Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

[powderfreak]

19 hours ago, Hoth said:

F yes. Felt like three months of rain with a single decent event in March. Made worse by the heightened expectations going into the season and all the Modoki malarky. 

What we your seasonal snowfall total, Hoth? 

How did it compare to 2001-02, 2006-07, 2011-12, 2015-16?  Purely curious, no motives or any judgment on what's a ratter there, ha.

[weathafella]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Speaking of, what is the definition of a ratter? Is it bottom ten for snowfall? Below climo? I’d argue that last year was absolute garbage imby, even with two decent snow events. 

>30% below normal 

[powderfreak]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Speaking of, what is the definition of a ratter? Is it bottom ten for snowfall? Below climo? I’d argue that last year was absolute garbage imby, even with two decent snow events. 

Yeah it's an interesting discussion.  Many look at it as the final snowfall total when the season ends.  Because of that, I think it's always hard to forecast a "ratter" when even 1 big snowstorm can remove a lot of locations in SNE from ratter territory if it's purely by snowfall totals.   You could have the worst winter pattern imaginable for months on end, but pop one KU storm on the way out of winter in March/April and it's no ratter.

Say you average 47" of snow a season.  You get an awesome 12" storm in late November.  Then for the next 4 months (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar) you add only 6-8" (no more than 2" in any one system) in what is one of the most brutal 4 month winter stretches for a snow lover.  April 1st you get a 1997 storm with 30" and it's a top 3 lifetime storm... but it all melts in a week or less because it's April. 

That winter ends up with a seasonal snowfall of 12+8+30 for 50" total... above normal snow on the season!  But for 4 full months, through the heart of winter darkness, you never saw more than 2" at a time and only 8" total in one of the worst stretches imaginable. 

That winter feels like a 50" ratter, ha.

[Hoth]

46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What we your seasonal snowfall total, Hoth? 

How did it compare to 2001-02, 2006-07, 2011-12, 2015-16?  Purely curious, no motives or any judgment on what's a ratter there, ha.

Fair question. 4 Seasons can probably give a better measurement for our area, but it was close to average, maybe a few inches shy. Somewhere around 30" at any rate. It was just the way it was delivered that was a good hard kick in the pistachios. Great event in early November, followed by more inches of rain than snow until March.  I don't recall 01-02 much: I was 18 then and more focused on bedding girls than snow; think it snowed in early May that year though. '06-'07 definitely sucked. I didn't really start paying attention to seasonal totals until 2008-9. 2011-12 definitely is without a doubt the worst ratter of my life. I was in Boston, so we didn't even get anything from the Octobomb. The March torch was epic at least. 2015-2016 was bad, too, though not as bad as your area relative to climo, but I was still riding such a high from 2015 that nothing could bring me down. 

[powderfreak]

I guess what I just laid out leads to another question.... for those of you who average in that 40-50" range, if you knew you could have a 24-36" event at the end of winter, but you also had to accept 3 months of mid-winter darkness only giving you sloppy 1-3" then rain SWFE's that add up to maybe 12" total in 90 days... do you take that trade off?  Or do you roll the dice and rather see a parade of 4-8" all snow events through January and February giving you the same seasonal total?

[Hoth]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it's an interesting discussion.  Many look at it as the final snowfall total when the season ends.  Because of that, I think it's always hard to forecast a "ratter" when even 1 big snowstorm can remove a lot of locations in SNE from ratter territory if it's purely by snowfall totals.   You could have the worst winter pattern imaginable for months on end, but pop one KU storm on the way out of winter in March/April and it's no ratter.

 

Yeah, I mean many of us were chucking '14-'15 into the ratter category on Jan 20, 2015. The season suuucked till then. Now, it's perhaps my rosiest winter memory, along with '96 and Jan '11. A HECS in any season, with the exception of '11-'12, will pull it out of ratter territory, but anything less may not. 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, I mean many of us were chucking '14-'15 into the ratter category on Jan 20, 2015. The season suuucked till then. Now, it's perhaps my rosiest winter memory, along with '96 and Jan '11. A HECS in any season, with the exception of '11-'12, will pull it out of ratter territory, but anything less may not. 

Even a HECS in '11-12 would pull it out of ratter territory in Boston... if going by pure snowfall totals and percentages of normal, I feel like any winter with a HECS cannot be a ratter in places that average say 45" or less.  A HECS of 24-36" or even a MECS of say 15-24" can put a big dent in those season total percentages of normal.

[J.Spin]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I guess what I just laid out leads to another question.... for those of you who average in that 40-50" range, if you knew you could have a 24-36" event at the end of winter, but you also had to accept 3 months of mid-winter darkness only giving you sloppy 1-3" then rain SWFE's that add up to maybe 12" total in 90 days... do you take that trade off?  Or do you roll the dice and rather see a parade of 4-8" all snow events through January and February giving you the same seasonal total?

Interesting question for some places, but if you were to transform that question into the equivalent for up here in ski county, I bet you’d get very few to vote for that first option.  Full blown feast or famine is really not a good way to run a ski season.

[Hoth]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Even a HECS in '11-12 would pull it out of ratter territory in Boston... if going by pure snowfall totals and percentages of normal, I feel like any winter with a HECS cannot be a ratter in places that average say 45" or less.  A HECS of 24-36" or even a MECS of say 15-24" can put a big dent in those season total percentages of normal.

If that HECS comes in October and the rest of winter does bupkis, I disagree haha. Would I trade a guaranteed annual HECS of 24-36" in March to have Stowe-like 4-6" events every week from early December to April? I'd be sorely tempted. I love the tracking and drama of huge storms, but man there is something ineffably wonderful about just piling it on in steady, reassuring doses. Money in the bank. Manna for the soul. But the key word is "guaranteed." Obviously dealing with hypotheticals is far different than real world uncertainty. If you offered me a guaranteed 6" per week or a chance at a 40" blockbuster in March, I'd take the former every time. 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

>30% below normal 

For BOS maybe? But even 30% looks like a steep standard. 30% of BOS normal is like 13.5"...we're getting into top 5 worst snowfalls of all time there. 

For ORH it would be even higher because 30% of ORH normal is like 21 inches which is the all time worst season on record (1954-1955 had 21.2")....for ORH I'd go anything under 65% of normal which is about 45"....for reference, 2001-2002 had 44.4" while 2011-2012 had 39.7" at the airport. Getting under 45" there isn't that easy. Even 2015-2016 couldn't do it. Though 1999-2000 did (sneaky awful ratter that was at 30.2" including a trace in December). 

Best way to do it is probably standard deviation. One standard deviation in the bad direction will leave you in the 17th percentile which I think is pretty reasonable. For ORH a standard deviation for a season is about 24". So 69 minus 24 leaves me around that magical 45" total that I came up with earlier. 

For BOS, one standard deviation is about 21.5", so 44 minus 21.5 would be 22.5"....that sounds about right too for a true BOS ratter. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

For BOS maybe? But even 30% looks like a steep standard. 30% of BOS normal is like 13.5"...we're getting into top 5 worst snowfalls of all time there. 

For ORH it would be even higher because 30% of ORH normal is like 21 inches which is the all time worst season on record (1954-1955 had 21.2")....for ORH I'd go anything under 65% of normal which is about 45"....for reference, 2001-2002 had 44.4" while 2011-2012 had 39.7" at the airport. Getting under 45" there isn't that easy. Even 2015-2016 couldn't do it. Though 1999-2000 did (sneaky awful ratter that was at 30.2" including a trace in December). 

Best way to do it is probably standard deviation. One standard deviation in the bad direction will leave you in the 17th percentile which I think is pretty reasonable. For ORH a standard deviation for a season is about 24". So 69 minus 24 leaves me around that magical 45" total that I came up with earlier. 

For BOS, one standard deviation is about 21.5", so 44 minus 21.5 would be 22.5"....that sounds about right too for a true BOS ratter. 

I based the 30% as that number to bring the seasonal total under 30 inches.  But one standard deviation below actually makes more sense statistically.

[Hoth]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

What’s the standard deviation for a place like...say HFD?

Dunno, but for my hood it's probably zero point zero...or maybe that's 2 deviations lol.

[powderfreak]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I had that dilemma in DC in 2016. We had an historic storm, but virtually nothing the rest of the season. My personal preference after that season is to have a number of good events spread out rather than the one big bomb and nothing else. 

14-15 was the rare instance for me where a horrific season can be salvaged late. February and March was just as wonderful as December and January were putrid. I don’t think one storm can do it.

That's where I would fall.  Maybe there's a difference between a "statistical ratter" vs. a "psychological ratter."

Statistically a big storm or a couple quick storms can make a huge difference in the overall numbers.  But as weather geeks, having nothing to track for months at a time is brutal.  I mean we look forward to winter all year long because we love the anticipation of big model runs, the analysis and discussion as snow events are approaching... I think as a whole we get more satisfaction in this hobby from the quantity of trackable events.  A dozen different snow events (even if a parade of 3-6") is fun to be a part of throughout the winter on the forum.... rather than 3 months of nothing followed by 1 huge storm. 

I really look at it as the number of events is what makes winter really fun, because for us it's being able to look at the models and discuss the snow... rather than just end of the year total.

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For BOS maybe? But even 30% looks like a steep standard. 30% of BOS normal is like 13.5"...we're getting into top 5 worst snowfalls of all time there.

I thought he was saying less than 30% below normal.  Not 30% of normal?

[Torch Tiger]

A ratter is a winter that Dec. -Feb. is generally bad. A random March April event or two that melts in 6 hours should be factored in.

[Hoth]

Just now, Dr. Dews said:

A ratter is a winter that Dec. -Feb. is generally bad. A random March April event or two that melts in 6 hours should be factored in.

The melting factor is a great point. Sun angle is a killer later in the season. Reminds me of that March HECS eastern Mass had two years ago where I got royally boned in subsidence. Nothing is more depressing than hearing Ray ecstatically tack on 3"/hr while I watch my 3" run off into the storm drain.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Hoth said:

The melting factor is a great point. Sun angle is a killer later in the season. Reminds me of that March HECS eastern Mass had two years ago where I got royally boned in subsidence. Nothing is more depressing than hearing Ray ecstatically tack on 3"/hr while I watch my 3" run off into the storm drain.

Morch snows are nothing more than stat padders .. It’s snow, but the melt as soon as it falls is so maddening. That’s why winter is Nov- Mid Feb during low sun angle 

[Hoth]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Morch snows are nothing more than stat padders .. It’s snow, but the melt as soon as it falls is so maddening. That’s why winter is Nov- Mid Feb during low sun angle 

It really does interfere with my enjoyment of the event. Just knowing that it's going to disappear in a couple days sucks.

[mreaves]

18 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Interesting question for some places, but if you were to transform that question into the equivalent for up here in ski county, I bet you’d get very few to vote for that first option.  Full blown feast or famine is really not a good way to run a ski season.

Last year was just about perfection for me. Cold but not -30 type stuff, constant snow cover and plenty of events to keep it fresh. Now, if I could just flip a switch to skip mud season, All would be right with the world. 

[Damage In Tolland]

42 minutes ago, Hoth said:

It really does interfere with my enjoyment of the event. Just knowing that it's going to disappear in a couple days sucks.

I absolutely hate it. Seeing all that snow.. knowing it’s gone within a day or 3. No pack . Have it fall during low sun angle season when even a 42 degree high won’t dent it.

[ORH_wxman]

49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I thought he was saying less than 30% below normal.  Not 30% of normal?

Yes he was. He clarified that a few posts up. So he basically thinks around the 30 inch mark defines a ratter at BOS. Which is fair. That's not a very good season in BOS.  One standard dev would be more like 22.5" but we all have different thresholds as to what "ratter" actually means to us. I tend view the term as something more than just a run-of-the-mill cruddy season.

Jerry did invent the useage of the term describing seasonal snowfall so he gets more say. 

[ORH_wxman]

49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Morch snows are nothing more than stat padders .. It’s snow, but the melt as soon as it falls is so maddening. That’s why winter is Nov- Mid Feb during low sun angle 

I had snow pack pretty much the entire month of march 2018...and 2017...and 2015...and 2013...

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What’s the standard deviation for a place like...say HFD?

BDL looks like about 19"...so one standard deviation below average is somewhere in the 29-30" range for the season (since average is about 48-49")

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, 512high said:

Ray, when do you give your final thoughts for the upcoming season , in a few weeks? And zero from Isotherm? If I am correct is he most active on New York forum? 

11-12 for me.

Isotherm next week.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

11-12 for me.

Isotherm next week.

Lol for a second I thought you were calling for a repeat of '11-'12 and nearly had a heart attack.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Lol for a second I thought you were calling for a repeat of '11-'12 and nearly had a heart attack.

I always release on Nov 12.

[Ginx snewx]

After last years misses the long rangers will definitely tamper their expectations,  only natural to be conservative. Expect it

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

After last years misses the long rangers will definitely tamper their expectations,  only natural to be conservative. Expect it

Did you do your medium chunk at a time calls last year?  I seem to remember you had a good run with that a couple of years ago. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Did you do your medium chunk at a time calls last year?  I seem to remember you had a good run with that a couple of years ago. 

Epic fail last year.  Totally read the hemispheric pattern wrong although I did hit the Arctic outbreak.  Will do one Tday week. Just for fun

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Morch snows are nothing more than stat padders .. It’s snow, but the melt as soon as it falls is so maddening. That’s why winter is Nov- Mid Feb during low sun angle 

But statistically it snows as much as it does in December.   But for March/April  snows to save a season it has to be 1955-56, 1957-58 1959-60,  1996-97 although 1957-58 had a great February.  1977-78 was backloaded as many of f the great ones are.   My preference is front loaded but I don’t have the keys to control that so I take what I get.  A sub par 1959-60 turned in a dime with one of the 20th century’s great blizzards.  In NNJ where tamarack and I grew up, snow stayed on the ground all month-it was cold.