Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, it’s true.  Like 2015-16 up here was an atrocious (literally I didn’t believe it could happen) 153” at 3,000ft.  Then the very next winter that same plot gets 375” and all is ok with the world.  

I’m not sure how I’d be doing if we did like 3 straight winters of 75% of normal, or even less.  And even 75% of normal is a very shitty season as we don’t have the percentage deviations of the smaller annual total areas.

For all my protestations and hand-waving, I love my winter weather phenomenon types.  I can tell you, no one else who shares in that perspective did very well during those years Will mentioned..  

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

And Will/ORH is right.... maybe it’s entitlement but no matter the actual inches of snowfall it’s the jackpot syndrome that starts to take effect in any poster if one area gets the max load in several storms. 

Like 2014-15 wasn’t a bad winter by any standards outside of E.NE...it was normal to above and felt much different for anyone aside from say SE quad of New England.  I think HubbDave has said it felt like a meh 100” season because it was so close in so many events to so much more.  Same up here.  

Getting 125” in Stowe Village when Boston gets 80” means some great storms whiffed south.  You always think “what if” and are like that 125” could’ve been 160” with some NW ticks in track.

But we all spoiled.

Good reason why I hate 93-94. All I hear is how epic it was.....I was like 15" above average with no events over 12".

[CoastalWx]

Did I beat Stowe village in 14-15? 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good reason why I hate 93-94. All I hear is how epic it was.....I was like 15" above average with no events over 12".

I’m going to post from that shopping plaza in south Weymouth that you loathe. 

[powderfreak]

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Did I beat Stowe village in 14-15? 

115” or so here I think off the top of my head?  Depth of like 18-24” for like two months straight that would just subliminate in the arctic cold every time it snowed on top, lol.  

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

115” or so here I think off the top of my head?  Depth of like 18-24” for like two months straight that would just subliminate in the arctic cold every time it snowed on top, lol.  

So he probably beat Stowe. Lol. Scooter prob had over 120" that winter with depths over 40". 

We were joking during winter that Boston became Stowe that year. Because even outside of the huge storms there were a ton of trace snows and smaller measurable events that you often see up there. Between January 24th and February 28th that winter, BOS had 22 days with measurable snowfall. An additional 4 or 5 had traces. 

I think people forget amidst the absolute snowgasm is how we narrowly missed like 2 or 3 other major events. They ended up scraping us and/or late bloomers that got Eastport and Machias Maine...but we were still getting a couple inches on those near misses. Throw in a few clippers too. 

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So he probably beat Stowe. Lol. Scooter prob had over 120" that winter with depths over 40". 

We were joking during winter that Boston became Stowe that year. Because even outside of the huge storms there were a ton of trace snows and smaller measurable events that you often see up there. Between January 24th and February 28th that winter, BOS had 22 days with measurable snowfall. An additional 4 or 5 had traces. 

I think people forget amidst the absolute snowgasm is how we narrowly missed like 2 or 3 other major events. They ended up scraping us and/or late bloomers that got Eastport and Machias Maine...but we were still getting a couple inches on those near misses. Throw in a few clippers too. 

Yeah if he had 120+ he probably did beat my backyard, I don’t have the number but it’s in that 110-120” range.  Even JSpin had under 150” IIRC.  We were pretty much spot on normal snowfall that winter I think or even a couple inches below.... say normal here is ~120 and JSpin ~150.

Which goes back to your earlier point...getting normal snow when others get record snow certainly plays into our heads of the overall vibe of a given winter.  

And also it is crazy how close Scooter probably was to 150” if a couple of those late bloomers clipped him with a foot or something.  What an insane winter.  And it really took until Jan 20th to get started too.

[ORH_wxman]

34 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah if he had 120+ he probably did beat my backyard, I don’t have the number but it’s in that 110-120” range.  Even JSpin had under 150” IIRC.  We were pretty much spot on normal snowfall that winter I think or even a couple inches below.... say normal here is ~120 and JSpin ~150.

Which goes back to your earlier point...getting normal snow when others get record snow certainly plays into our heads of the overall vibe of a given winter.  

And also it is crazy how close Scooter probably was to 150” if a couple of those late bloomers clipped him with a foot or something.  What an insane winter.  And it really took until Jan 20th to get started too.

That's the kicker about that winter. Man, if December and the first 3 weeks of January had been just been run-of-the-mill crappy instead of absolutely putrid, we could probably tack on another 1-2 feet to the totals...and then don't forget March was kind of a dud ending too even though it was cold. The cape and southern MA/RI got a big event but BOS and even Scooter didn't. 

Obvioisly you can't complain when you go absolutely nuclear for a one month period but it's only natural to wonder what could have been if some of the other months were not as hostile. 

It goes back to what Tip often says about some mythical epic 6" QPF blizzard parked south of LI at 940mb having probably happened before in the past before records began....at some point in the past 500 or 1000 years (or 2000...whatever the number is) you know there was probably a winter where we had a 2015 stretch that coincided months that were pretty normal or even above normal for snowfall to produce the "Dream winter"...or as we know it, "The DamageInTolland winter"....buried by mid November followed by nonstop carnage with multiple blizzard through New Years...maybe a relaxation of just "normal" snowfall for a month or so before a another several Nor easters in Feb/Mar. 

[CoastalWx]

I had 126” and 100” in less than 30 days. Peak depth over 50”. I’ll never see that again.

[Fozz]

I sometimes feel the same way about 2009-10 in the mid-Atlantic. It was a total shutout after Feb 10, even though the blocking pattern continued for the rest of the month and was widely expected to last into March. But nothing really produced, and the late month “Snowicane” was a complete miss. Ji famously complained/trolled about the early ending, as well as the lame January.

Much of 2009-10 in the mid-Atlantic was one epic storm in December and an unbelievable 12 day period from the end of January into the first 10 days of February. But the rest of the season was uneventful, especially in the coastal plain.

I can only imagine what it would’ve been like if those slower periods had been more interesting....

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Fozz said:

I sometimes feel the same way about 2009-10 in the mid-Atlantic. It was a total shutout after Feb 10, and the blocking pattern continued for the rest of the month and was widely expected to last into March. But nothing really produced, and the late month “Snowicane” was a complete miss. Ji famously complained/trolled about the early ending, as well as the lame January.

Much of 2009-10 in the mid-Atlantic was one epic storm in December and an unbelievable 12 day period from the end of January into the first 10 days of February. But the rest of the season was uneventful, especially in the coastal plain.

Our winter was about 5 weeks in 2015 lol. March was cold, but many of us near and north of I-90 did not have a lot to be excited about.

[Fozz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Our winter was about 5 weeks in 2015 lol. March was cold, but many of us near and north of I-90 did not have a lot to be excited about.

Yeah, I think by then the atmosphere had exhausted itself. But what an incredible period it was.... getting 100” in a month is something you’d only expect on a mountain or in the LES snow belts.

[Baroclinic Zone]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I had 126” and 100” in less than 30 days. Peak depth over 50”. I’ll never see that again.

Never say never.  118” here.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Never say never.  118” here.

Between you and me geographically, I think some areas had over 130”. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Between you and me geographically, I think some areas had over 130”. 

Probably.  04/05 was another prolific year down my way.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

24 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Never say never.  118” here.

Could happen again. Who knows. Felt like it snowed everyday. 

I remember out of nowhere a random squall/shower just sat over us for a few hours and dumped 4-5” that nobody saw coming.

[Ginx snewx]

Lol we do have records 

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Could happen again. Who knows. Felt like it snowed everyday. 

I remember out of nowhere a random squall/shower just sat over us for a few hours and dumped 4-5” that nobody saw coming.

Yeah I wouldn't rule it out. Weather patterns seem to be getting more wild lately.

[CoastalWx]

7 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Could happen again. Who knows. Felt like it snowed everyday. 

I remember out of nowhere a random squall/shower just sat over us for a few hours and dumped 4-5” that nobody saw coming.

 Not in the way it happened. Not gonna happen. We aren’t getting 100” in a month without a meltdown.

[dmillz25]

12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol we do have records 

That’s just insane, IIRC i think here we finished at 55” for the season and that includes the March anafrontal event. Crazy to think that just 150 miles NE got over double that

[SouthCoastMA]

"113 in 05' and 96" in '15. For my area..that's crazy in a 10 year period. 

 

 

[OceanStWx]

13 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol we do have records 

Good, now I have some goals to slantstick my way towards.

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 Not in the way it happened. Not gonna happen. We aren’t getting 100” in a month without a meltdown.

See I almost think if it happens again, it could happen in similar fashion.  Almost like a standing wave pattern of big bombs that form in the same spot over and over. 

I feel like we do see those repeated patterns over 4-6 week cycles...say March 2001 was just a series of bombs that favored more interior and NNE, with COOPs in VT seeing up to 80" in that month in 3-4 storms. 

What 2015 did was one of these repeating patterns but on crystal meth.  Plenty of situations I can think of where the same area got smoked with a huge storm in short succession...ALB in 12/25/2002 and then 1/4/2003... BTV had it in December 2003 with 3 crush jobs in a row for 50".... and then say mid-Atlantic in 2009-2010 with just massive bombs in succession. 

What makes 2015 remarkable though is it took the "stable bomb pattern" and took it to the next level.  Plenty of examples I'm pulling up of 2-3 storms in a row over the same areas, but to get 4 to 5 systems over the same area in a month is something I can't think of.  2015 gives us a look at what happens if some of those patterns that produced 2-3 big storms in a row...kept going and dropped another 1-2 biggies on top of it.

 

[tamarack]

17 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

So he probably beat Stowe. Lol. Scooter prob had over 120" that winter with depths over 40". 

We were joking during winter that Boston became Stowe that year. Because even outside of the huge storms there were a ton of trace snows and smaller measurable events that you often see up there. Between January 24th and February 28th that winter, BOS had 22 days with measurable snowfall. An additional 4 or 5 had traces. 

I think people forget amidst the absolute snowgasm is how we narrowly missed like 2 or 3 other major events. They ended up scraping us and/or late bloomers that got Eastport and Machias Maine...but we were still getting a couple inches on those near misses. Throw in a few clippers too. 

Machias total was 174" and I think EPO had a foot more than that.  For folks too far N and W, it was the winter of might-have-beens, still AN snow for most but oh those near misses.  And it was the winter of 4 major storms forecasted that verified at 1/8 of the low end of the progged snowfall.  (One of those was in SNJ, where the 12-16" forecast verified at 1.5" that was gone 4 hours after final flakes, while I was missing the most powerful January storm to hit the home front in my lifetime.  As I've whined about before.  )

I feel like we do see those repeated patterns over 4-6 week cycles...say March 2001 was just a series of bombs that favored more interior and NNE, with COOPs in VT seeing up to 80" in that month in 3-4 storms. 

And we narrowly missed the most powerful storm off that series of lows on April 1-2, one that dumped meter=plus snows in Newfoundland with 150 kph winds.  As I was looking at 19" new and 48" pack early on 3/31/01, the PWM forecast was 12"+ with high winds for later on 4/1.  Fortunately for the plow truck drivers who were running out of space, the storm jogged to the east just enough.

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

See I almost think if it happens again, it could happen in similar fashion.  Almost like a standing wave pattern of big bombs that form in the same spot over and over. 

I feel like we do see those repeated patterns over 4-6 week cycles...say March 2001 was just a series of bombs that favored more interior and NNE, with COOPs in VT seeing up to 80" in that month in 3-4 storms. 

What 2015 did was one of these repeating patterns but on crystal meth.  Plenty of situations I can think of where the same area got smoked with a huge storm in short succession...ALB in 12/25/2002 and then 1/4/2003... BTV had it in December 2003 with 3 crush jobs in a row for 50".... and then say mid-Atlantic in 2009-2010 with just massive bombs in succession. 

What makes 2015 remarkable though is it took the "stable bomb pattern" and took it to the next level.  Plenty of examples I'm pulling up of 2-3 storms in a row over the same areas, but to get 4 to 5 systems over the same area in a month is something I can't think of.  2015 gives us a look at what happens if some of those patterns that produced 2-3 big storms in a row...kept going and dropped another 1-2 biggies on top of it.

 

It's possible we get a similar 1 month slaughter, but I feel like those amounts won't be touched. Maybe we get a 60-80" period there..but that was an unbelievable period of just slaughter after slaughter and no melting. 

[dryslot]

Congrats Eastport became a common theme that winter.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's possible we get a similar 1 month slaughter, but I feel like those amounts won't be touched. Maybe we get a 60-80" period there..but that was an unbelievable period of just slaughter after slaughter and no melting. 

Yeah agreed those totals are pretty safe.  So many things came together, including temps and ratios to produce those totals.  That same pattern in a warmer environment (say March) with dense 8-10:1 ratio snow might have left that as a 60-70” period... vs 100”+.  Just an incredible combo of factors.  

[OceanStWx]

 POD      FAR

0.911

0.371

 

Stats for GYX that winter. Lotta false alarms *cough*St. Valentine's Day massacre*cough*

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

 POD      FAR

0.911

0.371

 

Stats for GYX that winter. Lotta false alarms *cough*St. Valentine's Day massacre*cough*

As soon as Dryslot said "we take" when the euro buried Maine in that one, we took. 

[Fozz]

59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

And I missed it all. Not only did I miss it, three consecutive times we were in the game in DC until inside like 72 or 48 only to have it slip for us and rock for you. Melted down, divorced winter, and never looked back.

I still hurt sometimes though, like when I’m reading the last few pages here. 

That winter was extremely frustrating for those of us in the mid-Atlantic, especially before Valentine's day which was when it actually turned pretty good afterwards.

I remember the mood in our forum and it might have been the origin of your panic threads. 2016-17 was easier to deal with than late Jan to early Feb 2015. But I haven't divorced winter... I have no reason to give up especially now that I'm so much further north.