Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

[Carvers Gap]

Point and click NWS forecast Fir-Sunday next weekend is upper 70s to low 80s at TRI.  Might be a few degrees above normal, but with lows in the low 50s, going to feel much improved.  The next four days are going to be sweltering, but if the NWS is correct...relief is on the way.  Temps will potentially be 10-15 degrees cooler than the Monday-Thursday temps.  

[nrgjeff]

Might have a problem with the MJO and Kelvin wave. Lots of the convection is south of the Equator which negates some impact. Typhoon is meh Cat 2. Himarwari satellite is depressing. Cooling may be temporary. Look for a return of the SER and AN temps later in Oct. OK not crazy hot, but delays on true fall wx.

[Windspeed]

Might have a problem with the MJO and Kelvin wave. Lots of the convection is south of the Equator which negates some impact. Typhoon is meh Cat 2. Himarwari satellite is depressing. Cooling may be temporary. Look for a return of the SER and AN temps later in Oct. OK not crazy hot, but delays on true fall wx.

Thanks for ruining my day, Jeff. lol...

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Might have a problem with the MJO and Kelvin wave. Lots of the convection is south of the Equator which negates some impact. Typhoon is meh Cat 2. Himarwari satellite is depressing. Cooling may be temporary. Look for a return of the SER and AN temps later in Oct. OK not crazy hot, but delays on true fall wx.

Jeff, weren't you one of they guys last winter who really looked at what was going on in the Indian Ocean in terms of convection.  I know everyone is IOD crazy this year, but seems that was something that you used fairly effectively last winter before it was "cool."  I would go look at previous posts, but am just too lazy.  LOL.  And yeah, the MJO is a mess in phase one for sure.  The EPS last night had one foot in and one foot out in regards to whether it wanted to go with a ridge somewhere east of the Rockies.  I agree that ridge wants to reform in the SE.  I do think it will be strong at times, but with less staying power than this record death ridge.  I think we will see some fronts beat it down.  As you have noted, the SER will likely be something that is persistent.  If we could get some stronger cold fronts during winter that push that SER down, that could allow for some storms to ride that boundary at times.  Maybe we become the new mid-South w/ big snows on marginal temps.  Biggest thing that we need now is some consistent rain which also looks iffy.  I am putting my chips on changing wavelengths as fall progressed which will make it difficult for anything to lock in - more progressive than locked-in.  

[nrgjeff]

Thanks @Carvers Gap but DDC WFO beat me to it 20 years ago when I was at WeatherData in Wichita. We laughed, why are they talking about Indonesia? Fast forward...

I'd used the Navy Monterrey satellite page for years, but it got clunky and unreliable about 10 years ago. Found Kochi University out of Japan. It got unreliable a couple years ago. Still I'm a visual guy. Screw the MJO phase. Give me satellite!

Finally ahead of travel to Japan last year I searched for their weather service, just for simple 7-day forecasts. Figure their Mets know their weather better than me. Viola! Awesome Himawari satellite on.. Of course on their own web-page, lol! 

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/ You can also click on Weather and Earthquakes to get a whole lot of other goodies from their side of the World.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro....are those highs in the low 50s?  Sign me up.  Not a ton of analysis from me as that is just one run and about a week away...but that looked good.

[nrgjeff]

It's a deal if the front brings severe first!

12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro....are those highs in the low 50s?  Sign me up.  Not a ton of analysis from me as that is just one run and about a week away...but that looked good.

 

[Wurbus]

I'm not sure if this is the right place to put this, but I saw this on Twitter and though it was interesting since the most drastic change of the lowest of low temps affects our area and KY.

[nrgjeff]

It's probably right. If one adjusts fronts north 200 miles for climo change, there it is. How often did it used to stall in Tenn? Now it can't get south of the Ohio River.

Southeast Tennessee snow was impeached AND removed from office.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like that Tweet is almost comparing two different AMO phases?  1959-1988 was like the Holy Grail of winter time frames here in E TN.  The cold phase of the AMO is 1964-1995 with just a quick search(hope that is correct).  Since then we have been in the warm phase....negative AMO here is much more conducive to winter IMHO.  Bad thing is, I think we have several more years of positive.  Also, would be interesting to see that graph without the 1990s.  Definitely advantageous to pick 1989 as I can just about say that is the jumping off points for warmer winters here...January 1990.  What that map shows me is that the eastern trough has been less extreme which fits with a +AMO.  

[Carvers Gap]

Getting back on track for pattern discussion...the latest 12z GFS has temps 20-30 degrees cooler than today.  Bring it!  Don't speak to me if it doesn't happen.  LOL.   

[John1122]

43 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Getting back on track for pattern discussion...the latest 12z GFS has temps 20-30 degrees cooler than today.  Bring it!  Don't speak to me if it doesn't happen.  LOL.   

 

It also is pretty wet for early next week. Need a good soaker before fire season truly hits. Had a decent one yesterday but over a very small area, probably a 4 mile circle around my house. 

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, John1122 said:

 

It also is pretty wet for early next week. Need a good soaker before fire season truly hits. Had a decent one yesterday but over a very small area, probably a 4 mile circle around my house. 

Much needed for sure.  Really the run from Friday on has some very nice weather for E TN...though  there is a slight rebound of temps over portions of the southern forum are over the weekend.  Next week though...looks awesome!  Pretty strong front rolled through early next week.  Still a week out there...but better than looking at 16 days straight of +15F temps.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro brings some nice rain.  Most of these totals, if not all for most areas, comes from the passage of the cold front early next week.  I think this map gets most of the forum area.  This is a ways out there so I am sure it will change.  I like that the Euro has some consistency along with the GFS.  And to think we were getting 1-2" minimum with every storm last spring!  (I don't remember this prior, but the new upgrade allows for mass deletion of attachments.) 

[iluvsnow]

Carver, can you extend that precip map to include the Ohio Valley. We are desperate for rain, as well. Thanks,

[Carvers Gap]

22 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Carver, can you extend that precip map to include the Ohio Valley. We are desperate for rain, as well. Thanks,

Here you go.  

[iluvsnow]

Thanks Carver....looks like you guys are going to be luckier than us.

[nrgjeff]

Actually the AMO graph is quite relevant. Guess what? AN temps again middle of October. Oh what a surprise, lol!

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Actually the AMO graph is quite relevant. Guess what? AN temps again middle of October. Oh what a surprise, lol!

Yeah, that ridge isn't going to get pushed down without a fight.  I thought the Euro Weeklies actually looked decent for weeks 4-6(guess that would be late Oct or early Nov...I will have to go back and look as that is off the top of my head) with maybe some form of a trough over the EC developing then.  Now, we all know how well those troughs have verified, but at some point it has to be right, right?  LOL..  Also, seems like the AN is just AN and not much AN...more like upper 70s with averages in the low 70s.  Just no more upper 80s and mid 90s please.  Although, it wouldn't surprise me to see a high temp record or two set as a cold front heads SE and warming surges northeast along the front side of the front.   I also thought there were actually some decent little fronts embedded within the overall daily pattern of the Weeklies this time - meaning the endless summer is over.  But yeah, looks like weeks 2-3 is a return of the ridge(not a death ridge) with embedded cold fronts which periodically push it back.   Overall, I am just ready to give Phoenix back its climatology - one more day!

[Carvers Gap]

Some fairly chilly mid-day model runs by the 12z GFS and CMC with two fronts driving south next week.  I did mention a bonus in banter...

[Carvers Gap]

Really nice run of the 12z EPS today as it keeps the ridge out of our area beginning Monday.  Tries to establish and then gets beat down...pops back up in the nation's midsection.  Cool down for NE TN beginning Friday(southern areas and mid-state see some rebound Sat and Sun of temps)...all areas with a nice cool down(in some cases the 24 hour temp change will be 25ish degrees) by Monday evening if things hold as is.

[Carvers Gap]

6z GEFS and 0z EPS again look really decent.  I did dare to peak at the CFS Monthly/Seasonal this morning and it is singing a similar tune. I am definitely gun shy as modeling across the board has signaled these changes before and totally whiffed.  I also looked at the MJO and some modeling is showing it weakening into the COD.  So, maybe there is something to this.  I would be surprised if that ridge doesn't come back one last time, but trends right now are away from a ridge long term.  Now, I am not calling for any winter like temps or anything like that, but....considering that we have been in the 90s for like forever, temps will feel much cooler even if average.  So, some good signs this AM with the main emphasis being that whatever ridge pops back up...cold fronts build in the northern front range of the Rockies and barrel SE.  No matter what comes after, really looking forward to next week.  I am definitely aware of extracurricular HS activities that have had to be rescheduled due to the heat.  So, for those folks out there practicing in this...relief should be welcome next week!

[Carvers Gap]

What is interesting in modeling is blocking up top, especially over the Hudson Bay, and a trough intermittently showing up east of Hawaii.   The ridge that is portrayed sometimes over the HB is tricky.  Sometimes it slides eastward and hooks up with the ridge over Greenland - not good for cold temps.  However, sometimes it remains separate on some runs which is why I think there is so much dancing around by modeling.  And sometimes that ridge sets up over the GL area which is not good either.  Trends to watch and not a forecast.  Just kicking around ideas.

[tnweathernut]

I don't like pinning all my hope on the setup shown on the overnight Euro.  Frontal rains don't excite me and we are WAY too dry currently. We need something tropical out of the gulf to link up with a front.  Maybe two or three something tropicals over a 2 week period of time............lol

[Carvers Gap]

Another stellar run of both the 12z EPS and GEFS.  Makes me nervous when those two are in sync, especially this far out.  EPS(and GEFS) is showing more signs of a stable eastern trough in the d10-15....which actually teleconnects very well with 4 lobes of warm and 4 lobes of cold in the northern hemisphere.  What is that called again?  @Coach B I am ready to fire-up the wood stove.   

[Carvers Gap]

QBO has fallen to 8.25...if its pattern holds from previous drops, it likely drops fairly quickly at some point between now and winter.  Glad to see it is still falling.  

[AMZ8990]

Well fellas, it feels wonderful this morning on my way into work.  The clammy heat is gone and I’ve got my long sleeves and jeans on!!  Cool weather for the win finally!!  Let’s hope summer temps are fine for good now!  Hope everyone is doing well..

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z CMC and GFS are not warm in the medium and LR...and that is not just d10-15 talk.  Looks like a second front will come through next weekend and then a third after d10 if the GFS is to be believed...always a big "if."   First frost is hinted at on both with even some fantasy flurries late in the run...though I would not be surprised if the models continue trending.  Again, let's see if these trends hold...we have seen this before.   So, I am just going to enjoy the purple and the blues of the anomaly parameters for now.   

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z CMC and GFS are not warm in the medium and LR...and that is not just d10-15 talk.  Looks like a second front will come through next weekend and then a third after d10 if the GFS is to be believed...always a big "if."   First frost is hinted at on both with even some fantasy flurries late in the run...though I would not be surprised if the models continue trending.  Again, let's see if these trends hold...we have seen this before.   So, I am just going to enjoy the purple and the blues of the anomaly parameters for now.   

Trough going through East Asia today and then a couple more right now every 3-4 days after, showing by the Euro,so seemingly we could have 3 troughs upcoming after this one in a couple days,but we'll see.Seems like after that lots of  of uncertainy,where is the MJO? If the easterlies into the IO is RIGHT by the CFS this could last into Nov.So the MJO could become incoherent upcoming.Seems like this is what the seasonal European Centre  is showing,tho certainly  with spread.Think like Jeff said we'll warm up again just after the mid month

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Trough going through East Asia today and then a couple more right now every 3-4 days after, showing by the Euro,so seemingly we could have 3 troughs upcoming after this one in a couple days,but we'll see.Seems like after that lots of  of uncertainy,where is the MJO? If the easterlies into the IO is RIGHT by the CFS this could last into Nov.So the MJO could become incoherent upcoming.Seems like this is what the seasonal European Centre  is showing,tho certainly  with spread.Think like Jeff said we'll warm up again just after the mid month

Yeah, plenty of uncertainty for sure.  I am not convinced that SER comes back(as a permanent feature) during the second half of October for more than a few days at a time (if that), but it has been a stubborn feature.  When in doubt, bet the streak.  With the MJO going into the COD, the ridge that was locked into the East might not actually stay.   The GEFS and EPS and Euro Weeklies and the morning run of the the seasonal CFS(off the top of my head...check that) now show a stout ridge in the West w a decent Eastern trough during days 10-15.  That has fooled many before including me, so need to see that inside of d10 before giving it credence - but some models actually have the reversal at days 8-9 now.  What I am seeing certainly looks like a complete pattern flip over North America by weeks 3 or 4 of October....but just too far out to really "buy in" yet.  I think the possibility of the ridge coming back is certainly on the table as it has been there for like ten months pretty consistently.  However, I think maybe a more likely possibility is the the ridge might actually be gone for several weeks or more.    Next couple of weeks will feature shorter wave lengths which will allow sharp warm-ups and sharp cold shots.  I am starting to lean towards a trough establishing itself in the East...but the pattern has been for models to show this in the LR and then go right back to a SER in terms of actual verification.  I actually like seeing that MJO go into the COD and seeing the daily SOI crash along with a falling QBO.  So, if we actually have a weak El Nino...we could see a cool-ish November(a key indicator for John...and a good one) with maybe a pattern relaxation in December and back to cool wx for Jan/Feb.  Right now my frame of reference is out of whack because "cool temps" are relative to this 90s stuff and even slightly AN seems to feel way better.  I mean we set a record high up here today and the wx felt much better.  LOL.   Overall, I think we have several more warm days during the next ten days along with several seasonal or even BN days...but I think the possibility for a true pattern change is a much more realistic notion than say maybe a week ago.  Honestly, I think we may see some pretty cold air masses moving in by the end of the month...but just a hunch.  Would be pretty wild to have mid 90s to start the month for highs and mid 40s near the end of the month...probably more like mid 50s.  Still, what a range.