TalcottWx Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 The 3k NAM looks to be a bit out of lunch imho with the line. The other mesos seem to have a more realistic looking grasp. Late evening line, then a second overnight line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Unless there's pig mechanical forcing ... close this thread down and never return to it - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Unless there's pig mechanical forcing ... close this thread down and never return to it - Today ... Warm front lifts north across the area this morning. The front should come thru mainly dry but can`t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Low clouds and patchy dense fog will accompany the boundary this morning. These low clouds and fog will lift and burn off later this morning giving way to at least partial sunshine this afternoon. Breaks of sunshine and 850 mb temps of +15C to +16C will support highs in the mid to upper 80s, 75-80 south coast given SSW winds off the ocean. These warm temps are about 5 degs warmer than normal and combined with dew pts in the upper 60s to lower 70s, summer heat and humidity will be in effect this afternoon. These temps and dew pts will also support CAPEs on the order of 1500-2500 j/kg. Thus moderate to high CAPE environment in warm sector this afternoon. Meanwhile a vigorous short wave will be tracking across NY state this afternoon. This feature will provide fairly strong mid level forcing for ascent, increase wind field aloft along with low level convergence from attending surface trough, all focused across western/northwest portions of CT/MA. While scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southeast and east across CT/RI and eastern MA, convection will be more widespread along with stronger storms over western and northwest portions of MA/CT. Given the moderate to high CAPE profiles coupled with increasing mid level wind field, damaging winds are a concern with the strongest storms this afternoon. In addition, models have been signaling a 25-30 kt low level SSW jet moving across southern New England 18z-00z. This may enhance 0-1 km helocity sufficiently for low risk of an isolated tornado in the CT river valley of MA where winds typically back more than models indicate due to the terrain of the CT river valley. Also dew pts rising into the low 70s will yield lower LCLs which is also another favorable parameter. However tornado threat higher farther northwest into NY state where meso-low is expected to track. Other concern today will be torrential downpours and risk for localized flooding given strong storms coupled with PWATs approaching 2 inches and surface dew pts in the lower 70s. It`s possible southeast MA remains mainly dry today given forcing for ascent is focused much farther to the northwest. Tonight ... Global and Hi Res models coming into better agreement on potential two rounds of convection, one this afternoon and a 2nd round this evening and overnight from a trailing short wave to move across the area. The first round of convection this afternoon should impact northwest CT into much of western-central MA, possibly into northeast MA. The second round this evening and overnight appears to focus across RI and eastern MA especially southeast MA. Despite loss of daytime heating dew pts in the low 70s coupled with some height falls/cooling temps aloft models offering 1000-1500j/kg of CAPE across RI and eastern MA. This combined with trailing mid level speed max of up to 35 kt at H7 may result in a second round of strong storms tonight across RI and eastern MA. Strong winds and localized torrential downpours/flooding would be the concerns. Also given shear profiles rotating storms are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Today ... Warm front lifts north across the area this morning. The front should come thru mainly dry but can`t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Low clouds and patchy dense fog will accompany the boundary this morning. These low clouds and fog will lift and burn off later this morning giving way to at least partial sunshine this afternoon. Breaks of sunshine and 850 mb temps of +15C to +16C will support highs in the mid to upper 80s, 75-80 south coast given SSW winds off the ocean. These warm temps are about 5 degs warmer than normal and combined with dew pts in the upper 60s to lower 70s, summer heat and humidity will be in effect this afternoon. These temps and dew pts will also support CAPEs on the order of 1500-2500 j/kg. Thus moderate to high CAPE environment in warm sector this afternoon. Meanwhile a vigorous short wave will be tracking across NY state this afternoon. This feature will provide fairly strong mid level forcing for ascent, increase wind field aloft along with low level convergence from attending surface trough, all focused across western/northwest portions of CT/MA. While scattered thunderstorms are expected farther southeast and east across CT/RI and eastern MA, convection will be more widespread along with stronger storms over western and northwest portions of MA/CT. Given the moderate to high CAPE profiles coupled with increasing mid level wind field, damaging winds are a concern with the strongest storms this afternoon. In addition, models have been signaling a 25-30 kt low level SSW jet moving across southern New England 18z-00z. This may enhance 0-1 km helocity sufficiently for low risk of an isolated tornado in the CT river valley of MA where winds typically back more than models indicate due to the terrain of the CT river valley. Also dew pts rising into the low 70s will yield lower LCLs which is also another favorable parameter. However tornado threat higher farther northwest into NY state where meso-low is expected to track. Other concern today will be torrential downpours and risk for localized flooding given strong storms coupled with PWATs approaching 2 inches and surface dew pts in the lower 70s. It`s possible southeast MA remains mainly dry today given forcing for ascent is focused much farther to the northwest. Tonight ... Global and Hi Res models coming into better agreement on potential two rounds of convection, one this afternoon and a 2nd round this evening and overnight from a trailing short wave to move across the area. The first round of convection this afternoon should impact northwest CT into much of western-central MA, possibly into northeast MA. The second round this evening and overnight appears to focus across RI and eastern MA especially southeast MA. Despite loss of daytime heating dew pts in the low 70s coupled with some height falls/cooling temps aloft models offering 1000-1500j/kg of CAPE across RI and eastern MA. This combined with trailing mid level speed max of up to 35 kt at H7 may result in a second round of strong storms tonight across RI and eastern MA. Strong winds and localized torrential downpours/flooding would be the concerns. Also given shear profiles rotating storms are possible. Well...whomever that forecaster is .. does mention " ...Vigorous short wave ..." among other mechanical arguments so we'll see.. Haven't spent much time on it... I just know from 35 years of New England life and travails that when you are bum-jammed with low clouds because the warm sector can't commit to pure barotropical and tries to just WAA saturate the llvs the whole way... it also ends up far better on paper than in practice. If we start mixing out and the sun shines... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2019 Author Share Posted August 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Unless there's pig mechanical forcing ... close this thread down and never return to it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well...whomever that forecaster is .. does mention " ...Vigorous short wave ..." among other mechanical arguments so we'll see.. Haven't spent much time on it... I just know from 35 years of New England life and travails that when you are bum-jammed with low clouds because the warm sector can't commit to pure barotropical and tries to just WAA saturate the llvs the whole way... it also ends up far better on paper than in practice. If we start mixing out and the sun shines... heh Already had a lot of sun here, and any of this high level debris should be long gone in a few hours. Already seeing some CU on vis sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Pouring buckets here at the office in Norwichtown. Heavy, heavy rain. No lightning or thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Looking at the models... It looks to me as if this is all a pretty late show outside of the W and NW portions. All of the daytime stuff forms and lifts to NNE or W NY. It's evening time and overnight for everyone else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Boom , tstorm in progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: One round is west. One round is East. Little in the middle, but she got much back. Pretty straightforward next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: next The Twins don't look at models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 11 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: The Twins don't look at models Watch this one, developed right over me head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Pay attention to the storms along the warm front moving northward now across central CT, RI and Interior SE MA and southwest Boston METRO region. Could produce a few tornado warnings as some supercells develop within a highly unstable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Tonight's severe weather risk looks to explode from RI to Cape Cod, MA as the mesolow over MD right now is vigorous and should maintain the vigor as it moves along the South Coast of CT, Ri and SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Pay attention to the storms along the warm front moving northward now across central CT, RI and Interior SE MA and southwest Boston METRO region. Could produce a few tornado warnings as some supercells develop within a highly unstable environment. There is not even a remote chance these produce anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: There is not even a remote chance these produce anything And why is that Jay, they are along a warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Just now, sbos_wx said: There is not even a remote chance these produce anything Would you say 7/23/19 is an analog? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: And why is that Jay, they are along a warm front. They are literally thunder showers, maybe a bit more heavy once they cross into NNE. Did you read the AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: They are literally thunder showers, maybe a bit more heavy once they cross into NNE. Did you read the AFD? yes of course I did, I know they aren't the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Once you get a couple TORS once in 100 yrs, Now there going to be the norm with every CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: yes of course I did, I know they aren't the main show. So why on god's green earth would you think a tornado would pop out of one of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 Looks interesting. The cells coming from the southwest are gaining strength. Could be mostly W/MA but the stuff from CN an RI could be performing for round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 watch coming https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1664.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 7, 2019 Author Share Posted August 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: watch coming https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1664.html I think there is a typo in there...they say mlvl lapse rates 6.5-7 C/KM...if that were the case this would be a much bigger event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think there is a typo in there...they say mlvl lapse rates 6.5-7 C/KM...if that were the case this would be a much bigger event That is after the evening hours Paul, it develops later on in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 42 minutes ago, dryslot said: Once you get a couple TORS once in 100 yrs, Now there going to be the norm with every CF. Like how every noreaster is a potential 1/22/05 or 1/15 due to the gulf stream 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 7, 2019 Share Posted August 7, 2019 47 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: So why on god's green earth would you think a tornado would pop out of one of them? Do you really need to ask James? Ha. Cape Cod climo is hurricanes, tornadoes and blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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