ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I dont think its toasty here....initial dump is west, like last year, but I bet we see bit better luck this go around. Yeah that's not a warm look here at all. Def not as cold on the anomalies as the N plains would be but we'd be under some confluence there most likely. Either way, who knows if that actually verifies. Fodder for the anxious souls though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2019 Author Share Posted October 17, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that's not a warm look here at all. Def not as cold on the anomalies as the N plains would be but we'd be under some confluence there most likely. Either way, who knows if that actually verifies. Fodder for the anxious souls though. Raise your hand if you want to be directly under the heart of the cold..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2019 Share Posted October 17, 2019 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Raise your hand if you want to be directly under the heart of the cold..... No, that's not warm at all. That trough position and a -NAO is perfect, but that would work as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Raise your hand if you want to be directly under the heart of the cold..... Said no one, Lets keep it up into the Mt Valin/Labrador region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No, that's not warm at all. That trough position and a -NAO is perfect, but that would work as shown. I think he means being under a big cold and thus dry dome is useless...plains and GL can have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I think he means being under a big cold and thus dry dome is useless. Oh I know. I meant that it's still a chilly look for us even with some H5 ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Oh I know. I meant that it's still a chilly look for us even with some H5 ridging. Ah ok. I didn’t think he thought it was a warm look either...but I kinda thought it was, at least average. How can you tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Nevermind, I see it now. CFS, fwiw, looks good JFM with Feb as the best month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2019 Author Share Posted October 18, 2019 Credit to Scott and Nick for the seasonal guidance.....put some thoughts together this evening... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/winter-2020-preliminary-thoughts-vs.html More on ENSO next week, but I mentioned last month not to give up on marginal el nino. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Credit to Scott and Nick for the seasonal guidance.....put some thoughts together this evening... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/winter-2020-preliminary-thoughts-vs.html More on ENSO next week, but I mentioned last month not to give up on marginal el nino. Nice start. Lets see how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Looking back at what the Weather Channel forecast in August for Fall really gives some sense of how difficult this winter may be to nail. They really were quite close on September, I'd give it a B- (from mid-Aug), but their October forecast is going to be fairly opposite, with the very warm South, somewhat warm NE, and very cold NW. I don't really get why they expected the pattern to flip so quickly? I know its gotten colder since the early days of October when it was in the mid-90s as far as Philly...but still. I generally find their forecasts verify better than say, CPC or Weatherbell, and they're definitely better than WXRISK or Accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Looks like November opens kind of wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Oh dang, TWC >> DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looks like November opens kind of wintry. Given the developing -EPO and Atlantic blocking, November might actually turn out quite cold & dare I say snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 10 hours ago, raindancewx said: Looking back at what the Weather Channel forecast in August for Fall really gives some sense of how difficult this winter may be to nail. They really were quite close on September, I'd give it a B- (from mid-Aug), but their October forecast is going to be fairly opposite, with the very warm South, somewhat warm NE, and very cold NW. I don't really get why they expected the pattern to flip so quickly? I know its gotten colder since the early days of October when it was in the mid-90s as far as Philly...but still. I generally find their forecasts verify better than say, CPC or Weatherbell, and they're definitely better than WXRISK or Accuweather. My aunt is better than CPC at this. Ralphs weather posted the first map and a look back at last Oct CPC outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 How about a 1 month lead time? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 They made sure they thru in the caveat for New England to not think you won't see some cold and snow with there forecast........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: My aunt is better than CPC at this. Ralphs weather posted the first map and a look back at last Oct CPC outlook To be fair, they did OK on 2012-13 and 2013-14 even though they hosed 2009-12. NAtl blocking and the one-eyed pig...the two variables hardest to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 28 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said: To be fair, they did OK on 2012-13 and 2013-14 even though they hosed 2009-12. NAtl blocking and the one-eyed pig...the two variables hardest to predict. I think the pig isn’t so hard. NAO is tough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 1 hour ago, MJOatleast7 said: To be fair, they did OK on 2012-13 and 2013-14 even though they hosed 2009-12. NAtl blocking and the one-eyed pig...the two variables hardest to predict. Just goes to show its voodoo yet you see it on every media outlet there is. They never go back and judge it. Nothing gets fact checked in the media weather world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks, John. I'm honestly considering all of this stuff much more than I have in the past. Healthy dose of humility last year has served me well. I like your broader perspectives on matters though - just in case, don't be discouraged... The gist of your attack on the subject matter and overall outlook is what - I believe - one needs to formulate these seasonal outlooks. Not that you asked... but, my forte has always been in specific mid and extended range threat assessing, not so much seasonal-length stuff. My thing relies upon a different set of para and solid metrics. SO, I may not be the best choice for 'grading' you or anyone else, per se ...as I don't actually spend much time delving into one's scripture. When I mentioned it 'screwing up' seasonal outlooks early on ... I really only referred ( in my mind ) to what I remember individuals admitted and/or grousing upon in their own volition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Hey remember this, lol New England fans and fans across the country fell out of their seats when the opening TV shot came on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 I would even submit that those CPC temperature anomaly distributions in that product above are actually encouraging for cold enthusiasts - NCEP/CPC's method employs a strong multi-decadal trend component to their base-line, and rolling eyes aside, that's been a warm trend ... which is more than merely partial in why their seasonal outlooks are dominated by warm probabilities when they are published every autumn now going back many many years at this point. SO, in order to "compensate" for that rather robust preexisting bias, there may be some pretty impressive countering signals there. Cold NW loading would be necessary to render a weighted signal as neutral in this case, being the impetus. There's a need to see the "relativity" of there - relative to the GW signal and/or whatever it is that is causing the warmer starting biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I would even submit that those CPC temperature anomaly distributions in that product above are actually encouraging for cold enthusiasts - NCEP/CPC's method employs a strong multi-decadal trend component to their base-line, and rolling eyes aside, that's been a warm trend ... which is more than merely partial in why their seasonal outlooks are dominated by warm probabilities when they are published every autumn now going back many many years at this point. SO, in order to "compensate" for that rather robust preexisting bias, there may be some pretty impressive countering signals there. Cold NW loading would be necessary to render a weighted signal as neutral in this case, being the impetus. There's a need to see the "relativity" of there - relative to the GW signal and/or whatever it is that is causing the warmer starting biases. I don't know for sure on this so I don't state it as fact....but it seems the seasonal climate models have some sort of backround warming component mixed in because I almost never see cold anomalies forecasted by them over the CONUS. I usually just look at the H5 anomalies to decide whether it would be cold. It shows a monster -EPO ridge over AK and then somehow thinks Bismark ND is going to be +1.....uhhh, no. It's almost as if they don't have their weighting correct in the model.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey remember this, lol New England fans and fans across the country fell out of their seats when the opening TV shot came on. How much snow did they end up getting? I don’t remember getting a damn thing here... very localized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: How much snow did they end up getting? I don’t remember getting a damn thing here... very localized They got around 2-3 inches in Foxoborough....they were in a perfect spot and also that couple hundred extra feet helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't know for sure on this so I don't state it as fact....but it seems the seasonal climate models have some sort of backround warming component mixed in because I almost never see cold anomalies forecasted by them over the CONUS. I usually just look at the H5 anomalies to decide whether it would be cold. It shows a monster -EPO ridge over AK and then somehow thinks Bismark ND is going to be +1.....uhhh, no. It's almost as if they don't have their weighting correct in the model.... I think even in the industry, that is catching on. The H5 anomalies are a better prognosticator of surface departures vs actual model surface temp departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 You see it even in ensembles too. If I see a ridge in the east during the summer with a Sonoran connection, I'm going to take those temps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 18, 2019 Share Posted October 18, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't know for sure on this so I don't state it as fact....but it seems the seasonal climate models have some sort of backround warming component mixed in because I almost never see cold anomalies forecasted by them over the CONUS. I usually just look at the H5 anomalies to decide whether it would be cold. It shows a monster -EPO ridge over AK and then somehow thinks Bismark ND is going to be +1.....uhhh, no. It's almost as if they don't have their weighting correct in the model.... Yeah ...I'm with you on this. I actually stopped scratching my head over their seasonal outlooks because frankly, I don't even look anymore - I just go ahead and auto-assume they'll have somewhere between 30 and 60% probability for warmer than normal rust painted all over the map without even looking.. This is the first year in a bunch actually that I recall seeing that kind of large scale "implication" for an offsetting cool potential - even if it is just in a relative sense and is only achieving neutrality as the nadir ( Lakes /NP there). But that's true - I've done the exact same thing ( funny ) and wondered how in the f they got to even 30 % for above normal when the there are pretty obvious global markers for EPO this or AO that and so forth. Annoying.. I will give them credit on something ... about 7 or 9 years ago I wanna say, they begin putting caveat emptors into their discussions that go along with some of these annotation products, where they admit to less than ideal skill in predicting the EPO/AO/NAO polarward modulations. '...Tend to have intraseasonal variability that is both not well understood and therefore cannot be determined with much of any skill' - to paraphrase. That does sort of free them from absolute culpability when/if a winter does a 2014 in Chi-town ...or a 2015 in Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 18, 2019 Author Share Posted October 18, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't know for sure on this so I don't state it as fact....but it seems the seasonal climate models have some sort of backround warming component mixed in because I almost never see cold anomalies forecasted by them over the CONUS. I usually just look at the H5 anomalies to decide whether it would be cold. It shows a monster -EPO ridge over AK and then somehow thinks Bismark ND is going to be +1.....uhhh, no. It's almost as if they don't have their weighting correct in the model.... Agree. I never expect to see them run cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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