Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think speed of movement is that big of a deal. Its all about dynamics because most of the snow usually falls in a 6-12 hr window, anyway. How impactful if is that extra 6-12 hours of shreded returns?

This is why we continue to get huge events amidst the compressed background flow. Now, if you want to argue that the fast flow will make phasing more difficult, maybe, but I don't think we are there yet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/2/2019 at 10:50 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Well shoot...we're gonna have to deal with the fast flow crap again? Kinda helped to screw up the winter on the east coast in general (with just mild to middling events at best). The heck has been causing this "fast flow"?

The fast flow can be a good thing or a bad thing in relation to track. It depends on the degree of phasing and percise location and overall speed of trough axis.

[TalcottWx]

i think Dorchester sees 250" of snow this winter. Just my unbiased opinion.

[raindancewx]

I have a pretty snowy winter for the US generally this year. Our mountains here won't have snow on them from mid-October to mid-June like last year, but the mountains never really stopped dropping into the teens/20s this Summer here, there were frosts in populated towns in July on some nights. The entrenched night time dryness favors high snow ratios out here, even by mountain standards, even though the precipitation signal (for totals) isn't great. Ski visits and resort level snow were the best since 1997-98 out here, with 140-180% of normal values at that level, including early openings and late season extensions (Nov 16-Apr 10 or so, v. the more typical Nov 23-Apr 3).

I have a sharp gradient between Northern Maine and Boston for anomalies this year, essentially the reverse of last year, with Boston seeing more relatively, and Maine seeing less relatively as you head North. US should be much drier than last year, but I think the storms that come through will often be extremely powerful. Something like +30% by Boston v. -30% by Caribou if I remember correctly, for snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I have a pretty snowy winter for the US generally this year. Our mountains here won't have snow on them from mid-October to mid-June like last year, but the mountains never really stopped dropping into the teens/20s this Summer here, there were frosts in populated towns in July on some nights. The entrenched night time dryness favors high snow ratios out here, even by mountain standards, even though the precipitation signal (for totals) isn't great. Ski visits and resort level snow were the best since 1997-98 out here, with 140-180% of normal values at that level, including early openings and late season extensions (Nov 16-Apr 10 or so, v. the more typical Nov 23-Apr 3).

I have a sharp gradient between Northern Maine and Boston for anomalies this year, essentially the reverse of last year, with Boston seeing more relatively, and Maine seeing less relatively as you head North. US should be much drier than last year, but I think the storms that come through will often be extremely powerful. Something like +30% by Boston v. -30% by Caribou if I remember correctly, for snowfall.

Thanks for the thoughts. Hope you're right. I also don't really see an interior ne winter like many.

We'll see.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks for the thoughts. Hope you're right. I also don't really see an interior ne winter like many.

We'll see.

I see a slightly favored central New England snowfall this winter, with potentially for a higher above average snow over the I-95 corridor points eastward from eastern CT to ME.

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I see a slightly favored central New England snowfall this winter, with potentially for a higher above average snow over the I-95 corridor points eastward from eastern CT to ME.

I am probably the most indecisive at this juncture that I have been since I delved deeply into seasonal outlooks 5 years ago, but I don't see anything that screams "interior".

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am probably the most indecisive at this juncture that I have been since I delved deeply into seasonal outlooks 5 years ago, but I don't see anything that screams "interior".

I believe the pattern switches to favor eastern half of New England, I just don't know where the way above average snows occur just yet.  I am favoring central to eastern interior New England, but it could end up on the coast by the first two weeks of November when I issue my official forecast.  Question becomes, winters like 2014-2015 and 2004-2005 or is it closer to 2013-2014 and 2010-2011?

[CoastalWx]

Quite the interesting set of years.      You got completely hosed in 10-11. 

 

Anyways, the signal is very weak for anything decisive right now. I heard some people even entertain a Nina flavor....but I really have no guess right now.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Quite the interesting set of years.      You got completely hosed in 10-11. 

 

Anyways, the signal is very weak for anything decisive right now. I heard some people even entertain a Nina flavor....but I really have no guess right now.

Well once we get into November, there should be a better consensus with the ENSO conditions.  Yeah I wasn't really using my area per se for the years.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Quite the interesting set of years.      You got completely hosed in 10-11. 

 

Anyways, the signal is very weak for anything decisive right now. I heard some people even entertain a Nina flavor....but I really have no guess right now.

We did get jackpot from the December 20th 2010 Snowstorm.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

One huge impact factor for determining snowstorms of major magnitudes and snow that falls on the Cape and Islands is the Banana High Pressure, it is a real factor, more real than I imagined.  It is present in all the big nor'easters for Cape Cod.  No matter the intensity of the storm or high, the structure of the high is most important.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

One huge impact factor for determining snowstorms of major magnitudes and snow that falls on the Cape and Islands is the Banana High Pressure, it is a real factor, more real than I imagined.  It is present in all the big nor'easters for Cape Cod.  No matter the intensity of the storm or high, the structure of the high is most important.

Okay ...and seeing as 99.9% of civility accessible/accessing this social-media pass-time do not and most likely will not be present around those locations during snowstorms of major magnitudes and --> snow <-- ... no matter the intensity of the --> storm <-- ( lotion and kleenex) ... 

what do Banana High Pressures mean for them ?

Oh ..I see - heh.  Your post was in deference to that immediate conversation spin-off... I thought you were itching to posit some profoundly moving insight about the proximity of Cape and Islands whole world to typology of cold weather phenomenon -

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay ...and seeing as 99.9% of civility accessible/accessing this social-media pass-time do not and most likely will not be present around those locations during snowstorms of major magnitudes and --> snow <-- ... no matter the intensity of the --> storm <-- ( lotion and kleenex) ... 

what do Banana High Pressures mean for them ?

Oh ..I see - heh.  Your post was in deference to that immediate conversation spin-off... I thought you were itching to posit some profoundly moving insight about the proximity science of cold weather phenomenon -

Oh, I was just posting something I found really interesting from the recent research I have been doing for winter nor'easters and how it impacts snow on Cape Cod, compared to most other non-snow events here.  My prime location of focus is on Cape Cod, this is where my livelihood is focused and is impacted.  My dad relies on my knowledge of the weather and as well as his customers.

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Oh, I was just posting something I found really interesting from the recent research I have been doing for winter nor'easters and how it impacts snow on Cape Cod, compared to most other non-snow events here.  My prime location of focus is on Cape Cod, this is where my livelihood is focused and is impacted.  My dad relies on my knowledge of the weather and as well as his customers.

You should preface with something close to this bold statement ... maybe adding this, 'which this is only pertinent to the cape and islands,'   THEN, proceed with the rest of your paragraph ? 

Yeah...cuz otherwise, when one blurts out of left field, it tempts others to roll-eyes. Without providing context, they will invariably figure for gooberism - 

 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You should preface with something close to this bold statement ...THEN, proceed with the rest of your paragraph ? 

Yeah...cuz otherwise, when one blurts out of left field, it tempts others to roll-eyes. Without providing context, they will invariably figure for gooberism - 

 

Yeah, that was my bad.  Just excited to point that out.

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I have a pretty snowy winter for the US generally this year. Our mountains here won't have snow on them from mid-October to mid-June like last year, but the mountains never really stopped dropping into the teens/20s this Summer here, there were frosts in populated towns in July on some nights. The entrenched night time dryness favors high snow ratios out here, even by mountain standards, even though the precipitation signal (for totals) isn't great. Ski visits and resort level snow were the best since 1997-98 out here, with 140-180% of normal values at that level, including early openings and late season extensions (Nov 16-Apr 10 or so, v. the more typical Nov 23-Apr 3).

I have a sharp gradient between Northern Maine and Boston for anomalies this year, essentially the reverse of last year, with Boston seeing more relatively, and Maine seeing less relatively as you head North. US should be much drier than last year, but I think the storms that come through will often be extremely powerful. Something like +30% by Boston v. -30% by Caribou if I remember correctly, for snowfall.

Boston has 30%+ snowfall departures all the time, but in 79 winters CAR has recorded snowfall under 70% of average just 7 times, and only twice since 1961-62.  They've been 130%+ a bit more often, with 10 such winters.  Thus 78% of CAR winters have had snowfall within 30% of their average.  At BOS that figure is just 48%.  Or to turn that around, 52% of BOS winters are more than 30% from their average, while at CAR it's 22% with such variance.  (My BOS data only goes back thru 1920, with 96-97 and 97-98 missing, so 97 winters, with 28 under 70% and 22 over 130%.)  You could be exactly right, but climo says the odds of verification are much longer at CAR..

[ORH_wxman]

38 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Boston has 30%+ snowfall departures all the time, but in 79 winters CAR has recorded snowfall under 70% of average just 7 times, and only twice since 1961-62.  They've been 130%+ a bit more often, with 10 such winters.  Thus 78% of CAR winters have had snowfall within 30% of their average.  At BOS that figure is just 48%.  Or to turn that around, 52% of BOS winters are more than 30% from their average, while at CAR it's 22% with such variance.  (My BOS data only goes back thru 1920, with 96-97 and 97-98 missing, so 97 winters, with 28 under 70% and 22 over 130%.)  You could be exactly right, but climo says the odds of verification are much longer at CAR..

Yeah I hate using percent of normal for snowfall...it's not apples to apples between sites.

 

Need to use sigma (standard dev) instead to standardize it. But I think too many people's eyes gloss over when we start talking about a 1 sigma or a half sigma snowfall season.

[Torch Tiger]

4 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe the pattern switches to favor eastern half of New England, I just don't know where the way above average snows occur just yet.  I am favoring central to eastern interior New England, but it could end up on the coast by the first two weeks of November when I issue my official forecast.  Question becomes, winters like 2014-2015 and 2004-2005 or is it closer to 2013-2014 and 2010-2011?

I don't see any indications of either above avg. (or "way above") snow or well below cold.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I don't see any indications of either above avg. (or "way above") snow or well below cold.

Its nowhere near official at this point.  I am leaning this way with the Neutral ENSO predicted by the CPC

[Torch Tiger]

neutral ENSO favors harsh winters in NE? Nah.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

43 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

neutral ENSO favors harsh winters in NE? Nah.

It could go either way right now, which is why neutral is the right way to predict right now.  Most winters are harsh in New England, very few are tame.  Just the location varies.

[Ginx snewx]

We need @dryslotsnow and temps by Enso in this thread 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We need @dryslotsnow and temps by Enso in this thread 

 

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

It could go either way right now, which is why neutral is the right way to predict right now.  Most winters are harsh in New England, very few are tame.  Just the location varies.

Well it depends what you consider harsh. when I say harsh it means prolonged bn cold with arctic intrusions and at least average or above snow. That really doesn't qualify many winters in SNE, honestly. Neutral ENSO or a weak signal in general doesn't add much confidence jmo

[Ginx snewx]

You the man Jeff

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

neutral ENSO favors harsh winters in NE? Nah.

Some like 92 /93 93/94 were others not. Lets see what the average on Jeffs chart in Boston when Enso is +.5 to -.5

[dendrite]

Someone needs to black out BUF from those charts...pretty much useless for our purposes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some like 92 /93 93/94 were others not. Lets see what the average on Jeffs chart in Boston when Enso is +.5 to -.5

I'd take the former over the latter....92-93 was bookended by two of the best events of my life. 

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some like 92 /93 93/94 were others not. Lets see what the average on Jeffs chart in Boston when Enso is +.5 to -.5

My guess is a fairly cold winter, but maybe dry.