mreaves Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya well last year was a big let down for those calling for a big snow year, so I can understand you being hesitant. Stay off the AN Donkey this year..at least for a while, and see if any bigger signs show up over the next 5 weeks. I don’t know, some had a big snow year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Luke shook? As long as I can see this look I’m not too worried... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: Luke shook? As long as I can see this look I’m not too worried... Looks like they had a helluva winter SH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks like they had a helluva winter SH Compare my picture above with nearly identical date in 2011... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: Compare my picture above with nearly identical date in 2011... Hey pull up 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey pull up 2010 Here’s the October date...nao saved the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 How did we epic out in 2010-11 with that look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: How did we epic out in 2010-11 with that look? NPAC SSTs are not a good indicator IMO. I'll say this until I am blue in the face, but they can change quickly and are a product of the H5 pattern, not the other way around. Our biggest driver in terms of SSTs and the pattern are down in the tropical areas. This is where all the warm water is. These waters are what help to drive the MJO which then has a bigger impact to the Rossby wave look and the H5 pattern. All those years that had a prolonged surface warm pool in the NPAC featured an overall MJO standing wave look west of the dateline. Think 2013-2015ish. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Ah ha, makes sense Scoots. By month end we should see a change in the GOAK then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ah ha, makes sense Scoots. By month end we should see a change in the GOAK then. Well the EPS now has a +PNA look in the 11-15 day so it might not be much change. I guess my overall point is that do not concern yourself so much with NPAC SSTs in October. In 2011, we had that massive trough over that region for months, starting Sept-Oct. I think when you have big anomalies either way in the NPAC, it can help feedback a bit too. But IMO, it is not a leading driver of the hemispheric pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Luke didn't like that warm SST look in the GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 9 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Ya well last year was a big let down for those calling for a big snow year, so I can understand you being hesitant. Stay off the AN Donkey this year..at least for a while, and see if any bigger signs show up over the next 5 weeks. Well, I’m not factoring last year though into my early tempered expectations for this year. No PTSD here. This is just my weenie observation but it seems lately patterns lock in longer and are more extreme. By that I mean the wet dewy summer of 2018 which continued wet into the winter. 2019 has been dry especially Aug and Sept. These are just quick examples but if the AK vortex is showing up now, I’m hesitant to think it will be easy to move come Nov/Dec. It may just be brief troughing in that region with the usual yoyo back and forth so this is all for nothing. I dunno, just discussing and trying to learn more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well the EPS now has a +PNA look in the 11-15 day so it might not be much change. I guess my overall point is that do not concern yourself so much with NPAC SSTs in October. In 2011, we had that massive trough over that region for months, starting Sept-Oct. I think when you have big anomalies either way in the NPAC, it can help feedback a bit too. But IMO, it is not a leading driver of the hemispheric pattern. Yea I saw eps and even the gefs backed off the AK vortex idea too. I guess I meant if troughing persisted there next 2/3 weeks, we would have a different SST look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 We did well in 2010-2011 because had an obscene -NAO....and a -PNA is not some sort of death knell for New England. So many people get wrapped up in that. I feel like I say until I'm blue in the face, but a -PNA/-NAO combo is probably our best snow pattern. We literally went almost the entire 1960s with that setup. 2010-2011 was also that setup with the NAO on 'roids a bit more than normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Its coming first worries over the death star posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We did well in 2010-2011 because had an obscene -NAO....and a -PNA is not some sort of death knell for New England. So many people get wrapped up in that. I feel like I say until I'm blue in the face, but a -PNA/-NAO combo is probably our best snow pattern. We literally went almost the entire 1960s with that setup. 2010-2011 was also that setup with the NAO on 'roids a bit more than normal. Pickles fainted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We did well in 2010-2011 because had an obscene -NAO....and a -PNA is not some sort of death knell for New England. So many people get wrapped up in that. I feel like I say until I'm blue in the face, but a -PNA/-NAO combo is probably our best snow pattern. We literally went almost the entire 1960s with that setup. 2010-2011 was also that setup with the NAO on 'roids a bit more than normal. But the NAO has been non existent in winter except for Mar/Apr 17. Does it finally make a mid winter comeback this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: But the NAO has been non existent in winter except for Mar/Apr 17. Does it finally make a mid winter comeback this season? I think you mean March 2018....but yeah....it's been pretty rare recently. These things tend to swing back though....we couldn't buy a -NAO for a few years in the late 1990s as well. We don't really need it super negative...even neutral is pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 I think Luke is taking a “what can go wrong” approach which is prudent. That said-there isn’t really a whiff of a ratter signal at the moment. Gun to head I’d say normal for most-some good and bad spells but overall your average winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I think you mean March 2018....but yeah....it's been pretty rare recently. These things tend to swing back though....we couldn't buy a -NAO for a few years in the late 1990s as well. We don't really need it super negative...even neutral is pretty decent. Yes 18. It’s a fine line. I prefer -pna -nao since +pna systems can get away from me and crush east zones more so, obviously ridge placement is key. But when we have a -pna man can it get ugly without some semblance of canadian intrusion overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 What a storm in North Dakota. Seems this is a pretty rare event. Stronger winds and a secondary batch of snow is expected on Friday into at least early Saturday. This combination is expected to be crippling, especially for that Cooperstown to Devils Lake to Langdon corridor. For that reason, a blizzard warning was issued for this time frame. Impacts are hard to imagine, as these type of snow amounts and winds are incredibly rare. Have mentioned 1 to 3 feet of snow being possible in the blizzard warning area, with large, impassable drifts expected as well. This will not be an event where a uniform amount of snow is deposited, and is easily measured. Just like any blizzard, there may be little snow in open areas, and huge drifts nearby. Impacts should be a little less in the Red River Valley, and even lower moving east of the Red River Valley into Minnesota. Since the area east of the Red River Valley may not see snow until Friday morning, left the watch in effect for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Most impressive, And it’s just getting going...that’s a huge amount of snow for sure...just wow. Hope we can get something along these lines this winter here in SNE. Good for them, wish it was us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 53 minutes ago, BrianW said: What a storm in North Dakota. Seems this is a pretty rare event. What a drop off running down the middle of the state. It’s even too flat out there for weenies to have anything to jump off. I guess they’re stuck with toasters in the bathtub. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 15 hours ago, weathafella said: How did we epic out in 2010-11 with that look? Major blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 6 hours ago, Snow88 said: Major blocking But why? Usually with that look it’s hard to get nao but we got it and got it good.... i hope nao shows up this year and failing that EPO continues its trend of recent years and we get enough transient blocking to give us good snows. As mentioned yesterday-gun to head I think normal climo both in temperatures and snow this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: But why? Usually with that look it’s hard to get nao but we got it and got it good.... i hope nao shows up this year and failing that EPO continues its trend of recent years and we get enough transient blocking to give us good snows. As mentioned yesterday-gun to head I think normal climo both in temperatures and snow this winter. I had 60 inches of snow by Feb 1st that winter. What a good 1st half of winter it was. The 2nd half was bad because the bloxming went away and la nina took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 So BOX page no longer brings seasonal data. Link to Ncdc doesn’t work. One of these days we as a society will value the NWS to properly fund it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 On 10/10/2019 at 6:38 AM, weathafella said: Luke shook? As long as I can see this look I’m not too worried... More important is the robustness of squirrels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Near to slightly below avg temps/ slightly above snow is my very early guess, 40 -55", -1 to 0 DJF. BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 New UKMET Glosea5 is out today. Looks a bit nina-ish. Weak -EPO, -PNA, +NAO se ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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