Tennessee Valley 2019 Fall Speculation/Forecasting

[nrgjeff]

I was on my butt with the flu since the weekend. I'll take Dixie Alley severe as SER departs and worry about cold later. Just kidding! Well, not really, but...

GFS is probably too fast with the frozen 11-15 day; however, one might use the GFS as the heads-up to start looking for cold on the EPS. The latter wants to dump West first. Anybody surprised there? Euro Op just went colder 6-10 day but the EPS is muted there. The latter still keeps the 11-15 day meh in the Southeast. 

All that said, I'm starting to buy a possible cold snap later the first week of December. Late 11-15 day forecasts are consistent with building North Pac to AK ridging. By then the West Pac typhoon stuff will have run its course; so, one would think the models could be trusted on such a broad pattern in a more core winter month of Dec.

If the MJO does not die, but goes into a colder phase with some strength, that would also help. IOD and Nino favor the colder phases. Cooler (relative to normal) water near Indonesia could mute warmer phases. Might still be early for SSW to help with cold, but if that keeps up the table could be set for later in winter. 

Bottom line: I favor the slower west-to-east European version. Gets cold in here after December 1. 

[Daniel Boone]

 Glad youre on the mend Jeff. Great to have u back.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

I was on my butt with the flu since the weekend. I'll take Dixie Alley severe as SER departs and worry about cold later. Just kidding! Well, not really, but...

GFS is probably too fast with the frozen 11-15 day; however, one might use the GFS as the heads-up to start looking for cold on the EPS. The latter wants to dump West first. Anybody surprised there? Euro Op just went colder 6-10 day but the EPS is muted there. The latter still keeps the 11-15 day meh in the Southeast. 

All that said, I'm starting to buy a possible cold snap later the first week of December. Late 11-15 day forecasts are consistent with building North Pac to AK ridging. By then the West Pac typhoon stuff will have run its course; so, one would think the models could be trusted on such a broad pattern in a more core winter month of Dec.

If the MJO does not die, but goes into a colder phase with some strength, that would also help. IOD and Nino favor the colder phases. Cooler (relative to normal) water near Indonesia could mute warmer phases. Might still be early for SSW to help with cold, but if that keeps up the table could be set for later in winter. 

Bottom line: I favor the slower west-to-east European version. Gets cold in here after December 1. 

I knew something was up.  Good to have you back.  

[John1122]

4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I see CPC IS going warm for most of the country for December. Following those climate models. Of course, cpc is warn biased anyway as most of us know.

This was their November forecast.

This is the reality for the first 20 days of the month,

 

[John1122]

Through this same time last year, which was a cold November in and of itself, we are much cooler so far this November.