Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

[nrgjeff]

MJO will stall hot phases. Continue -AAM. SER forever.

[Carvers Gap]

Hmm.  The daily input of the SOI has popped positive today.  Have to thinks a shake-up is coming with that moving.   The ridge on global ensembles is starting to take a beating around day 9.  Now the real question, "Is it real?"  I have said it for a couple of days...it will be really tough for the a ridge to hold in place as the seasons change.  The wavelengths change(JB mentions that today...my comments precede his).   Now, the ridge my return once we enter winter and longer wavelengths return.  Back to the SOI, the really negative numbers of the SOI correspond with our record heat.  It is always good to remember that MJO phases during winter get different results during different seasons.  The SOI movement could signal that the MJO is getting ready to move, and we need it out of phase 1 in order for things to cool down.  Now if the SOI stays positive for long enough it could pull the 30 and 90 day averages into positive territory.  That will take a while as some big negative numbers were posted during September.  It "may" signal that these dry, hot conditions are likely from some sort of Nina background in the atmosphere.  Hear that before?  All of last winter!  Anyway, what might result are some extreme air masses later on down the line.  Right now we are experiencing extreme heat?  Does it flip, even if briefly, and deliver a strong cold shot into the East?  Maybe.  Models have hinted at that.  Just some things I was kicking around today.   Maybe we can get Jeff in here and see if he is ready to hop off the "hot" train yet?  Hot about the SER and hot about the NCAA! LOL.  I generally don't start looking for any type of cool down until he is on board and judging from his last post...not good.  Jeff, do you see any potential for a pattern break in mid-October?

[nrgjeff]

SOI is blowing up and we're getting some convection around the Dateline. Unfortunately it's just one blob, not a mass flare up. I'm looking at Japan's Himawari. If the 12Z Euro follows the 00Z, which had a good front Day 9-10, I'll start to believe. Post will be concluded after the 12Z Euro.

Conclusion: 12Z Euro slows/stalls front. I think we should wait until it's within Day 7.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

SOI is blowing up and we're getting some convection around the Dateline. Unfortunately it's just one blob, not a mass flare up. I'm looking at Japan's Himawari. If the 12Z Euro follows the 00Z, which had a good front Day 9-10, I'll start to believe. Post will be concluded after the 12Z Euro.

Conclusion: 12Z Euro slows/stalls front. I think we should wait until it's within Day 7.

Yeah, definitely stalled it which has been the case ad nauseam for months on end.  I do like that the GEFS and GEPS look decent after day nine and have held those looks for a few runs.  But have to have the Euro on board....it has been stubborn to break the pattern and has been correct pretty much every time.  I do hold out hope that it is often the last model to see a relaxation in the pattern or pattern change.  But hey, at least we have some models with a front inside of day 10.  LOL.  Until then, we are going to absolutely roast this weekend and into early next week.  MRX put out a graphic now about the chance for the 4+ consecutive record highs to fall beginning on Friday.  

[nrgjeff]

It's true the GFS sees cooler pattern changes first. Might be too fast, but it sees them. I figure it's on the way eventually. Late Update: EPS still has the front.

Oh but it wouldn't be me without a bearish thought. Forgot to post a few days back what many may have seen from Griteater. -QBO stalled, not descending at the moment. It's like a bad song from the Disney Descendants movie, lol!

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

It's true the GFS sees cooler pattern changes first. Might be too fast, but it sees them. I figure it's on the way eventually. Late Update: EPS still has the front.

Oh but it wouldn't be me without a bearish thought. Forgot to post a few days back what many may have seen from Griteater. -QBO stalled, not descending at the moment. It's like a bad song from the Disney Descendants movie, lol!

LOL.  I have managed not see D3(won’t admit to seeing the first two...) but I have heard it and lots of singing kids from the other room.  The QBO is an odd deal.  It does stall from time to time while riding and falling.  What I don’t want to see is something similar to the the last drop where it stalled, when back up for an entire second cycle(never went negative), and then finally fell.  I guess what it means is that we might see it finally go negative during late winter vs early or mid.  We just need it falling to quote a famous Jayhawk fan.  I think if we can get that by late October or November...good news. Absolutely don’t want to see it going back up...not sure how many times that has happened before(referring to the last double dip that allowed for a double positive cycle).  Descendants 3 and the potential prolonging of summer...way to bring those together!  Just what I needed.   

If not a pattern change, let’s at least get that front to pass through the entire forum area!

[jaxjagman]

Highly variable conditions were observed across the South, with intense late-summer heat and acute short-term dryness in southwestern and northeastern portions of the region contrasting with heavy to excessive rainfall across the west-central Gulf Coast and from western Texas northeastward into central and southern Oklahoma. Tropical Storm Imelda moved slowly ashore near Freeport, Texas, drifting northward while producing prodigious rainfall totals (20-30 inches, locally more) south and east of Houston. Heavy rain (2-8 inches) was also noted further inland across eastern Texas, western Louisiana, and southeastern Oklahoma, easing or alleviating Abnormal Dryness (D0) as well as Moderate to Severe Drought (D1 and D2). Farther west, widespread heavy showers (1-5 inches, locally more) from Texas’ Big Bend northeastward into central and southeastern Oklahoma (a peak value of 7.66 inches was noted in Antlers, OK) likewise supported aggressive reductions to drought intensity and coverage.

Conversely, excessive heat (daytime highs approaching or topping 100°F) and pronounced short-term dryness (60-day rainfall totaling locally less than 20 percent of normal) heightened evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture losses, resulting in quickly escalating drought impacts (often referred to as a “flash drought”.) It should be noted that “flash drought” impacts often arise more quickly than the rainfall data would suggest due to the accompanying heat. For this week’s analysis, the expansion of D0 (Abnormal Dryness) as well as Moderate (D1) to Extreme Drought (D3) was driven by guidance from local experts, impact reports from observers, as well as temperature- and rainfall-driven data products which focused on the past 60 to 90 days. Increases in drought were most pronounced from the Rio Grande toward Dallas, Texas, and from the central Delta into Tennessee. State-wide average topsoil moisture was rated more than 70 percent short to very short (according to USDA-NASS) as of September 22 in Arkansas (78 percent poor to very poor), Mississippi (83 percent), and Tennessee (89 percent, a 14-point jump over last week).

[Blue Ridge]

Well, that escalated quickly...

[Carvers Gap]

37 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Highly variable conditions were observed across the South, with intense late-summer heat and acute short-term dryness in southwestern and northeastern portions of the region contrasting with heavy to excessive rainfall across the west-central Gulf Coast and from western Texas northeastward into central and southern Oklahoma. Tropical Storm Imelda moved slowly ashore near Freeport, Texas, drifting northward while producing prodigious rainfall totals (20-30 inches, locally more) south and east of Houston. Heavy rain (2-8 inches) was also noted further inland across eastern Texas, western Louisiana, and southeastern Oklahoma, easing or alleviating Abnormal Dryness (D0) as well as Moderate to Severe Drought (D1 and D2). Farther west, widespread heavy showers (1-5 inches, locally more) from Texas’ Big Bend northeastward into central and southeastern Oklahoma (a peak value of 7.66 inches was noted in Antlers, OK) likewise supported aggressive reductions to drought intensity and coverage.

Conversely, excessive heat (daytime highs approaching or topping 100°F) and pronounced short-term dryness (60-day rainfall totaling locally less than 20 percent of normal) heightened evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture losses, resulting in quickly escalating drought impacts (often referred to as a “flash drought”.) It should be noted that “flash drought” impacts often arise more quickly than the rainfall data would suggest due to the accompanying heat. For this week’s analysis, the expansion of D0 (Abnormal Dryness) as well as Moderate (D1) to Extreme Drought (D3) was driven by guidance from local experts, impact reports from observers, as well as temperature- and rainfall-driven data products which focused on the past 60 to 90 days. Increases in drought were most pronounced from the Rio Grande toward Dallas, Texas, and from the central Delta into Tennessee. State-wide average topsoil moisture was rated more than 70 percent short to very short (according to USDA-NASS) as of September 22 in Arkansas (78 percent poor to very poor), Mississippi (83 percent), and Tennessee (89 percent, a 14-point jump over last week).

Impressive increase of drought conditions and at a terrible time of the year for that.  Hopefully, we can get this dry pattern to break in a couple of weeks...or it is gonna get bad.

[jaxjagman]

Believe the RMMM'S are seeing nothing but destructive interference with the MJO.Think it's more progressive than what they are showing upcoming.

[nrgjeff]

I'll buy the front around October 5 a Saturday. Should finally scour dews for a while too. Ensembles 11-15 day point to a return fetch into the Plains vs here. Yeah, that might be a separate interest, lol!

However I figure most of October is warmer than normal. A look at MJO/Kelvin wave analogs 4/5 remain warm. The only cold is 1976, um no. The rest have the MJO stall or slow down before digging into colder phases. Warm late October may not be blasting AC. Just delay heating. 

So far I'm still a real winter skeptic. No source region. QBO needs to get going and not stall like a few years back. If so, yup I'm still in the school of trend vs snapshot. Leaving the door cracked open. 

[Carvers Gap]

The real question...Are we going to get any appreciable precip during the next three weeks?  

[nrgjeff]

Probably not. Should I look at some charts, or just keep going off? Just go off. No rain. 

ECMWF and CFS weeklies are both... Take a wild guess y'all. AN temps BN precip.

[ShawnEastTN]

Even with it likely just fantasy it's nice to see 6z GFS with 540 thickness making it into Upper East Tennessee at hour 294....

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[jaxjagman]

Yeah the weeklies were sad.Nashville is on pace to be the driest month in Sept on record for rains, 0.02.The previous was 0.13 back in 1903.

 

National Weather Service Nashville TN
702 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2019

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front settled across the Tn Valley yesterday with
scattered showers. Now the leftover moisture has helped produce
pockets of dense fog, especially across the Upper Cumberland
Region. A Dense Fog Advisory has already been issued for the
northeast half of the Mid State. Satellite/vsby trends will be
monitored and the advisory will be expanded farther southwest if
needed. The dense fog will lift by 9 AM CDT.

The diffuse frontal zone will lift northward today allowing hot
and humid conditions to develop. As this happens, isolated showers
or brief thunderstorms could form, mainly east of I-65. Otherwise,
south winds will kick in and temperatures will climb into the
summer-like lower 90s, except mid to upper 80s Plateau.

Through the weekend and into next week, a strong upper level ridge
will build with the main center across the Lower Ms Valley and Tn
Valley Valley Regions. This will help boost high temperatures to
record levels. Despite the impressive strength of the ridge, it
will be a bit "dirty" with some pockets of moisture. The position
of a surface high along the east coast will work with the moisture
to produce isolated showers/storms at times mainly along the
Cumberland Plateau. Unfortunately, this will not be enough rain to
make a significant dent in the worsening drought and fire danger
conditions. As we have been seeing for a while in this warm
pattern, model guidance numbers are not nearly warm enough with
the forecast highs. We will continue to go with our NBM (National
Blend of Models) through the forecast period.

Here are some BNA records for this forecast period...

Date   Hi Year
Sep 28 94 1986
Sep 29 98 1953
Sep 30 93 1953
Oct 1  94 1953
Oct 2  91 1953
Oct 3  92 1903

Note: the all-time record high for October of 94 degrees at
Nashville and 86 degrees at Crossville may be broken.

The upper ridge will begin to weaken and shift back southeastward
late next week, which may allow a weak cold front to make it down
into Tennessee around Thursday. However, some models are keeping
the ridge in place or only backing it off temporarily. Even if we
get some showers and relief from the record heat, the overall
warm and dry pattern is likely to continue well into October.

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z SEP27
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
FRI 00Z 27-SEP                  72.7    67.8    36003                     61    
FRI 06Z 27-SEP  72.7    67.3    67.3    64.6    07003                     16    
FRI 12Z 27-SEP  67.8    66.7    67.9    67.0    15005   0.00    0.00      71    
FRI 18Z 27-SEP  90.6    67.9    90.8    63.4    21006   0.00    0.00      22    
SAT 00Z 28-SEP  92.2    81.1    80.8    66.0    18005   0.01    0.00      18    
SAT 06Z 28-SEP  80.8    74.8    74.8    65.7    17005   0.00    0.00       1    
SAT 12Z 28-SEP  74.9    72.5    72.8    65.9    20004   0.00    0.00       5    
SAT 18Z 28-SEP  92.6    72.8    92.7    61.3    22007   0.00    0.00      89    
SUN 00Z 29-SEP  93.6    82.3    81.9    63.2    19004   0.00    0.00      60    
SUN 06Z 29-SEP  81.9    73.3    73.7    64.1    14001   0.00    0.00      24    
SUN 12Z 29-SEP  74.8    71.3    71.9    65.5    16004   0.00    0.00      67    
SUN 18Z 29-SEP  92.8    71.9    92.8    61.5    21003   0.00    0.00      47    
MON 00Z 30-SEP  93.7    83.9    83.7    65.7    11003   0.00    0.00      20    
MON 06Z 30-SEP  84.2    75.4    75.2    65.1    18004   0.00    0.00       4    
MON 12Z 30-SEP  75.2    71.7    72.2    67.3    16003   0.00    0.00       2    
MON 18Z 30-SEP  93.4    72.1    93.6    65.2    22001   0.00    0.00      25    
TUE 00Z 01-OCT  94.4    84.7    84.4    70.1    12001   0.00    0.00      11    
TUE 06Z 01-OCT  84.5    77.2    77.1    67.9    19004   0.00    0.00       1    
TUE 12Z 01-OCT  77.2    74.0    74.5    67.2    17005   0.00    0.00       5    
TUE 18Z 01-OCT  94.0    74.5    94.1    64.3    24003   0.00    0.00      27    
WED 00Z 02-OCT  94.9    85.4    85.1    66.6    14003   0.00    0.00      18    
WED 06Z 02-OCT  85.2    76.9    76.8    65.8    20004   0.00    0.00       2    
WED 12Z 02-OCT  76.9    73.2    73.9    65.4    18004   0.00    0.00       5    
WED 18Z 02-OCT  94.6    73.9    94.7    62.8    27003   0.00    0.00      23    
THU 00Z 03-OCT  95.5    85.2    84.9    66.0    05001   0.00    0.00      29    
THU 06Z 03-OCT  85.2    77.5    77.4    65.2    19004   0.00    0.00      15    
THU 12Z 03-OCT  77.5    73.5    74.0    66.1    24003   0.00    0.00      12    
THU 18Z 03-OCT  95.1    73.9    95.1    64.0    29004   0.00    0.00      42    
FRI 00Z 04-OCT  95.2    86.0    85.6    63.7    33004   0.00    0.00      27    
FRI 06Z 04-OCT  85.6    76.9    76.8    65.1    36006   0.00    0.00      10    
FRI 12Z 04-OCT  76.8    71.5    71.5    66.9    01005   0.00    0.00      22    
FRI 18Z 04-OCT  91.1    71.5    91.3    64.5    36004   0.00    0.00       8    
SAT 00Z 05-OCT  92.4    84.0    83.7    61.6    00006   0.00    0.00      21    
SAT 06Z 05-OCT  83.7    75.2    75.1    61.3    04005   0.00    0.00       7    
SAT 12Z 05-OCT  75.1    70.8    70.9    60.4    07004   0.00    0.00      17    
SAT 18Z 05-OCT  92.6    70.9    92.8    63.1    24002   0.00    0.00      29    
SUN 00Z 06-OCT  94.0    82.2    81.9    64.9    16004   0.01    0.00      37    
SUN 06Z 06-OCT  81.9    76.3    76.4    64.4    16005   0.00    0.00      19    
SUN 12Z 06-OCT  76.9    75.1    75.1    65.1    16006   0.00    0.00      30    
SUN 18Z 06-OCT  93.1    75.1    93.3    59.9    20004   0.00    0.00      12    
MON 00Z 07-OCT  94.7    80.7    80.4    62.2    10005   0.01    0.00      54    

[Carvers Gap]

I think we do get a break by mid-October.  I think the GEFS is just too quick.  Not a great sign that the Euro Weeklies are not on board, but they absolutely don't see BN temps past week 3-4 right now - and that has verified poorly.  Plus the Weeklies have been fairly terrible since about last December.  Plenty of cold on the map today, just not here.  The biggest thing is what Typhoon Tip noted on the main board's ENSO page which is that the northern hemisphere's atmospheric pattern has some eddies that won't break.  The persistent buckle over the NW is one IMO.  Anyway, I think the much AN stuff eventually backs off by mid October and maybe even sets the stage for a rather cool November.  Cause anything is cooler than right now, right?  Easy call.  That is just an educated hunch which is open for debate.  Meanwhile, the next couple of weeks are gonna be scorchers with maybe the extreme stuff backing off by day 8-9...maybe.  

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting article.  Saw HM or one of those guys like a Tweet from this page.  Decent write-up about the potential upcoming winter, warts and all.

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/09/27/late-september-northern-hemisphere-2019-20-winter-outlook/

 

[jaxjagman]

I think we do get a break by mid-October.  I think the GEFS is just too quick.  Not a great sign that the Euro Weeklies are not on board, but they absolutely don't see BN temps past week 3-4 right now - and that has verified poorly.  Plus the Weeklies have been fairly terrible since about last December.  Plenty of cold on the map today, just not here.  The biggest thing is what Typhoon Tip noted on the main board's ENSO page which is that the northern hemisphere's atmospheric pattern has some eddies that won't break.  The persistent buckle over the NW is one IMO.  Anyway, I think the much AN stuff eventually backs off by mid October and maybe even sets the stage for a rather cool November.  Cause anything is cooler than right now, right?  Easy call.  That is just an educated hunch which is open for debate.  Meanwhile, the next couple of weeks are gonna be scorchers with maybe the extreme stuff backing off by day 8-9...maybe.  

Anyone having problems with the board?


.

[PowellVolz]

Anyone having problems with the board?


.

Seems to be working fine for me.


.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Seems to be working fine for me.


.

Thanks,believe the board did an update or upgrade one last night

[jaxjagman]

Broke the record here yesterday,should go down again today.Doubt we hit 98 Sunday but the rest of these days it should go down.Good news anyways looks like a cold front Friday but like all the fronts it looks probably dry right now,but at least we could get more closer to climo with temps,but we need rain

DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT NASHVILLE
Date          Record     Year     Forecast
Fri Sep 27      93       1998        93
Sat Sep 28      94       1986        95
Sun Sep 29      98       1953        96
Mon Sep 30      93       1953        97
Tue Oct 1       94       1953        97
Wed Oct 2       91       1953        95
Thu Oct 3       92       1903        93

DAILY RECORD AND FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT CROSSVILLE

Date          Record     Year     Forecast
Fri Sep 27      87       1998        86
Sat Sep 28      87       1998        88
Sun Sep 29      84       1986        89
Mon Sep 30      86       1998        90
Tue Oct 1       84       1956        90
Wed Oct 2       86       1986        88
Thu Oct 3       84       1986        87

OCTOBER MONTHLY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

Location      Record        Date
Nashville       94       Oct 1 1953
Crossville      86       Oct 7 2007*

[Carvers Gap]

20 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Anyone having problems with the board?


.

Yeah, couldn't see anything with the update and white font.  Might be working now.  

[jaxjagman]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, couldn't see anything with the update and white font.  Might be working now.  

Thinks it's back to norm now,fingers crossed

[jaxjagman]

We didn't break our record today,thanks to more clouds held the thermals down but we did hit 92.

The MJO on the RMM'S continue to show it stalled out into P1,i'm starting to think they may be right as a Rossby Wave  is going through the IO then into Africa upcoming days helping stop the progression of it,but we'll see.MV's maps has done rather well tho  and still shows it more progressive.Probably need to wait and see at this stage.good news tho the Euro still shows a cold front towards Friday and closer to seasonal temps,bad news it still looks dry right now

[jaxjagman]

Probably the best trough we've seen since spring time in East Asia if it teleconnects right would be another decent cool down towards the middle of the month,The Euro is already hinting at building the Upper Level Ridge tho once again after the cool down possibly next weekend afterwards,could be just another dry front.It's really tough to get rid of a drought than get into one,we seen this recently

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like if we can actually prove that a cold front can get through the forum area lat next week, the post frontal pattern may be warm but not extreme.  More like a few degrees above normal vs. 10-15 AN.  Also the pattern looks like one where the SER tries to rebuild, but the pattern becomes a bit more progressive and allows it to take hold for a few days at a time vs weeks at a time.  We will see.  Fingers crossed.  Just get the 90s the heck out of here until next summer.  Going to break a bunch records it appears prior to that front.  

[jaxjagman]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks like if we can actually prove that a cold front can get through the forum area lat next week, the post frontal pattern may be warm but not extreme.  More like a few degrees above normal vs. 10-15 AN.  Also the pattern looks like one where the SER tries to rebuild, but the pattern becomes a bit more progressive and allows it to take hold for a few days at a time vs weeks at a time.  We will see.  Fingers crossed.  Just get the 90s the heck out of here until next summer.  Going to break a bunch records it appears prior to that front.  

Its so odd tho with the ENSO,IN 1953 next week where record temps are showing possible this was in a Nino in 1953 that went into a long lived LaNina, the oceans right now look like they might warm into a ElNino  and not LaNina upcoming,maybe more emphasis into global warming?Not sure

[jaxjagman]

I'll believe it when i see it

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z SEP29 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 29-SEP 82.5 65.2 15005 93 SUN 06Z 29-SEP 82.8 75.1 75.0 66.2 18003 40 SUN 12Z 29-SEP 75.0 71.7 72.2 66.2 17004 0.00 0.00 12 SUN 18Z 29-SEP 91.8 72.2 91.9 64.1 20003 0.00 0.00 31 MON 00Z 30-SEP 92.8 83.8 83.5 66.9 15005 0.00 0.00 27 MON 06Z 30-SEP 83.5 76.0 75.8 68.8 15003 0.00 0.00 84 MON 12Z 30-SEP 75.8 73.0 73.3 68.6 16003 0.00 0.00 36 MON 18Z 30-SEP 94.2 73.4 94.4 64.3 23003 0.00 0.00 28 TUE 00Z 01-OCT 95.2 86.2 85.6 66.3 12003 0.00 0.00 11 TUE 06Z 01-OCT 85.6 76.3 76.2 65.1 18003 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 12Z 01-OCT 76.2 71.2 72.1 65.1 18003 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 01-OCT 95.8 72.1 96.0 60.1 24002 0.00 0.00 27 WED 00Z 02-OCT 97.2 85.8 85.6 63.8 07002 0.00 0.00 4 WED 06Z 02-OCT 86.0 76.2 76.1 60.9 17004 0.00 0.00 2 WED 12Z 02-OCT 76.6 74.2 74.5 63.2 19005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 02-OCT 96.3 74.5 96.5 60.4 28004 0.00 0.00 17 THU 00Z 03-OCT 97.4 86.8 86.4 62.6 24002 0.00 0.00 11 THU 06Z 03-OCT 86.5 76.7 76.6 64.2 29004 0.00 0.00 0 THU 12Z 03-OCT 77.9 73.3 73.4 65.2 21002 0.00 0.00 4 THU 18Z 03-OCT 95.7 73.3 95.9 63.5 30004 0.00 0.00 17 FRI 00Z 04-OCT 96.6 86.7 86.6 65.4 26002 0.00 0.00 34 FRI 06Z 04-OCT 86.6 78.5 78.3 63.8 36007 0.00 0.00 11 FRI 12Z 04-OCT 78.3 71.3 71.3 65.4 01006 0.00 0.00 17 FRI 18Z 04-OCT 87.7 71.3 87.9 64.6 02006 0.00 0.00 29 SAT 00Z 05-OCT 89.6 81.6 81.3 61.8 02007 0.00 0.00 4 SAT 06Z 05-OCT 81.3 73.1 72.9 59.0 04005 0.00 0.00 2 SAT 12Z 05-OCT 72.9 69.1 69.2 58.9 06004 0.00 0.00 3 SAT 18Z 05-OCT 92.5 69.2 92.7 62.7 18004 0.00 0.00 8 SUN 00Z 06-OCT 94.1 76.5 76.3 71.4 33004 0.07 0.00 69 SUN 06Z 06-OCT 76.6 73.8 76.2 65.5 15008 0.02 0.00 27 SUN 12Z 06-OCT 77.3 74.2 74.7 66.6 17010 0.00 0.00 20 SUN 18Z 06-OCT 87.6 74.7 86.9 65.5 19009 0.01 0.00 39 MON 00Z 07-OCT 88.1 74.5 74.5 69.6 16004 0.11 0.00 56 MON 06Z 07-OCT 75.0 69.6 69.4 68.8 16007 0.39 0.00 96 MON 12Z 07-OCT 69.5 68.6 68.8 68.6 17008 0.23 0.00 100 MON 18Z 07-OCT 72.6 68.8 72.1 70.8 19008 0.41 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 08-OCT 73.4 68.7 68.6 68.5 17005 0.60 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 08-OCT 69.1 68.1 68.2 68.0 16007 0.64 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 08-OCT 69.3 65.7 65.2 64.6 23010 0.95 0.00 93 TUE 18Z 08-OCT 65.7 59.9 63.2 50.7 24011 0.02 0.00 100 WED 00Z 09-OCT 63.7 59.4 59.3 46.6 26008 0.00 0.00 86

[jaxjagman]

We'll have to wait and see if it's right,looks to be a KW  into the Eastern Pac today and with the MJO will possibly kick off some tropical cyclogenesis into the GOM,at the same time a  cold front swings through,seems like the perfect storm for us right now as dry as we've been

[Carvers Gap]

Pattern looks fairly progressive after Friday...which is about 100x better than what we have had and better than what the next four days hold.  The ridge will not easily disperse, but looks like some typical fall cold fronts will at least knock it back.