Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

Should be a weak el nino this season....best ENSO analog is 2014-2015.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/confidence-grows-in-late-marginal-el.html

Winter outlook 11-12-19.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Should be a weak el nino this season....best ENSO analog is 2014-2015.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/confidence-grows-in-late-marginal-el.html

Winter outlook 11-12-19.

I was thinking backloaded winter too, with the "back load" being delayed compared to 2015, more like early February.

[Go Kart Mozart]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Should be a weak el nino this season....best ENSO analog is 2014-2015.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/confidence-grows-in-late-marginal-el.html

Winter outlook 11-12-19.

Was that year any good?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Was that year any good?

14-15? Well around here that likely cannot be topped. It was much tougher west of ORH down to BDL and points west, but that was probably mere luck. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

When in doubt.... go average.

Id say we are good for a solid 40” around here, one way or another.

My guess is we see a backloaded winter like we’ve seen quite a bit 

[dryslot]

Lock it in.

[CoastalWx]

Avg is like the sum of extremes around here though. SD on either side is fairly high near the coast. But yeah, I get what you mean.

[dryslot]

Up here, 49" in a 7 day stretch that winter of 2014-15.

[frd]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Should be a weak el nino this season....best ENSO analog is 2014-2015.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/confidence-grows-in-late-marginal-el.html

Winter outlook 11-12-19.

Ray, do you see any drivers over whelming the ENSO? 

Some private mets that run natural gas and ag consulting are really hammering the QBO and the low solar background state. 

Also, several mets are even mentioning we experience a combo in a new analog era of a hybrid ENSO - a combo of both Nina and Nino characteristics.   

What are your thoughts on them, if you can comment partially, prior to your seasonal release .  Thanks 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Ray, do you see any drivers over whelming the ENSO? 

Some private mets that run natural gas and ag consulting are really hammering the QBO and the low solar background state. 

Also, several mets are even mentioning we experience a combo in a new analog era of a hybrid ENSO - a combo of both Nina and Nino characteristics.   

What are your thoughts on them, if you can comment partially, prior to your seasonal release .  Thanks 

 

I haven't spoken much about the NAO during the lead in, but I do not anticipate a repeat of last year's hostile Atlantic. As far as ENSO, while we will be prone to interludes of alternative forcing mechanisms given both the meager intensity and delayed onset of the ensuing warm ENSO event, I do not anticipate sustained la nina like forcing to be a prevalent feature like last year. Latest bimonthly MEI is already +.30 and will only ascend from this point until the onset of boreal winter.

[frd]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't spoken much about the NAO during the lead in, but I do not anticipate a repeat of last year's hostile Atlantic. As far as ENSO, while we will be prone to interludes of alternative forcing mechanisms given both the meager intensity and delayed onset of the ensuing warm ENSO event, I do not anticipate sustained la nina like forcing to be a prevalent feature like last year. Latest bimonthly MEI is already +.30 and will only ascend from this point until the onset of boreal winter.

Thanks, very interesting. I concur regarding the NAO. 

Do you see us eventually exiting the persistent - PNA pattern to one more Nino like in time?  

The contrast of players currently is enough to make your head spin.  Very high IOD ( but think it is past the peak ) , high PMM ,  crazy TNI number,  very fast PAC jet and a lack of West Coast ridging. Maybe things re-shuffle to a colder pattern in the East as we get to December. 

Surprisingly a couple private met commodity forecasters are calling for a cold December in the East with snow potential.  That is contrary to many whom have stated the winter gets off to a slow start.  

On a side note, simply using longer wavelengths in December with the current  PMM provides a very cold month in the East.   

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Thanks, very interesting. I concur regarding the NAO. 

Do you see us eventually exiting the persistent - PNA pattern to one more Nino like in time?  

The contrast of players currently is enough to make your head spin.  Very high IOD ( but think it is past the peak ) , high PMM ,  crazy TNI number,  very fast PAC jet and a lack of West Coast ridging. Maybe things re-shuffle to a colder pattern in the East as we get to December. 

Surprisingly a couple private met commodity forecasters are calling for a cold December in the East with snow potential.  That is contrary to many whom have stated the winter gets off to a slow start.      

 

I do not anticipate a repeat of December 2014....December 2019 will not be hostile. I foresee an improving Pacific later this season, but as a seasonal mean, I don't feel as though it will be extremely favorable...save for maybe the arctic domain (-EPO).

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

14-15? Well around here that likely cannot be topped. It was much tougher west of ORH down to BDL and points west, but that was probably mere luck. 

I'm not trying to drive hype...not forecasting 100"+ in Boston..main take away from that is that odds of a ratter are relatively low.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not trying to drive hype...not forecasting 100"+ in Boston..main take away from that is that odds of a ratter are relatively low.

Yep, important to clarify. I’m not even sure the most pristine weenie pattern ever could deliver the same results. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep, important to clarify. I’m not even sure the most pristine weenie pattern ever could deliver the same results. 

And btw, I do not think that this season offers the most pristine of patterns.

[OSUmetstud]

Dynamical guidance is in solid agreement on ENSO neutral conditions. Are you assuming its wrong? Or do you think the very warm nino 4 will keep it acting like a weak El Nino?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Dynamical guidance is in solid agreement on ENSO neutral conditions. Are you assuming its wrong? Or do you think the very warm nino 4 will keep it acting like a weak El Nino?

I see the guidance...I think it will be close with a very late peak ONI. The fact that it will be marginal and late do have ramifications on the forecast...whether or not it technically registers as official el nino is probably trivial. This is baked into the outlook.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Note regarding 2014-2015...it actually started more basin wide, and trended into a modiki. There were some pretty toasty eastern regions late summer/early fall...but by peak ONI that had changed. This one is evolving differently...opposite evolution.

[CoastalWx]

We'll have to watch how things like MJO, typhoon re-curves etc affect the pattern. Sometimes the atmosphere under weak SST environments may not behave as one thinks. 

[OSUmetstud]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see the guidance...I think it will be close with a very late peak ONI. The fact that it will be marginal and late do have ramifications on the forecast...whether or not it technically registers as official el nino is probably trivial. This is baked into the outlook.

Alright, I grabbed a couple very weak El Ninos in my analog set. too, but most of mine are ENSO neutral just given the available guidance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Alright, I grabbed a couple very weak El Ninos in my analog set. too, but most of mine are ENSO neutral just given the available guidance. 

Yea, used ENSO warm-neutral and weak el nino.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Alright, I grabbed a couple very weak El Ninos in my analog set. too, but most of mine are ENSO neutral just given the available guidance. 

What years did you end up using? I looked back and can't find them, Maybe i didn't go far enough back in here.

[OSUmetstud]

Just now, dryslot said:

What years did you end up using? I looked back and can't find them, Maybe i didn't go far enough back in here.

I didn't post them, just give me a minute. 

[OSUmetstud]

These were chosen based on best matches re: summer into fall for ENSO, TNI, PDO, AMO, QBO, NAO and solar. I haven't checked on the snowfall result in those years for the northeast. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pretty nice look...

[Torch Tiger]

[dryslot]

46 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

These were chosen based on best matches re: summer into fall for ENSO, TNI, PDO, AMO, QBO, NAO and solar. I haven't checked on the snowfall result in those years for the northeast. 

 

 

Just based off of what you provided for here anyways as far as snowfall goes, Two of those seasons were sub par but the rest were above or well above normal, No problem rolling the dice for here this winter with that look.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just based off of what you provided for here anyways as far as snowfall goes, Two of those seasons were sub par but the rest were above or well above normal, No problem rolling the dice for here this winter with that look.

Looks like a healthy dose of NAO/EPO, but meager PNA...don't disagree.

[forkyfork]

On 10/18/2019 at 12:56 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I don't know for sure on this so I don't state it as fact....but it seems the seasonal climate models have some sort of backround warming component mixed in because I almost never see cold anomalies forecasted by them over the CONUS. I usually just look at the H5 anomalies to decide whether it would be cold. It shows a monster -EPO ridge over AK and then somehow thinks Bismark ND is going to be +1.....uhhh, no.

It's almost as if they don't have their weighting correct in the model....

if i remember correctly they showed the pac ridging in 14/15 but badly missed the downstream cold

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like a healthy dose of NAO/EPO, but meager PNA...don't disagree.

I see where Raindancewx threw out 1951-52 but didn't include as an analog for winter, But he did say its a match to the ENSO state right now if i'm reading that right, That winter looked like it was a gradient one as NNE did quite well and SNE not so much in the snow dept.