Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the SSW played a large role, as it ultimately provided the impetus for the PV to coalesce and the MJO was just pinned. That is the risk in really meager ENSO events...alternate forcing mechanisms can interfere.

 

[ORH_wxman]

9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Do you think the overall velocity surplus might have played destructive interference role?

I don't think that was the big issue in the way I'm talking about it. We weren't lacking in events or overall QPF. 

Now maybe it played a role in not having a coastal bomb? Sure I buy that. We didn't have a coastal bomb in '07-'08 either likely due to the fast gradient flow. But we still had plenty of snow events. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

15 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am all set with SW waa events in marginal cold. Hope this year is weighted ed LPs traveling south of LI.. 

We had about 15 events where the mid level lows tracked west of Toronto. Abomination 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Where do we find the snowstorm records from 2000 to 2010 for New England?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think that was the big issue in the way I'm talking about it. We weren't lacking in events or overall QPF. 

Now maybe it played a role in not having a coastal bomb? Sure I buy that. We didn't have a coastal bomb in '07-'08 either likely due to the fast gradient flow. But we still had plenty of snow events. 

Starting to look more like a true modoki weak el nino...not even basin-wide, like last year.

[J.Spin]

18 hours ago, powderfreak said:

How the hell do I not remember last winter as a cold one?

I think you summed it up nicely in your later post – it was the right kind of cold, with the bookends and no extended periods of sitting in the dry, arctic chill that gives high temperatures only around 0 F.

The only notably cold stretch that immediately comes to mind was around the holidays?  We had friends visiting, and we probably would have headed out together for a ski day, but the temperatures really just weren’t friendly.  Great surface conditions probably could have tipped the scales a bit and tempted us to head out in the cold, but the surface conditions over the holiday period were nothing to write home about as I recall.  Between the cold temperatures and blasé conditions, I only headed out once during the entire holiday period, and that was in the Bolton BC.

Bookend cold, no extended arctic outbreaks, and 60+ snowstorms just doesn’t leave one with an especially “cold” taste in their mouth I guess.  There were certainly plenty of blemishes (lots of storms tracking to the northwest of the area, an overall poor December, etc.), but it was definitely a fine way to run a winter.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think that was the big issue in the way I'm talking about it. We weren't lacking in events or overall QPF. 

Now maybe it played a role in not having a coastal bomb? Sure I buy that. We didn't have a coastal bomb in '07-'08 either likely due to the fast gradient flow. But we still had plenty of snow events. 

yeah it's a good catch on your part; I was in fact thinking how fast flow/gradient saturation is detrimental in organizing and/or constructive cyclogenesis ... 

Overrunning and IB events...mm.. I'd almost wonder if the opposite is true - less conveyor belt systems and more overrunning actually.  I'm sure of it... it's like if you have 20 systems: 10 are overrunning and 10 are cyclone/belted in normal flow synoptics... In fast flow, you get the 20 but but 4 are cyclones and 16 are overrunning.  You have to have overrunning as a base-line requirement, and whether that kinking in the baroclinic fields takes place after the fact requires S/W wind differentials.   Fast flow absorbs those differentials..which is shearing and on and so on... So as a S/W enters an already velocity rich field the differential wind velocities are less and well..less cyclone.. but that still leaves the overrunning? if that makes sense...  So in that sense only the stronger S/W can get the deed done for cyclones in faster flows.   

It's really just velocity/vector arithmetic and mass budgeting.. 

I was pretty clear earlier to that other user that I didn't think the gradient/compression stuff necessarily meant less snow ...much for this line of reasoning. Fast in and out and low residence time, sure... 

There's another type of more continental system though...where you get duration just because it keeps coming at you ... The given system is synced and moving with the L/W resonance so even though the flow is hurried around -   Something similar took place a couple of times in 1993-1994 even though that example sort of predates the gradient/compression years since 2000.   I remember stationary boundaries with ripple lows and overrunning IP events with OES hexagons and dendrites flitting underneath that lasted 15 hours some times.  Weird f year... Anyway, I think we're playing with matches for a historic ice storm one of these years.  I could see a positive tilted deal with fast flow but the systemic features are locked in and it's days of it...  

[ORH_wxman]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Starting to look more like a true modoki weak el nino...not even basin-wide, like last year.

Maybe...There's a lot of cold water in the east that could keep this neutral though. The subsurface has some good warmth out in the west parts so maybe that surfaces even more, but there's no way to know which will win out....or at least that is beyond my pay grade. Lets see some WWBs though if it's gonna happen....it's getting late. We're already in October. Something developing by December may not matter that much for winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe...There's a lot of cold water in the east that could keep this neutral though. The subsurface has some good warmth out in the west parts so maybe that surfaces even more, but there's no way to know which will win out....or at least that is beyond my pay grade. Lets see some WWBs though if it's gonna happen....it's getting late. We're already in October. Something developing by December may not matter that much for winter.

Since 1990, every season which featured nino region 4 over+.5C in late september went on to become el nino. I had the list on my last blog. This one was +1.0.

[512high]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Starting to look more like a true modoki weak el nino...not even basin-wide, like last year.

What does that mean? A late start for snow?(please not a repeat of last year...)

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Since 1990, every season which featured nino region 4 over+.5C in late september went on to become el nino. I had the list on my last blog. This one was +1.0.

I'd bet dollars to donuts that none of them had Nino 3 as cold as it is this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

What does that mean? A late start for snow?(please not a repeat of last year...)

I think it would be good for winter as a whole, but it could mean a slower start, too. But el nino is far from a given, as Will said. My point last week was just that it remains a plausibility.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd bet dollars to donuts that none of them had Nino 3 as cold as it is this year.

I'd have to look back...I think 1994 was actually the best match, but the eastern regions were warming quickly by now.

Anyway, 3.4 is what matters, and its about +0.5 now..

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd bet dollars to donuts that none of them had Nino 3 as cold as it is this year.

This was raindancewx's response last week, but he is about ready to give up on neutral now.

[512high]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This was raindancewx's response last week, but he is about ready to give up on neutral now.

slow start is "ok" .......reminds me of winter 14' then late Jan-Feb 15' was incredible , (wishful thinking), has ISOTHERM posted anything on his thoughts on the New England forum yet? I think he's from NY?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd have to look back...I think 1994 was actually the best match, but the eastern regions were warming quickly by now.

Anyway, 3.4 is what matters, and its about +0.5 now..

2012 is a good match too...cold waters in the east can get drawn west pretty quickly if we have an easterly wind burst. So that's why I want to see some good WWBs.

I'm not trying to totally discount a Nino, I just think it's still not a foregone conclusion. A lot of us we're getting convinced of a weak Nino in autumn of 2012 too before it crapped out pretty fast in November.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

2012 is a good match too...cold waters in the east can get drawn west pretty quickly if we have an easterly wind burst. So that's why I want to see some good WWBs.

I'm not trying to totally discount a Nino, I just think it's still not a foregone conclusion. A lot of us we're getting convinced of a weak Nino in autumn of 2012 too before it crapped out pretty fast in November.

I totally agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, 512high said:

slow start is "ok" .......reminds me of winter 14' then late Jan-Feb 15' was incredible , (wishful thinking), has ISOTHERM posted anything on his thoughts on the New England forum yet? I think he's from NY?

I haven't seen anything from him yet...

[ORH_wxman]

54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I totally agree.

Whether it registers as an official Niño or not, I made the comment a while back that i really like the western regions being a lot warmer than the east right now. The physics of that doesn't change whether it officially registers...it should still make convection more likely near the dateline versus further east and that is a good thing for winter enthusiasts. 

The tepid nature of the anomalies though understandably diminishes the overall impact. I know Tip hit on this point. But still, all else equal, we'd rather have the warmer anomalies west and not east. 

[frd]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe...There's a lot of cold water in the east that could keep this neutral though. The subsurface has some good warmth out in the west parts so maybe that surfaces even more, but there's no way to know which will win out....or at least that is beyond my pay grade. Lets see some WWBs though if it's gonna happen....it's getting late. We're already in October. Something developing by December may not matter that much for winter.

HM believes it is a full on Modoki , one interesting element is the Modoki back drop combined with the warm GOA and any interaction between them. 

Good thread here with replies. 

 

 

[MarkO]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it would be good for winter as a whole, but it could mean a slower start, too. But el nino is far from a given, as Will said. My point last week was just that it remains a plausibility.

Doesn't Modoki-weak Nino generally translate to above average snowfall for NNE, near average for CNE, and below average for SNE? Last year played out that way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MarkO said:

Doesn't Modoki-weak Nino generally translate to above average snowfall for NNE, near average for CNE, and below average for SNE? Last year played out that way.

No.

Modoki is best for mid atl and sne, but good everywhere. Mod is better for mid atl, weak sne.

[Ginx snewx]

Scooter hates the NE blob stuff. New study out says hold up Scott.

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0118.1

[CoastalWx]

19 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Scooter hates the NE blob stuff. New study out says hold up Scott.

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0118.1

Taking forever to download. Anyways those blobs are a function of sun kissed SSTs from ridging aloft. And 2015-2016 was dry in CA relatively speaking?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I continue not to like the look in AK as we head towards month end. I know I know, the pac looks good should lead to higher heights and it’s only Oct, etc but...I can’t shake this idea that patterns lock in longer these days and if the vortex sets shop, it’s an even more difficult pattern to erase. 

[CoastalWx]

It’s way too early for concern. AK in fall is rather stormy so it’s not uncommon. If the Death Star happens near Thanksgiving and shows no signs of stopping on ensembles or sub seasonal guidance, then maybe I’ll be a little more concerned. 

[512high]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s way too early for concern. AK in fall is rather stormy so it’s not uncommon. If the Death Star happens near Thanksgiving and shows no signs of stopping on ensembles or sub seasonal guidance, then maybe I’ll be a little more concerned. 

way too early Scott? Its October we have to wait near or close to thanksgiving? I figured early October should be a sign , pretty close to being locked and loaded?

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 512high said:

way too early Scott? Its October we have to wait near or close to thanksgiving? I figured early October should be a sign , pretty close to being locked and loaded?

October? The only seasonal signal this early that may give you a clue is ENSO. That is whether we are nino or Nina. We are sort of neither right now. With most a strong signal, it’s tough to say what will happen. So certainly something like a trough near AK at this time will not spook me. It’s part of their weather in then fall. Hell in winter too. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Cautiously optimistic but I’m deff noticing a slight hesitation within myself to ride the AN snow donkey. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cautiously optimistic but I’m deff noticing a slight hesitation within myself to ride the AN snow donkey. 

Ya well last year was a big let down for those calling for a big snow year, so I can understand you being hesitant.  Stay off the AN Donkey this year..at least for a while, and see if any bigger  signs show up over the next 5 weeks.