Wurbus Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 GFS looks like it has a heavy burst of snow for the eastern valley and totals picked up to 2-3 inches across most of TN on the CMC tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Euro is healthy again for almost the entire forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 The NAM really let it ride for the mid-state with 2-4 inches, a good portion of the forum area sees 1-2 inches outside the midstate. I'd guess maybe 1/2 to 1/3rd of it will stick on non-raised surfaces if it come to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Starting to creep into the RGEM range. The snow line is basically north of 40 and to the edge western edge of the plateau by 48 hours. Sleeting/freezing rain event in n Miss/ sw Tn per the RGEM at 48. If the timing stays consistent and there is the advertised post-frontal precip the models are playing out, I figure the night time hours will aid Mid and Western areas with sticking possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Quote Models continue to be in decent agreement overall with the precip event Monday through Tuesday. A strong cold front will push through Monday night as a deep mid/upper level trough digs into the region. Showers will begin moving into western portions of the area late Monday, then overspread the area Monday night. As the cold air pushes in, the rain will transition to snow first on the plateau and higher elevations from west to east, with snow likely to mix in even in valley locations late Monday night. The timing of this rain to snow transition is still uncertain, but some light snow accumulations look likely especially in the higher terrain areas. In the valley, surface temperatures may not dip below freezing in most locations and with the warm ground, significant snow accumulation looks less likely. Will continue to mention the light snow accumulations in the HWO primarily higher elevation areas. Some snow showers and flurries will linger into Tuesday morning, but models show rapid drying aloft leaving just some shallow low level moisture lingering, so expect precipitation to taper off rather quickly. Morning disco from MRX. Hopefully the change over is fast, this is a major cold air mass and they mention possible record lows Wednesday morning. My current point forecast is for a low of 28 with a high of 30 on Tuesday with "less than an inch" wording. Which I suspect will probably be correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Euro times an increase of moisture across the eastern valley and arrival of the 32° mark (4-5am for valley along 75) about as good as it can get in this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Then little brother (6z GFS) says wait hold my beer....lol. Go to bed GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 6z Euro Total Snow and Snow Depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 6 hours ago, John1122 said: Starting to creep into the RGEM range. The snow line is basically north of 40 and to the edge western edge of the plateau by 48 hours. Sleeting/freezing rain event in n Miss/ sw Tn per the RGEM at 48. If the timing stays consistent and there is the advertised post-frontal precip the models are playing out, I figure the night time hours will aid Mid and Western areas with sticking possibilities. You will really like the 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Everything seems to show a little precip. max traveling ENE, just a question of where it sets up. 12z GFS favors Tellico and valley, RGEM John and areas just north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z RGEM is a good thump and still snowing. So is the GFS and the NAM is not bad either at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z RGEM is a good thump and still snowing. So is the GFS and the NAM is not bad either at 12z. Yup, I got The NAM hammer pretty good on that run too. It’s fun to see models spitting out possibilities like this so early in the season. WRF-ARW is in board as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 I’m just here to say “no Snow for you 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 12z Euro staying consistent! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Good old Euro also not too, too far from bringing some version of the legendary Thursday storm back: Potential NW trend over the next 5 days for the win? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Would it be a bad idea to create a forecast/nowcast/obs topic? A whiff is still very much on the table but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 39 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Would it be a bad idea to create a forecast/nowcast/obs topic? A whiff is still very much on the table but... Fortuna iuvet audentes. SREF jumped up for the Great Valley. Likely a good NAMing incoming! Edit: Not quite as good a NAMing as I though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 MRX is seemingly tossing most modeling and going with 1/2 inch below 2500 ft on the Plateau, Central Valley and NE Tn. Can't really blame them. Models seem to often overdo post frontal moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 RGEM is healthy through the end of its run. Still snowing in the eastern areas at the end of the run with this down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 November to date. My house -9 Crossville -8.9 London, KY -9.6 Memphis -9.3 Nashville -7.6 Jackson, Tn -9.8 Huntsville, Al -8.4 Oak Ridge -6.7 Tazewell -6.1 Chattanooga -6 Tri - 7.1 Knox -7.8 Abingdon, Va -6 Cookeville -8.8 Murfreesboro -10.1 (suspect a data issue as it shows Murfreesboro with a high of only 34 on the 4th, other stations have a high in the upper 50s that day in the mid state.) Generally the forum area is -6 to -9 for the month to date so far. It should go down even more with the incoming cold blast. We may finish the first half of the month at -10 or lower. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Hopefully Grits forecast comes to reality on the main page,be nice to have BN and not AN for a change in winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 1 hour ago, John1122 said: November to date. My house -9 Crossville -8.9 London, KY -9.6 Memphis -9.3 Nashville -7.6 Jackson, Tn -9.8 Huntsville, Al -8.4 Oak Ridge -6.7 Tazewell -6.1 Chattanooga -6 Tri - 7.1 Knox -7.8 Abingdon, Va -6 Cookeville -8.8 Murfreesboro -10.1 (suspect a data issue as it shows Murfreesboro with a high of only 34 on the 4th, other stations have a high in the upper 50s that day in the mid state.) Generally the forum area is -6 to -9 for the month to date so far. It should go down even more with the incoming cold blast. We may finish the first half of the month at -10 or lower. Thanks for compiling those. Just an impressively cold start to November. Unless something crazy happens, even with moderation later in the month (not a given) looks like November will likely finish BN or even well BN. @Blue Ridge, with snow predicted on Tuesday...1954 rides again!!!! Just amazing how close this fall has been to '54. I joke about it, but it is becoming a bit uncanny. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 Just looking at the EPS,no real upper level ridge other than S/Florida.Have to wait and see but i think we could see a strong system into the 3rd week of Nov with the wild swings with the SOI recently,guess we'll see Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Nov 2019 1011.08 1010.50 -14.64 -4.71 -8.51 9 Nov 2019 1011.85 1010.70 -11.01 -4.37 -8.38 8 Nov 2019 1013.13 1010.25 -0.00 -4.38 -8.23 7 Nov 2019 1013.77 1008.40 15.84 -4.69 -8.01 6 Nov 2019 1011.56 1009.75 -6.81 -5.28 -7.93 5 Nov 2019 1008.71 1011.25 -34.49 -5.28 -7.64 4 Nov 2019 1008.28 1010.80 -34.36 -4.51 -7.07 3 Nov 2019 1010.91 1009.65 -10.31 -4.05 -6.62 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 TRI's record low on the 13th is 19F. Right now the forecast low is around 16F. So, a chance to break the record low on Wednesday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: TRI's record low on the 13th is 19F. Right now the forecast low is around 16F. So, a chance to break the record low on Wednesday morning. Looks like quite a few records will go down Wed https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/ndfd/ndfd.html# 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 TRI's record low on the 13th is 19F. Right now the forecast low is around 16F. So, a chance to break the record low on Wednesday morning. Breaking record highs in the 90’s almost exactly a month prior to breaking lows now. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted November 11, 2019 Author Share Posted November 11, 2019 39 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Looks like quite a few records will go down Wed https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/ndfd/ndfd.html# Fool moon coming thru for us! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 43 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Breaking record highs in the 90’s almost exactly a month prior to breaking lows now. . Really insane isn't it,Tn Valley at its best so far,our weather can be so volatile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 0z NAM with its beefiest run yet! Widespread 2-4 across the state. High totals out west but may be mixed with a good amount of sleet. Backside snow is stronger this run 10-12z in the valley. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 0z NAM with its beefiest run yet! Widespread 2-4 across the state. High totals out west but may be mixed with a good amount of sleet. Backside snow is stronger this run 10-12z in the valley. Namtastic!!!Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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