Carvers Gap Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 That run is pretty much near perfection. Nearly a foot in middle TN at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Maybe someone can gif that run, but when you hear me talk about a perfect track...that is it. Only problem, 5-7 days out...but that storm just crawls from Thursday to Saturday. Snowing in Memphis on Thursday and does not exit NE TN until Sunday morning. Marginal cold air to work with, but I will take the northwest quadrant of a strengthens slp ten out of ten times. Euro still has room to come West or it could be to wound-up. Fun run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 12z Euro has the Thursday storm. Looks interesting on the Euro.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Maybe someone can gif that run, but when you hear me talk about a perfect track...that is it. Only problem, 5-7 days out...but that storm just crawls from Thursday to Sunday. Snowing in Memphis on Thursday and does not exit NE TN until Sunday morning. Marginal cold air to work with, but I will take the northwest quadrant of a strengthening slp ten out of ten times. Euro still has room to come West or it could be to wound-up. Fun run. edit: NE TN still gets more after this pic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Euro shows the plateau region getting the most snow anywhere in the lower 48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Pivotal Maps has a close up of the Nashville area for the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Frabjoyous, gleeful, fulsome day/ let us enjoy it whilst we may. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 EPS and GEFS interested too: What a beautifully timed dance between 2 short waves: as Carver's said, perfect track! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Not to focus on / give attention to any one particular met, but since I shared a tweet from Webb earlier and he seems to still be dialed in on the evolution of the upcoming pattern and potential storm tracks, I'll share this as well.. If anyone objects please don't hesitate to speak up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Go look at the Euro control for some eye candy. I counted 3-4 "big dogs" on the EPS. Most of the members didn't have much, so we need more support, but something to keep an eye on for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Models today show 1) Ridge in East Mongolia 2) ULL into the Sea of Okhotsk 3) Trough in the East China Sea.Would seem to teleconnect somewhat.Looks like the AO is going to tank mid month,have to wait and see for more runs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Control(EPS) run bombs you guys out in the east,not so much for the central and west.Euro show about 6" for us and 3-4" in the west but less in the east.Be a nice hit for you guys in the east if it's right or even close to be right 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Have to wait several more runs for us in the Valley,when you see these systems into the China Sea they can seemingly could be more suppressed systems into the GOM,The NAO looks more neutral by the GEFS just as well so i wouldn't discount the GFS as being right and the system just cuts through Florida,actually the Euro shpwed this on the OZ.Posted the Euro 5h from this afternoon and last nights .Something to watch anyways,but this seemingly has to be more a perfect storm for us right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Not surprisingly, the Euro is a no-go for the longer range event, but most models are now spitting out 3/4ths to 1.5 inches over a pretty large section of the forum depending on the model. The Euro is Eastern areas, GFS Nashville west along and north of 40. NAM gets Alabama in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 10 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Control(EPS) run bombs you guys out in the east,not so much for the central and west.Euro show about 6" for us and 3-4" in the west but less in the east.Be a nice hit for you guys in the east if it's right or even close to be right Lock it in - funny to see such disparity bet with local mets on this - I do think Nashville National Weather Service even mentions this or has anything besides mostly cloudy in the forecast for this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 hour ago, weathertree4u said: Lock it in - funny to see such disparity bet with local mets on this - I do think Nashville National Weather Service even mentions this or has anything besides mostly cloudy in the forecast for this time period. That's all we ever in general get in OUR parts when there is a low into the Gulf,clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Weather modeling has backed off significantly to a non-event for the Thursday system. Probably not a great sign! That said, weather models are notorious for losing events around the seven day range (for a few model suites). Time will tell. At seven days, I didn't have much invested...plus it is early November. Pretty cool to see alway. Looks like LR modeling is coming into better agreement. Both the 0z GEFS and EPS show some moderation in temps by late next weekend. Then 500 heights fall again under that ridge, and the trough develops. Right now, just looks the trough is doing to set up shop in the East. I hope that continues into December or at least that pattern shows up during winter at some point. The current pattern(if found in mid-January) would have been money. Eight days into the month, TRI is -6.4 which is an impressive departure considering that October was +5.4 and September was a whopping +7.3. The ball game last night had temps which were at or below freezing for most of the second half. I am going to have to dig deep in order to find one where I felt that cold for most of a HS game in early November. Deep into the playoffs...they can be bitterly cold. Plus, I don't think many have acclimated to the colder pattern at this point. My family still heads out the door without coats on...only to have to hustle back inside in order to grab a jacket. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 6Z Might be more snow than we got all last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 32 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: That's all we ever in general get in OUR parts when there is a low into the Gulf,clouds. That is for certain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 The Euro/GFS are insistent that a lot of the forum area will get an inch or more of snow in the Monday Night/Tuesday timeframe. The Euro shows 1 inch from near Memphis, to Chattanooga and North. Euro and GFS are really keying on the Knox to Tri area for 1.5-3 inches. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 54 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Euro/GFS are insistent that a lot of the forum area will get an inch or more of snow in the Monday Night/Tuesday timeframe. The Euro shows 1 inch from near Memphis, to Chattanooga and North. Euro and GFS are really keying on the Knox to Tri area for 1.5-3 inches. It’s funny, the past 2, maybe 3 years, we’ve had some sort of snow in November in west Tn. Never more than an inch but still, that never used to happen from what I remember as a kid. Just seems odd that I’ve seen it in multiple years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: It’s funny, the past 2, maybe 3 years, we’ve had some sort of snow in November in west Tn. Never more than an inch but still, that never used to happen from what I remember as a kid. Just seems odd that I’ve seen it in multiple years now. We pull it off sometimes too, but it's not common by any means. Especially more than a dusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 That was a nice run for TYS ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 12Z NOV09 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 12Z 09-NOV 28.2 22.9 12003 2 SAT 18Z 09-NOV 50.0 28.0 50.2 29.0 24005 22 SUN 00Z 10-NOV 52.0 43.4 43.4 32.1 21005 0.00 0.00 2 SUN 06Z 10-NOV 43.5 39.7 39.7 32.4 21004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 10-NOV 39.8 38.3 38.9 34.3 21004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 10-NOV 60.0 38.9 60.2 38.7 23007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 11-NOV 61.6 51.5 51.3 40.6 21005 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 11-NOV 51.3 44.6 44.6 39.3 21003 0.00 0.00 99 MON 12Z 11-NOV 44.6 41.3 41.7 39.3 22003 0.00 0.00 54 MON 18Z 11-NOV 61.4 41.4 61.6 43.1 22007 0.00 0.00 58 TUE 00Z 12-NOV 62.6 54.1 54.0 43.0 21006 0.00 0.00 95 TUE 06Z 12-NOV 54.8 47.9 47.4 47.0 33007 0.14 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 12-NOV 47.4 30.8 30.6 27.6 36008 0.39 0.21 100 TUE 18Z 12-NOV 31.1 28.6 30.8 19.4 36009 0.06 0.06 94 WED 00Z 13-NOV 31.1 23.9 23.8 12.5 01006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 13-NOV 23.8 16.6 16.9 8.7 03004 0.00 0.00 2 WED 12Z 13-NOV 19.5 15.9 16.1 9.1 05003 0.00 0.00 0 WED 18Z 13-NOV 34.8 15.6 35.0 18.4 00001 0.00 0.00 35 THU 00Z 14-NOV 38.7 27.9 28.8 19.9 19004 0.00 0.00 71 THU 06Z 14-NOV 31.3 24.7 28.7 19.2 18005 0.00 0.00 26 THU 12Z 14-NOV 29.7 24.5 26.1 17.5 18004 0.00 0.00 1 THU 18Z 14-NOV 45.9 25.5 46.1 22.0 23007 0.00 0.00 0 FRI 00Z 15-NOV 47.7 39.2 39.1 26.0 23004 0.00 0.00 4 FRI 06Z 15-NOV 39.5 32.5 34.3 27.0 19001 0.00 0.00 1 FRI 12Z 15-NOV 35.3 26.2 26.8 23.6 06003 0.00 0.00 11 FRI 18Z 15-NOV 49.1 26.7 49.3 32.7 01002 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 00Z 16-NOV 50.7 37.5 38.3 33.3 04003 0.00 0.00 0 SAT 06Z 16-NOV 38.6 34.8 34.8 28.7 04004 0.00 0.00 88 SAT 12Z 16-NOV 34.9 32.2 32.2 27.4 06005 0.00 0.00 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Nice increase on 12z EPS for my area Mon/Tues 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 18z nam increased totals a good bit monday/Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 That a 4" snow mean over NE TN on the EPS for the early week event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: 18z nam increased totals a good bit monday/Tuesday. Definitely a nice jump for much of the state..think Holston called it in a earlier post, this strong of a front plus fgen and orographic lift is gonna squeeze everything it can out and models are struggling how to handle that the last few days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 GEFS looks better at 18z vs 6z today, although the 0z NAM (and somewhat 18z Euro) has backed down tonight. 18z Euro still had 1"-2" central valley northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Nothing changed really with the 18z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 52 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Nothing changed really with the 18z Euro Fairly same for plateau west, but lowered somewhat over east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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