There are not a lot of good signs for a good brisk fall nor a decent winter. I my opinion, it is very hard to bet against the trends. Outside of the upper mid west and central part of the US, there's been very little below average for a long time. We know it will cool down and eventually we'll see fall and then winter like conditions, but will it continue to be above to well-above normal? I think predicting or even hoping for something different would be setting ourselves up for disappointment.

I predict Fall and Winter will be noticeably warmer than normal (which of course is the new normal). Unfortunately, we'll see at least one winter month be drastically above normal (like the past couple Februaries for example), snow will be almost impossible to come by south of I-40 and below 2000 feet, and we'll be left scratching our heads on how a very different set of factors could lead to such a similar result as last winter. Oh, and no three-peat of the early December snow (sorry NC peeps). 

What say you? 

I say you can save this, and post it ever year and you will be right 90-95% of the time!

[kvegas-wx]

Just give me Accuwxs "mainly pleasant" conditions all the way to Christmas Eve, then a 1 week long polar vortex between Christmas Day and New Years Day that dumps double our avg annual snowfall, then normal winter conditions for Jan/Feb and I'll deal with whatever is left over in March.

It's not that hard Mother Nature.  It's just not that hard. 

[nchighcountrywx]

WeatherBell Joe D’Aleo posting on fall and winter is out this morning 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

3 hours ago, nchighcountrywx said:

WeatherBell Joe D’Aleo posting on fall and winter is out this morning 

Is that Bastardi' s site? Let me guess, cold and snowy east! 

No really, what does he think?

[Buckethead]

I'm still learning which patterns work out the best for me in the high country.  Honestly, all those years of living in Columbia have me excited if I see half a foot for the year. 

[jpbart]

Living near Columbia I have already switch to snow denial mode in a feeble attempt to reduce the severity of the inevitable let down. Heck one year it snowed west of me then east along the coast. Felt like I was living in a weather related practical joke.   The emotional toll (and resulting liquor expenditures) for every missed snow chance was more than a little frustrating.  

[NRVwxfan.]

4 hours ago, Buckethead said:

I'm still learning which patterns work out the best for me in the high country.  Honestly, all those years of living in Columbia have me excited if I see half a foot for the year. 

Me too. Being over 2,000 feet in SW Virginia has me pretty excited. Columbia is pretty much a bad place if you like exciting weather.

[NRVwxfan.]

2 hours ago, jpbart said:

Living near Columbia I have already switch to snow denial mode in a feeble attempt to reduce the severity of the inevitable let down. Heck one year it snowed west of me then east along the coast. Felt like I was living in a weather related practical joke.   The emotional toll (and resulting liquor expenditures) for every missed snow chance was more than a little frustrating.  

So true. Columbia is an awful place unless you like hot, humid and dry sunny weather.

[FallsLake]

ESNO-neutral is forecasted through winter this year:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

What could this mean (from Ian Cassette, Roanoke VA):

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Well this weekend the upstate should see highs in the low 80s or even high 70s with clouds and some rain, but even after that the highs are all 80s; so no 90s. That's right on cue for our first fall "cool down" coming in late August. This past 10 days or so have gotten old quick!

[FallsLake]

7 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Well this weekend the upstate should see highs in the low 80s or even high 70s with clouds and some rain, but even after that the highs are all 80s; so no 90s. That's right on cue for our first fall "cool down" coming in late August. This past 10 days or so have gotten old quick!

This time of year is comparable to late February; whereas usually the heat/cold starts to get toned down, but the full force of the season can still present itself all the way into the first week of the following month.    

[FallsLake]

Usually September sees the first big breaks in the heat. Many of us can open our windows and enjoy the cooler temps. But that doesn't happen all the time. Just look one year back and see how the heat can hang around longer then normal:

 Lets hope for a different September this year...

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Always liked that song.

Maybe we should change the lyrics just a bit:

 

Follow September

Escaping summer Hell

Looking for the wind

Of chaaannnge...

As August summer nights

Slowly pass us by

Yearning for the wind 

Of chaaannnge

 

[Orangeburgwx]

On 8/18/2019 at 5:58 PM, jpbart said:

Living near Columbia I have already switch to snow denial mode in a feeble attempt to reduce the severity of the inevitable let down. Heck one year it snowed west of me then east along the coast. Felt like I was living in a weather related practical joke.   The emotional toll (and resulting liquor expenditures) for every missed snow chance was more than a little frustrating.  

Being in Orangeburg... Spot me .5" and it will hit my benchmark this winter, the analogs are a hot garbage

[griteater]

We've been in the warm cross-hairs in the southeast since the 2011-2012 winter

 

[griteater]

Here's a long term trend chart for Dec-Feb temperatures for North Carolina

[griteater]

There were a couple of screwy things that happened last winter:

1. We had an official sudden stratospheric warming on Jan 1-2, but it didn't propagate down into the troposphere so we didn't get the -NAO and eastern trough that you would expect to see with a SSW/El Nino combo (unlucky)

2. Just at the time when you would think that El Nino would be exerting it's max influence on the pattern in February, we ended up with a February that looked like La Nina with a PNA of -1.73 and record snowfall in Seattle (odd)

 

[FallsLake]

33 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here's a long term trend chart for Dec-Feb temperatures for North Carolina

Looks like a pattern. Everybody has heard of the 30s heat (dust bowl), maybe we'll start dropping back in the coming years. **not considering climate change..... 

[FallsLake]

24 minutes ago, griteater said:

There were a couple of screwy things that happened last winter:

1. We had an official sudden stratospheric warming on Jan 1-2, but it didn't propagate down into the troposphere so we didn't get the -NAO and eastern trough that you would expect to see with a SSW/El Nino combo (unlucky)

2. Just at the time when you would think that El Nino would be exerting it's max influence on the pattern in February, we ended up with a February that looked like La Nina with a PNA of -1.73 and record snowfall in Seattle (odd)

 

There was a lot of hype about a cold winter. Some of us did get lucky with the December storm, but otherwise it was a bad winter. 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

7 hours ago, griteater said:

We've been in the warm cross-hairs in the southeast since the 2011-2012 winter

 

Ouch. Upper mid west has definitely been the place to be over the past couple of years in particular. 

[superjames1992]

7 hours ago, griteater said:

We've been in the warm cross-hairs in the southeast since the 2011-2012 winter

 

Despite this, I would say winters over the last 10 years or so have been much improved over the winters of the 2000s decade.  I think Greensboro, at least, may be above the 1981-2010 average snowfall average despite the sizzling temperatures.

Of course, it only take some storm around here.  For example, Greensboro finished 50% above average in snowfall last year because of one storm, despite the rest of the winter being irredeemably terrible (aside from the surprise snowfall in April).

I am looking forward to this winter after having lived in Florida the last three winters...

[mackerel_sky]

10 hours ago, griteater said:

There were a couple of screwy things that happened last winter:

1. We had an official sudden stratospheric warming on Jan 1-2, but it didn't propagate down into the troposphere so we didn't get the -NAO and eastern trough that you would expect to see with a SSW/El Nino combo (unlucky)

2. Just at the time when you would think that El Nino would be exerting it's max influence on the pattern in February, we ended up with a February that looked like La Nina with a PNA of -1.73 and record snowfall in Seattle (odd)

 

MJO phases trumped everything last winter and it was horrible! Glad to see JB going normal in the SE!! Katy bar the doors, get your firewood!

[buckeyefan1]

According to this fella I found in my bedroom, it’s gonna be a cold winter   

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Too bad there's no truth to the myth! 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

GFS continues to show pattern change around the 18th with trough finally coming to the east. Brings 30s all the way down to Pennsylvania and W Virginia by the 20th and 50s all the way to gulf coast by 21st. SE ridge quickly back in place by 23rd though.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

For Sept 12, GSP  average temp is 83/63. Its been 90s every day this month except one. Boy 83 would sire feel nice.