Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

47 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

This subdued fast flow events will likely preclude major nor'easters and blizzards potential, but may add to the more moderate snow event threat level.  Perhaps no major NESIS like storms of 4 or 5 levels, but more so 2-3 level events. 

Well shoot...we're gonna have to deal with the fast flow crap again? Kinda helped to screw up the winter on the east coast in general (with just mild to middling events at best). The heck has been causing this "fast flow"?

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well shoot...we're gonna have to deal with the fast flow crap again? Kinda helped to screw up the winter on the east coast in general (with just mild to middling events at best)

While last winter was a bad one if you love snow events on the coast, but the more favorable winters of the past that featured this fast flow regime did not show with monster singular nor'easters/blizzard events, the winter of 2013-2014 featured several significant snow events.  However, the progressive nature is the major difference between 15-20" events and the monster 30-40" events that are featured in a less compressive flow regimes, the Boxing Day 2010, Nemo 2013, Juno 2015 all seem to represent the meridional/slow flow events.  These winters if my recollection is correct happened in weak El Nino events.  As John mentioned, the global warming phenomenon is leading to less impactful ENSO events, and more consistent continental pattern events and sectional teleconnection pattern enhancers like the AO/NAO/PNA combinations.  The certain pattern each factor is in, will help determine the outcome of each potential storm and the period it occurs within.  With the potential for a warmer NW Atlantic Ocean, north of the Gulf Stream, we could perhaps have an enhanced baroclinic zone further northwest than the suppression year of 2013-2014 and perhaps a more eastward progression of said zone from the 2018-2019 winter track.  I find the science behind the individual storms the major influences as to why my love for the weather puzzle has never diminished in the last 15 years I have been following it religiously.  Perhaps a bigger devotion to the science of storm impact predictions will lead to a level headed approach to each individual event window.  

[dendrite]

56 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Looking forward for a better outlook on life, a more subdued enthusiasm for winter storms and more realistic approach to snowfall forecasts...Therefore an average winter seems appropriate at this time and juncture.

Man...losing power has changed you. You're really serious about needing to watch every Pats game.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

Just now, dendrite said:

Man...losing power has changed you. You're really serious about needing to watch every Pats game.

Honestly the only way I am willing to give power away is in a hurricane that happens in early August, or a Blizzard in January or February that can produce over 24" of snow.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man...losing power has changed you. You're really serious about needing to watch every Pats game.

Dendrite, I want to be taken seriously in the weather world and in my own life, and it starts with making changes where I might be most of the time each day.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

37 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Dendrite, I want to be taken seriously in the weather world and in my own life, and it starts with making changes where I might be most of the time each day.

You’re good man. Self reflection to make positive changes is a skill not many are willing to learn so I commend you for it. The less narcissistic our world is, the better....and critical progress can be achieved on a large scale. It all starts with me, you....each one of us. 

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re good man. Self reflection to make positive changes is a skill not many are willing to learn so I commend you for it. The less narcissistic our world is, the better....and critical progress can be achieved on a large scale. It all starts with me, you....each one of us. 

It's just unfortunate for those of us that have no more room to grow or improve 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray, are you favoring a neutral ENSO right now?  Have your thoughts changed from earlier this summer?

If I had to say right now, I'd probably go +.35 to +.45C NDJ peak.

[weathafella]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder how much of this sst distribution is more seasonal/ephemeral ( perhaps even typology ) in that regard, though.  The homogeneous layout of warm vs cool, above and below the equator respectively, leaps out at me. 

The southern hemisphere is modestly negative in a coherently pervasive characteristic layout there - that strikes me as interestingly coincident with the ending frames of the southern hemispheric winter.  Vice versa over the northern hemisphere. It doesn't appear there are many convincing "regions" that are identifiable and the ubiquitous nature of the positive anomalies may thus also be seasonal in nature.   If these sources are using a sliding mean ( which picks up on multi-decadal adjusted averages in GW paradigm) that could explain the southern hemisphere "normal" winter look below average.  

The question is, ..are these anomalies relative to some 50 or 100 years data mean? Or, are they relative to season or intraseasonal time scale?  That's important in answering the above question.  

And it is an important question ...because using these to assess correlatives with specific features and characters may be entirely futile if 20 minutes of seasonal wind stressing essentially annihilates these complexions in lieu of a more permanent/longer term truth of what the distribution is/or will be... The thermocline depths and integrated upper 300 to 500 m of ocean plays an important role in these overall distinctions.  

The nearly homogeneous layout of modest negative anomaly spanning the southern hemisphere deeper latitudes is interesting, either way.  

Important question and presuming we’re living 25 years ago could potentially lead us astray.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I am not aware of the October weather patterns and their correlation to potential winter weather impacts on patterns and what not, but the models are showing the pattern beginning to favor winter aspects we can expect in the winter months of New England weather.  One such phenomenon is the Alberta Clipper/miller B development that the models show happening in the short term, snow in the Northern New England, mtns of Maine and then spotty showery activity for most of New England.  The second such sign is the rapid build-up of cold arctic air masses in northern, central and southern Canada towards Mid-month.  Then once upon the 19th of OCT the GFS leads a charge of cold air into the Northeastern CONUS and Great Lakes region.  Perhaps our first or second episode of heavy lake effect snows.

[Typhoon Tip]

I would argue that modeling tenor(s) is/are just increasing gradient - so far - amid a pattern that's maintained the same scaffold it has all summer since April. 

I have noticed ... or had it dawn on me mid way through, the models overall have had a subtle bias in both ridge and troughs in the D6 to especially 10 range - and that includes the Euro in it's own inimitable way ( despite it's correction schemes, which really are not apparently as effective in smoothing beyond D5 anyway).  When either trough or ridge is distantly fetching into the edge of the runs they end up having normalizing into a dullard complexion in nearer terms.    

Troughs and ridges being over done in the extended is par for the course of most guidance, anyway.  But this has been very almost machine like in regularity - and given to the shared ownership of that bias across all of them, it makes me wonder if it is something about the whole gestalt of the circulation that is causing the models to do that ... As an aside, it is possible that the peregrinations of technology, et al, have just wended these tools into a scenario of shared tendency..  

Anyway, the current heat in the S/SE was supposed to at least time-share up our way and never really did.  That's an example of this correction shit, among countless..  And, I suspect the packing pellets while hurrying a final lawn maintenance afternoon as wafts of wood smoke pass by Scott's nose look of the D10 Euro may also be too much when time comes.  

That all said, I do think that with the ENSO taking a back-sea, while there is some suggestion that the hemisphere is in a -AO longer term tendency .. I wonder if a 1995 similar autumn could take place.  That was fascinating year.  It still is my number 2 ranked winter behind 1978 ( but it's arguable...), just because these were uniquely delivering/satisfying winter pummeling over multi-regional spaces of the eastern continent.  2015 was too localized to SNE, but .. yes, if we choose to look at the world as flat-earth ending at the end of the street, the whole world had that greatest winter since the Pleistocene advance ... I realize this sparks vitriol. It's like you dare bring an objective analysis about Tom Brady's short comings to a sports-radio talk show that services Patriot fans .. and holy hell it's a good thing no one knows where you live. The reality is, the impact of that snow was mitigated some by the fact that 90% of it happened with DPs less than an inCREdibly lofty pwat, 10 f'um F degree temperature ... Jesus, one storm I blizzard walked was like shattered down-feathers to 20" that I was able to cut foot falls through for over a mile with almost no increased heart rate it was so gossamer .. Yet all there was was trophy hoisting.  All that winter did, over a somewhat goegraphically reduced area, was inflate tallness of the numbers.  In a way like that pro athlete that owns all records, but his/her teams never win any championships. But in deference and compassion to incensed sanctimony ...  yes of course 120" in five weeks did some damage and lives on in infamy.  The winter is a solid #3  

Both the 1978 and 1995 were -AO dominant winters ... or in the least, timed pulses negative with Pacific ejections...  I almost see this year as having a chance ( at least ) to see something similar.  But again... the fast fast fast flow that is present [ and probably more likely to plague winters going forward ] adds an element of uncertainty.      

 

[Ginx snewx]

Blue sky and raining 49 degrees 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Blue sky and raining 49 degrees 

Is that your winter outlook?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Both the 1978 and 1995 were -AO dominant winters ... or in the least, timed pulses negative with Pacific ejections...  I almost see this year as having a chance ( at least ) to see something similar.  But again... the fast fast fast flow that is present [ and probably more likely to plague winters going forward ] adds an element of uncertainty.    

And getting back to this...I have to wonder whether this means nor'easters would eventually go extinct? (Man, I hope not). I mean...does fast flow mean no coastal? (I may be oversimplifying this)

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And getting back to this...I have to wonder whether this means nor'easters would eventually go extinct? (Man, I hope not). I mean...does fast flow mean no coastal? (I may be oversimplifying this)

In what winter did we not have nor’easters?  Fast flow with well timed blocking has give sne tons of fun over the years.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

In what winter did we not have nor’easters?  Fast flow with well timed blocking has give sne tons of fun over the years.

Admittedly...I'm a visitor to this forum and actually live in the Mid-ATL (but during winter "preseason", I kinda mill around the other EC forums since the discussion is more generally applicable, lol)--so not as familiar with sne climo! I had assumed that since nor'easters "crawl" up the coast, I thought the prospect of having more fast flow in the future meant things just kinda slip by (but I am a novice, so feel free to correct me)

[dryslot]

We have had snow with coastals in a fast flow regime in many seasons when the pattern was set in that, Just may not be SECS like some would like to see.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Is that your winter outlook?

Pretty much 

[Torch Tiger]

I hear DT is going big again this winter after last years disaster. I guess he'll eventually nail one

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And getting back to this...I have to wonder whether this means nor'easters would eventually go extinct? (Man, I hope not). I mean...does fast flow mean no coastal? (I may be oversimplifying this)

Short answer(s) ?

No, it doesn't necessarily mean either of those two things ( technically the terms 'Nor'easter' and 'coastal' should be interchangeable in this context ). 

Quick clarification:  I wasn't really meaning to comment as to the whether or not the phenomenon can occur.  

Thinking back to those massive events ... Jan 1978 in the Lakes, and again in Feb back here in the east that year, as well as the Jan 5-8th 1995 "Megalopolis" slow moving blizzard:  Those fateful events of lore slowed to a crawl while maxing out. When systems do that, they are perfect for exposing the "lucky" impact regions to proficient precipitation mechanics, as well as any other storm-related parametrics such as wind/chill... drifting ... effects on tides where that matters, and so on.  Storms in fast flows max out, but they don't hammer a region inside the bears cage in the same protracted measure.  

The impact aspect in the now-vs-then discussion has sparked many -a debate.  Somewhere, somehow, there is an objective comparison, and out of that a reality "precipitates" ( haha ) that a foot of snow falling in 1978 was more impacting than 1995, which was more impacting than 2005, which was more impacting than 2020, "driven" variously improving tech/infrastructural standards.  At some point "NESIS" probably would need to be considered for revision - if that hasn't happened already - to factor in relative Impact potential/part of that acronym.  Not sure we are there yet... but I am fortunate in that I am old enough to remember a time when 6" of snow was more of an obstacle to common societal business affairs/operations than it is today, first hand. In fact, anyone whose childhood was in the 1980s should be able to vouch for this change. 

But I'm digressing..  

The fast flow is still going to produce cyclogensis ... and those regions are still going to be favored where they always have been. But, when they engineer in a region that is speed saturated, they'll tend to conserve the back-ground state and end up moving right along whether they are deep and moving slowly or moderately so, and zipping in and out. 

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

In what winter did we not have nor’easters?  Fast flow with well timed blocking has give sne tons of fun over the years.

His point is the ceiling is significantly lowered on those events in fast flow (large DM gradient)  

Hoping this is a bunch of Balderdash 

Coastal will say “we’re fine” but I’m looking for something a little more in depth 

[dendrite]

47 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I hear DT is going big again this winter after last years disaster. I guess he'll eventually nail one

Never forget.

https://web.archive.org/web/20020204130614/http://www.wxrisk.com/Seasonalforcst/Winter01-02/Winter2001-02.htm

[dryslot]

Whats JB's take???

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Whats JB's take???

Whatever sucks the tip of his narcissism and is needed regardless of morality to fulfill his celebrity lust -

[dryslot]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Whatever sucks the tip of his narcissism and immorality to celebrity lust -

I don't read him or follow but someone mentioned somewhere he cancelled winter which is quite un busthardy like.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don't read him or follow but someone mentioned somewhere he cancelled winter which is quite un busthardy like.

yeah I don't know ... I was being an asshole. But he's lost credibility in my mind years ago due to quite obvious pandering tactics involving drama/publication efforts.. .Leaving it at that.. 

[dryslot]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah I don't know ... I was being an asshole. But he's lost credibility in my mind years ago due to quite obvious pandering tactics involving drama/publication efforts.. .Leaving it at that.. 

In it for the $$$, I think someone mentioned hype sells...................

[rclab]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah I don't know ... I was being an asshole. But he's lost credibility in my mind years ago due to quite obvious pandering tactics involving drama/publication efforts.. .Leaving it at that.. 

Confession is good for the soul even when it’s not necessary, besides you were just living up to your screen name. As always ....

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Never forget.

https://web.archive.org/web/20020204130614/http://www.wxrisk.com/Seasonalforcst/Winter01-02/Winter2001-02.htm

  I remember that

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Whats JB's take???

It's gonna be a cold and snowy one