Rtd208 Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 I take most if not all winter outlooks with a grain of salt no matter what the reputation of the person issuing them is. Its a roll of the dice IMO. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: I take most if not all winter outlooks with a grain of salt no matter what the reputation of the person issuing them is. Its a roll of the dice IMO. Lots of near and far misses in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowEMass said: Lots of near and far misses in recent years. As opposed to the more accurate seasonal forecasts prior to that Not trying to be a dink but, ... I don't think there's ever really been a boon era for seasonal forecasts. Some year, some individual seems to do have done particularly well.. And there's this propensity for adulation and 'rock-starring' - which is eye-rolling in most cases. But, that same individual's dice don't roll the seven on the fire bet that next year, and tho they may have won some residual clout for having had the one stellar performance, it's usually someone else's turn to roll an eleven and score. There are some techniques that can be considered, that may improve one's vision over climatology ( or the opposite if they're bad at this shit...), but frankly, there are key systemic, global changes that are becoming increasingly coherent spanning the last couple of decades, and until I start reading in plain text that the author is including those facets ( much less ...are even aware) than it's all really just crap- shoot entertainment in my estimation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 The difference this season is that hopes aren’t inflated like last year. If this winter is sub normal, at least there was some indication that it could happen so not as much of a let down. Time will tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Hazey said: The difference this season is that hopes aren’t inflated like last year. If this winter is sub normal, at least there was some indication that it could happen so not as much of a let down. Time will tell. I joked ... and of course got zero likes ( muah haha ), forecasting the dreaded apocalyptic "nosnowmegettin' " winter - does anyone have the plumbs to forecast that? I mean, take out the 2012 Halloween storm that was a pretty frickin' close to an an apocalyptically bad winter, and should show that if we can get that close - it's kind of like deep field astronomy and this S.E.T.I stuff. The old argument, if it can happen once in a cosmos that for all intents and purposes is so vast that to attempt to conceive of it in any finite terms pretty much escapes all effective meaning and therefore ...doesn't exist, that means that it probably happened more than once. I submit that in a GW/cc world, one that's already put up a year like that one, it's just a matter of time. That person that makes that call and is is proven right? I got a hunch they go down in history as the the most buried unsung genius ever - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 2 hours ago, Hazey said: The difference this season is that hopes aren’t inflated like last year. If this winter is sub normal, at least there was some indication that it could happen so not as much of a let down. Time will tell. True. The optimism was so intense that it hurt lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 My two bad missess were due to getting the polar domain wrong during el nino events. NAO and AO are tough to predict...breaking news, I know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 5 hours ago, Hazey said: The difference this season is that hopes aren’t inflated like last year. If this winter is sub normal, at least there was some indication that it could happen so not as much of a let down. Time will tell. Who's hopes were inflated last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 7, 2019 Author Share Posted November 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said: Who's hopes were inflated last year? Many were...mine included. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 Fairly similar to what Larry Cosgrove has, although Cosgrove is better at seasonal forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Many were...mine included. Hopes were relatively high by some, or most. Not so much unnecessarily high, maybe a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 34 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Hopes were relatively high by some, or most. Not so much unnecessarily high, maybe a little Mine were unnecessarily lol. Can't spin that- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 After some early pre season jitters, SWC is all in for a great winter. No rats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 On 11/9/2019 at 8:49 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: After some early pre season jitters, SWC is all in for a great winter. No rats. Great vs no rats doesn’t leave room for the middle which I think happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/10/north-american-winter-outlook-2019-20/ So here is my final write-up for the North American winter. Analysis throughout of course, and results/conclusions towards the bottom. Forecast map below. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Goodday mate! Thanks for your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Football weather in Green Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 22 hours ago, weathafella said: Great vs no rats doesn’t leave room for the middle which I think happens. Last winter was normal snowfall here but it sucked, so it was a ratter imo. So I can consider a season ‘great’ but still relatively close to normal snow wise. I don’t always necessarily equate the two as being contingent upon each other. I want BN temps, constant tracking from Dec-Feb, snow falling or otg around the holidays, etc. If we have mostly nickel and dime events making it feel like winter for the majority of the season, I can consider that to ‘great...even if the total snow measurement doesn’t add up to indicate that it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted November 11, 2019 Share Posted November 11, 2019 47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Last winter was normal snowfall here but it sucked, so it was a ratter imo. So I can consider a season ‘great’ but still relatively close to normal snow wise. I don’t always necessarily equate the two as being contingent upon each other. I want BN temps, constant tracking from Dec-Feb, snow falling or otg around the holidays, etc. If we have mostly nickel and dime events making it feel like winter for the majority of the season, I can consider that to ‘great...even if the total snow measurement doesn’t add up to indicate that it was. If you get most of your snow in March and it melts the next day and most of the other storms are last minute whiffs and other fake-outs, that's a crappy winter regardless of the totals, IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 On 11/10/2019 at 2:35 PM, Snowy Hibbo said: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/10/north-american-winter-outlook-2019-20/ So here is my final write-up for the North American winter. Analysis throughout of course, and results/conclusions towards the bottom. Forecast map below. Any sense on temperature or precipitation anomalies by month? I.e. what you expect to be the most extreme periods? My stuff implied some pretty powerful cold for a while, but also some early/late winter warm ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 3 hours ago, raindancewx said: Any sense on temperature or precipitation anomalies by month? I.e. what you expect to be the most extreme periods? My stuff implied some pretty powerful cold for a while, but also some early/late winter warm ups. I’d say for New England roughly: Average-mildly below average for Dec. Similar, maybe a bit colder for Jan. Below average temps in Feb. I’m going with a reasonably good wider Christmas/NY period (mid-late Dec, maybe into Jan) and improving snow conditions after a potential SSW in mid Jan-Feb at this point. This of course changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 16 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Last winter was normal snowfall here but it sucked, so it was a ratter imo. So I can consider a season ‘great’ but still relatively close to normal snow wise. I don’t always necessarily equate the two as being contingent upon each other. I want BN temps, constant tracking from Dec-Feb, snow falling or otg around the holidays, etc. If we have mostly nickel and dime events making it feel like winter for the majority of the season, I can consider that to ‘great...even if the total snow measurement doesn’t add up to indicate that it was. What are the specifics ratting last season? Honestly I can’t remember other than we were expecting significantly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Griteater's winter outlook. To say the least...it doesn't suck: https://t.co/9f2d4oEaG3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 18 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Last winter was normal snowfall here but it sucked, so it was a ratter imo. So I can consider a season ‘great’ but still relatively close to normal snow wise. I don’t always necessarily equate the two as being contingent upon each other. I want BN temps, constant tracking from Dec-Feb, snow falling or otg around the holidays, etc. If we have mostly nickel and dime events making it feel like winter for the majority of the season, I can consider that to ‘great...even if the total snow measurement doesn’t add up to indicate that it was. That’s 1993-94. Lots of 6-10 events and cold. But to me, 3 storms of 2 feet plus and nothing else is better than that spread over a 3 month period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 2 hours ago, weathafella said: What are the specifics ratting last season? Honestly I can’t remember other than we were expecting significantly better. We did basically go the entire month of December and the first half of January snowless. That's pretty bad. We did make up some ground after that but it wasn't enough. If you were closer to where iceberg was, they didn't get the brunt of the 3/4 storm either so they didn't have that signature 12-16" event to hang their hat on like those near BOS did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Biggest snows in Nov and Mar with many rainers DJF, that is a rat imo. I couldn’t care less that we fell around normal snow climo when I saw rain drops with practically every system during the heart of the season. The cold always came after the systems passed. Definition of an 80s winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Biggest snows in Nov and Mar with many rainers DJF, that is a rat imo. I couldn’t care less that we fell around normal snow climo when I saw rain drops with practically every system during the heart of the season. The cold always came after the systems passed. Definition of an 80s winter. Pack retention was pretty crappy...definitely '80s-esque....ORH had about 55 days of pack last winter and 10 of them came in November with 0 in December and only 9 in January. Average for the season is about 74-75 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 So, today's the day we get Ray's seasonal outlook drop, right? Can't. Freakin'. Wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 The pattern this year suggests a better December hopefully 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: The pattern this year suggests a better December hopefully Can't be much worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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