Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Fozz said:

That winter was extremely frustrating for those of us in the mid-Atlantic, especially before Valentine's day which was when it actually turned pretty good afterwards.

I remember the mood in our forum and it might have been the origin of your panic threads. 2016-17 was easier to deal with than late Jan to early Feb 2015. But I haven't divorced winter... I have no reason to give up especially now that I'm so much further north.

The good period may have started late(mid Feb) but that winter slayed after that, well into March. Sometimes you just have to be patient. It's also never good for one's mental health to be too concerned with what is happening in NE when you live in the lowlands of the MA. Being in touch with reality is good.

[Fozz]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The good period may have started late(mid Feb) but that winter slayed after that, well into March. Sometimes you just have to be patient. It's also never good for one's mental health to be too concerned with what is happening in NE when you live in the lowlands of the MA. Being in touch with reality is good.

Yeah I learned that lesson afterwards. I was still only 24 back then and immature in many ways, but I'd like to think I have a more balanced perspective now, though to be fair I haven't been "tested" in the same way since then so you never know for sure.

Honestly though, if there's another Feb 2010 type storm that screws New England, I'll be happy for all of you... I'll never forget where I came from.

[tamarack]

20 hours ago, dryslot said:

Congrats Eastport became a common theme that winter.

Don't have Eastport stats, but here are those for 33 days (1/25-2/26) at Machias, contrasted with what fell at my place (lol):

Jan. 25          6.5       T
Jan. 27-28    25.7    20.0  (Would've been nice to have been there)
Jan. 31        13.9      9.1
Feb. 2-3      16.0      7.5
Feb. 5-6        5.1      0.5
Feb. 8-10      4.5      4.7
Feb. 12-13    0.8      0.7
Feb. 15       24.4      1.5
Feb. 20         5.9      5.5
Feb. 22         3.0      1.2
Feb. 23-24    1.3      1.8
Feb. 25-26    8.4      0.1

Total         115.5    53.5

[beavis1729]

11 hours ago, tamarack said:

Don't have Eastport stats, but here are those for 33 days (1/25-2/26) at Machias, contrasted with what fell at my place (lol):

Jan. 25          6.5       T
Jan. 27-28    25.7    20.0  (Would've been nice to have been there)
Jan. 31        13.9      9.1
Feb. 2-3      16.0      7.5
Feb. 5-6        5.1      0.5
Feb. 8-10      4.5      4.7
Feb. 12-13    0.8      0.7
Feb. 15       24.4      1.5
Feb. 20         5.9      5.5
Feb. 22         3.0      1.2
Feb. 23-24    1.3      1.8
Feb. 25-26    8.4      0.1

Total         115.5    53.5

Looking at the daily data for Machias, snow depth was 0” on January 24th, then increased to 74” by February 16th. Wow. 

Snow depth was still 62” on March 4th, and finally melted out on April 18th.

 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Looking at the daily data for Machias, snow depth was 0” on January 24th, then increased to 74” by February 16th. Wow. 

Snow depth was still 62” on March 4th, and finally melted out on April 18th.

 

Quite impressive seeing there in the Downeast portion of Maine and situated just inland from the Gulf Of Maine off the Atlantic.

[tamarack]

9 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Looking at the daily data for Machias, snow depth was 0” on January 24th, then increased to 74” by February 16th. Wow. 

Snow depth was still 62” on March 4th, and finally melted out on April 18th.

 

And the deepest it got at my CAD-rich, snowpack retaining yard was 31". 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What’s the latest?

[Torch Tiger]

JB going big for this winter. Stick a fork in it 

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What’s the latest?

You're the Greatest!  Lol...Sorry, I couldn't resist Berg.    

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You're the Greatest!  Lol...Sorry, I couldn't resist Berg.    

lol far from it but hope this warm/dry pattern eventually fades to wet troughs in 45 days. Kinda nervous the AK pig posts up later this month like Shaq....and can’t be moved. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Latest ENSO predictions by the CPC suggests at least a 55% chance for a neutral phase ENSO this winter into the Spring of 2020.  Not really a big swing in equatorial Pacific Ocean SSTs anomalies.  Snowfall could be above average in central New England, west of a PVD to BOS to AUG I-95 corridor points west.  East of that corridor slightly above to above average snow is possible.  That is my early thoughts.  A neutral phased ENSO will lead to the central regions being favored for above average snowfall.  If it was cold phase ENSO it would favor the western and Northern regions of the area, while the weak to moderate warm phase favors the coastal plain.  At least that is my general knowledge.  Someone like Will or Scott or Ray could let me know where I am wrong.

[weathafella]

On 9/30/2019 at 11:58 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

lol far from it but hope this warm/dry pattern eventually fades to wet troughs in 45 days. Kinda nervous the AK pig posts up later this month like Shaq....and can’t be moved. 

This does not look conducive to miss piggy....

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This does not look conducive to miss piggy....

 

 

No it doesn;t...the tropical PAC looks decent too. Cooler anomalies in the eastern ENSO region than the west.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

35 minutes ago, weathafella said:

This does not look conducive to miss piggy....

 

 

I dunno though the upper air pattern is looking troughy in the AK region as we roll through the month. Can the SST’s override it?

[MJOatleast7]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I dunno though the upper air pattern is looking troughy in the AK region as we roll through the month. Can the SST’s override it?

More Bering Sea than AK/NWT proper though...still tending toward higher heights in E AK/Yukon relative to Bering Sea. Let's keep it from getting any farther E though.

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I dunno though the upper air pattern is looking troughy in the AK region as we roll through the month. Can the SST’s override it?

I would not worry what the NPAC does. Those anomalies always go back and forth as ridging and troughing both occur. I look more towers the tropical Pacific. Like a Will said, that area looks good. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks pretty modoki to me at the moment...caveat being that these meager el nino events are more prone to alternate forcing sources.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/enso-update-pathway-remains-for-modest.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Latest ENSO predictions by the CPC suggests at least a 55% chance for a neutral phase ENSO this winter into the Spring of 2020.  Not really a big swing in equatorial Pacific Ocean SSTs anomalies.  Snowfall could be above average in central New England, west of a PVD to BOS to AUG I-95 corridor points west.  East of that corridor slightly above to above average snow is possible.  That is my early thoughts.  A neutral phased ENSO will lead to the central regions being favored for above average snowfall.  If it was cold phase ENSO it would favor the western and Northern regions of the area, while the weak to moderate warm phase favors the coastal plain.  At least that is my general knowledge.  Someone like Will or Scott or Ray could let me know where I am wrong.

I wouldn't rule out a weak el nino yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The way I see it, when region 4 is this warm, it goes onto to become a cold modoki season if it remains modest (it will, if it even makes el nino). The others were  mega el ninos and aren't applicable.

Only mild mild comp is 1994....but we are going to have to see region 1.2 warm pretty dramatically throughout October, or else that loses relevance fast. The subsurface does not look conducive for that to happen right now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Well, I’m all aboard the Polar Coaster:

[Typhoon Tip]

I guess old habits die hard 

[dryslot]

lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well, I’m all aboard the Polar Coaster:

I got last season and hurled my fried dough everywhere

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Ray, are you favoring a neutral ENSO right now?  Have your thoughts changed from earlier this summer?

[Typhoon Tip]

20 hours ago, weathafella said:

This does not look conducive to miss piggy....

 

 

I wonder how much of this sst distribution is more seasonal/ephemeral ( perhaps even typology ) in that regard, though.  The homogeneous layout of warm vs cool, above and below the equator respectively, leaps out at me. 

The southern hemisphere is modestly negative in a coherently pervasive characteristic layout there - that strikes me as interestingly coincident with the ending frames of the southern hemispheric winter.  Vice versa over the northern hemisphere. It doesn't appear there are many convincing "regions" that are identifiable and the ubiquitous nature of the positive anomalies may thus also be seasonal in nature.   If these sources are using a sliding mean ( which picks up on multi-decadal adjusted averages in GW paradigm) that could explain the southern hemisphere "normal" winter look below average.  

The question is, ..are these anomalies relative to some 50 or 100 years data mean?  Or, are they relative to season or intraseasonal time scale?  That's important in answering the above question.  

And it is an important question ...because using these to assess correlatives with specific features and characters may be entirely futile if 20 minutes of seasonal wind stressing essentially annihilates these complexions in lieu of a more permanent/longer term truth of what the distribution is/or will be... The thermocline depths and integrated upper 300 to 500 m of ocean plays an important role in these overall distinctions.  

The nearly homogeneous layout of modest negative anomaly spanning the southern hemisphere deeper latitudes is interesting, either way.  

[Hoth]

On September 17, 2019 at 10:32 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

2/14/15 was an all time event. Too bad it took walking through hell to get there. Yes, The Panic Room began that season. Some great stuff over the years .

 

I believe this was from 2/14/15. A great finale to an unforgettable month. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think the overall large mean of storm tracks will favor an easterly progression.  However, I have a hard time feeling confident in this prediction at this point in the early weeks of Fall.  Honestly the heaviest snows of the season could favor areas of Northern New England as much as it favors eastern New England.  Right now, the whole region is likely to experience normal to slightly above normal snowfall this winter, that is that snow falls between December 21st and March 21st will end up at normal or slightly to above average.  Neutral ENSO conditions likely present this large level of unknowns.

[Typhoon Tip]

In any case... the CPC modeling that is [ apparently ] NCEP's go-to has modest +.3 SSTs... and the integrated upper 300 m has been vacillating between modestly warm and modestly cool anomalies ...which doesn't lend to either warm(cool) ENSO state. 

Those vacillations may be explained by transient MJO - as these respective waves flip-flop the mass fields in their propagation from west to east ..they will slow if even temporarily stop, the easterly trades depending what cycle/phase the wave is in space and time...blah blah.. But the point is, these cause smaller non indicative, quasi - Kelvin wave responses, that no sooner the previous longer term dynamic resumes within intraseasonal time scale ( probably even mere weeks at that ) after the wave has passed. 

Imho, the modest surface temperature warmth ( < than .+5 ) may be related to the background warming signal to some degree.  It seems to me it's always like that.. or, overwhelmingly majority of times I ever check into NCEP's ongoing monitoring and publications, the SSTs seems to very rarely be negative for any extended length of time - however barely positive they are, notwithstanding.  This is going back many years at this point... 

Taking all this into consideration ( and I know I was asked for this opinion ..heh ), I feel as though the ENSO is, in a relative sense, dead nuts on 0 capacity to force a response in the R-wave tendencies going through autumn ...and based upon these advises from agencies charged with responsibility and access to more than mere charlitenism ... that may be the case throughout the winter, too.  

That pretty much leaves the North America winter distribution of temperature and storm frequency ( and probably ...storm track biases ) open to more polar index modes/modalities.

That said,  PNA --> PNAP constructs play a role and have a longer term trend/tendency to consider.  This is complicating... There is a tendency to "bulge" the Pacific due to latent heat budgeting ( very associated geo-physically) to the longer termed warm. Primitive climate modeling decades ago did suggest that east Pac ridging pushing periodically up into the Alaskan sector as a possible consequence of GW.  It's unclear if something like this is directly attributable to that... or, if this is just a multi-decadal PDO connection.  I almost wonder if the best aproach is variability ... The AB phase of the Pac is getting more favored using the multi-decade approach, but... the big blooming HC ridge is more AA ...which is diametrically suggestive there.  Course of least regret may be 'variability' in the PNA this year ... but I do believe over arcing -EPO will be in play a times... which all lends me to think:

My hunch is this is a stormy winter with big snow potentials for the midriff Plaines through the Great Lakes, with a 50/50 chances for that to tally farther east ( the lower OV/TV to upper MA and NE regions).  Fast flow will be a problem for modeling performance..  Slow moving bombs are less likely... The expansion of the Hadley Cell, which is a global assessment/part of the background warming signal will do as it has been doing for the last decade ... which is enhancing mid latitude gradients in the means. This gradient concomitantly speeds up the flow and thus, embedded events ... and even pattern modes themselves, tend to move right along.  If this preponderant HC expansion/w circumstance were less factoring .. I would lean toward more east distribution of the above layout/description .. but increased gradient means that neither side is "giving in" very readily.. In 2015 February, it seems the AO became so overwhelming that we end up inside the PV spacing far enough to escape the ablation of the 'too much fast flow'.   Excessive cold and storm systems combined were thus favored, but the lower water content in the snow during these events hearken to the extreme cold air dynamics, which are typically lower in precipitable water.    I'm bring this example to light to point out that in a patterns where the forcing/dominance is from the N, that does not necessarily mean event suppression in every case. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In any case... the CPC modeling that is [ apparently ] NCEP's go-to has modest +.3 SSTs... and the integrated upper 300 m has been vacillating between modestly warm and modestly cool anomalies ...which doesn't lend to either warm(cool) ENSO state. 

Those vacillations may be explained by transient MJO - as these respective waves flip-flop the mass fields in their propagation from west to east ..they will slow if even temporarily stop, the easterly trades depending what cycle/phase the wave is in space and time...blah blah.. But the point is, these cause smaller non indicative, quasi - Kelvin wave responses, that no sooner the previous longer term dynamic resumes within intraseasonal time scale ( probably even mere weeks at that ) after the wave has passed. 

Imho, the modest surface temperature warmth ( < than .+5 ) may be related to the background warming signal to some degree.  It seems to me it's always like that.. or, overwhelmingly majority of times I ever check into NCEP's ongoing monitoring and publications, the SSTs seems to very rarely be negative for any extended length of time - however barely positive they are, notwithstanding.  This is going back many years at this point... 

Taking all this into consideration ( and I know I was asked for this opinion ..heh ), I feel as though the ENSO is, in a relative sense, dead nuts on 0 capacity to force a response in the R-wave tendencies going through autumn ...and based upon these advises from agencies charged with responsibility and access to more than mere charlitenism ... that may be the case throughout the winter, too.  

That pretty much leaves the North America winter distribution of temperature and storm frequency ( and probably ...storm track biases ) open to more polar index modes/modalities.

That said,  PNA --> PNAP constructs play a role and have a longer term trend/tendency to consider.  This is complicating... There is a tendency to "bulge" the Pacific due to latent heat budgeting ( very associated geo-physically) to the longer termed warm. Primitive climate modeling decades ago did suggest that east Pac ridging pushing periodically up into the Alaskan sector as a possible consequence of GW.  It's unclear if something like this is directly attributable to that... or, if this is just a multi-decadal PDO connection.  I almost wonder if the best aproach is variability ... The AB phase of the Pac is getting more favored using the multi-decade approach, but... the big blooming HC ridge is more AA ...which is diametrically suggestive there.  Course of least regret may be 'variability' in the PNA this year ... but I do believe over arcing -EPO will be in play a times... which all lends me to think:

My hunch is this is a stormy winter with big snow potentials for the midriff Plaines through the Great Lakes, with a 50/50 chances for that to tally farther east ( the lower OV/TV to upper MA and NE regions).  Fast flow will be a problem for modeling performance..  Slow moving bombs are less likely... The expansion of the Hadley Cell, which is a global assessment/part of the background warming signal will do as it has been doing for the last decade ... which is enhancing mid latitude gradients in the means. This gradient concomitantly speeds up the flow and thus, embedded events ... and even pattern modes themselves, tend to move right along.  If this preponderant HC expansion/w circumstance were less factoring .. I would lean toward more east distribution of the above layout/description .. but increased gradient means that neither side is "giving in" very readily.. In 2015 February, it seems the AO became so overwhelming that we end up inside the PV spacing far enough to escape the ablation of the 'too much fast flow'.   Excessive cold and storm systems combined were thus favored, but the lower water content in the snow during these events hearken to the extreme cold air dynamics, which are typically lower in precipitable water.    I'm bring this example to light to point out that in a patterns where the forcing/dominance is from the N, that does not necessarily mean event suppression in every case. 

Great input as always John.  Looking forward for a better outlook on life, a more subdued enthusiasm for winter storms and more realistic approach to snowfall forecasts.  This subdued fast flow events will likely preclude major nor'easters and blizzards potential, but may add to the more moderate snow event threat level.  Perhaps no major NESIS like storms of 4 or 5 levels, but more so 2-3 level events.  I would favor a more easterly track, where suppression might become a threat overall.  This would depend greatly upon the smaller scale patterns like the PNA/NAO/AO combinations that present themselves on a week to week or every two week basis.  We will not know until every event presents themselves.  But the lack of overwhelming forces in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean regions where the ENSO is predicted, tells me that neutral phase is the way to go at this moment in time.  Therefore an average winter seems appropriate at this time and juncture.

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Great input as always John.  Looking forward for a better outlook on life, a more subdued enthusiasm for winter storms and more realistic approach to snowfall forecasts.  This subdued fast flow events will likely preclude major nor'easters and blizzards potential, but may add to the more moderate snow event threat level.  Perhaps no major NESIS like storms of 4 or 5 levels, but more so 2-3 level events.  I would favor a more easterly track, where suppression might become a threat overall.  This would depend greatly upon the smaller scale patterns like the PNA/NAO/AO combinations that present themselves on a week to week or every two week basis.  We will not know until every event presents themselves.  But the lack of overwhelming forces in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean regions where the ENSO is predicted, tells me that neutral phase is the way to go at this moment in time.  Therefore an average winter seems appropriate at this time and juncture.

Thank James... 

just adding to the bold' text:   ...I did not go into the following, because of much of it is hypothetical just yet, but the ENSO may be losing the battle to global warming's disruption of the previous statistical packages.  Example, a +1 SD El Nino may no longer be as effective in forcing as it were say ... 100 years ago, when the slightly cooler gestalt of whole atmosphere meant that a +1 SD warm ocean was a larger "differentiable" drive. 

Following from that logic, "an average winter" would be less forced to emerge/culpably assumed by a neutral Pacific. In fact, even a +1 or -1 SD warm(cool) ENSO may be less observably forcing.  So I guess being picky ...I don't like the term "therefore" in your context  

Something like this may have taken place recently, actually... The El Nino last year failed to register (*per NCEP) in the atmosphere until deep into February, when the hemisphere was already nearing spring ...  It seriously f-up seasonal forecasts, from multiple sources, both official and amateur.  Going further back, the super NINO of several years ago also did not appear to 'trigger' as many known consequences around the globe - quite plausibly because though it's SD was derived from the longer termed data set, that longer term data is not as meaningful to an atmosphere that has changed into a new paradigm.  Others have opined that the ENSO numbers are maintained/assessed based upon a sliding average .. That helps mitigate some of the 'changing system' uncertainty. However, that does not take into account acceleration in the system. The curve is not merely rising; it 'dove-tailing along that ascent, rising logarithmic, so sliding-means would fail that to some degree.

These [ apparent ] weak physically manifested warm ENSO's in recent history ( as in atmospheric response) do seem to suggest that outright reliance on the ENSO is more risky than ever, particularly when departures are tepid.

Experimental?  absolutely ... I'm interested in the winter [ probably ] for entirely different reasons than the average pass-timer in here...  I don't care so much about specific snow and/or storm and cold magnitudes ( beyond my native passion for witnessing weather drama, of course...) I'm more interested in testing both the speed of the flow as it relates to the observance of enhancing gradient, as well as whether the AO is in fact a more obvious contributor to forcing the hemisphere's hand this go around.