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Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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Posted
  On 10/26/2019 at 12:07 AM, raindancewx said:

I'm pretty happy with what I have for the Northeast for snow. One of the loose guidelines in El Ninos that I can do for Boston is to look at October rainfall in Albuquerque v. Boston snowfall. For El Ninos since 1931, this formula is about 90% likely to be within 26 inches of the observed total for Boston:

Boston July-June snowfall in inches = 51.416*(2.718^-0.2692x), where x is total precipitation in Albuquerque in October.

If you go back to the 1800s, with 15/17 low-solar El Nino years seeing less than 45 inches of snow in Boston, it seems like its fairly safe to eliminate most of the right side of the 90% confidence interval for this year, which would be 44", +/-26". I don't think Albuquerque rainfall is completely independent from solar activity...but it's pretty independent? In El Ninos, you definitely have real statistical relationships between the SW and NE for precipitation patterns. Total rainfall here so far is about 0.58" for October. We might get some snow by the end of the month or a bit more rain. 2014 is similar for rain here...but much higher solar activity, and completely different in October nationally. In 2018, we had 1.99" in October - that wasn't apparent when I did my Oct 10 forecast last year, but when it happened it was consistent with the idea of Boston being below average as you can see.

u2RAfe1.png

El Nino Sun Jul-J Bos Snow
1899 18.2 25.0
1900 8.6 17.5
1902 18.7 42.0
1911 5.4 31.6
1913 7.4 39.0
1914 44.5 22.3
1923 14.6 29.8
1930 46.3 40.8
1953 9.5 23.6
1963 29.1 63.0
1965 37.1 44.1
1976 23.2 58.5
1986 19.1 42.5
1994 36.9 14.9
2006 20.1 17.1
2009 13.2 35.7
2018 5.5 27.4
Mean 21.0 33.8


 

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Good luck this year. I have really come to appreciate your work and have learned a great deal from it.

I do not expect a blockbuster in Boston, so we agree there.

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Torch Tiger

Torch Tiger

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  On 10/26/2019 at 2:55 AM, Hoth said:

F yes. Felt like three months of rain with a single decent event in March. Made worse by the heightened expectations going into the season and all the Modoki malarky. 

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expectations drive disappointment. Last winter had few if any signals for anything big. Definitely a ratter for many imo including Boston, marginally.

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Torch Tiger

Torch Tiger

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Posted
  On 10/26/2019 at 3:10 AM, SnoSki14 said:

JB also thinks the Earth has been in a global cooling phase for the past decade.

And though I like DT he can quickly get ahead of himself. 

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That was tongue-in-cheek..heh I've been reading them for at least 20 or 25 years and am somewhat familiar the track records.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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  On 10/26/2019 at 10:07 AM, Dr. Dews said:

expectations drive disappointment. Last winter had few if any signals for anything big. Definitely a ratter for many imo including Boston, marginally.

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  On 10/26/2019 at 11:20 AM, Hoth said:

DT also called for 200% of normal last winter from the MA up through NE. JB is just JB.

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Having insight into the fact that the consensus forecast for a big winter last year failed is one thing, but claiming that there were no data to support such an outcome in the first place is incorrect.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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  On 10/26/2019 at 2:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People also lose sight of the fact that it was a pretty damn impressive year about 150mi nw of here.....this wasn't 2001-2002.

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Biggest problem with nailing a forecast here is the NAO is mostly stochastic. We have not been able to forecast it with any skill unlike the PAC. 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

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  On 10/26/2019 at 4:38 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right...it was just so immensely frustrating that people treat it like one.

Losing by one every night can be perceived as badly or worse than getting blown out with regularity.

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Agreed.

In SW CT we were 73% of average, hardly a ratter. However the high expectations and close calls made it feel "heartbreaking".

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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  On 10/26/2019 at 2:40 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Biggest problem with nailing a forecast here is the NAO is mostly stochastic. We have not been able to forecast it with any skill unlike the PAC. 

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Yea, the SSW providing the impetus for tremendous PV recovery coupled with a stagnant MJO doomed any prospect for second half blocking until............spring.

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Hoth

Hoth

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  On 10/26/2019 at 2:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Having insight into the fact that the consensus forecast for a big winter last year failed is one thing, but claiming that there were no data to support such an outcome in the first place is incorrect.

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I didn't claim there was no data. I merely stated that DT put out a very bullish forecast last year and crashed and burned hard. I deemed last year a ratter mainly because expectations were so elevated going in. I actually had an average season for snowfall, but the way it was distributed at the very beginning and end of the season, with endless rain in between, was excruciating. 

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Torch Tiger

Torch Tiger

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Posted
  On 10/26/2019 at 4:18 PM, Hoth said:

I didn't claim there was no data. I merely stated that DT put out a very bullish forecast last year and crashed and burned hard. I deemed last year a ratter mainly because expectations were so elevated going in. I actually had an average season for snowfall, but the way it was distributed at the very beginning and end of the season, with endless rain in between, was excruciating. 

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Snow before Thanksgiving and post- Mar. 1 needs to be put in a correct light if we are judging a winter.

It's like saying 96-97 was a real good winter with BOS near 60"? or around there. As we know it was pretty solid ratter through and through, until 4/97 and winter was over.

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weathafella

weathafella

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  On 10/26/2019 at 5:02 PM, Dr. Dews said:

Snow before Thanksgiving and post- Mar. 1 needs to be put in a correct light if we are judging a winter.

It's like saying 96-97 was a real good winter with BOS near 60"? or around there. As we know it was pretty solid ratter through and through, until 4/97 and winter was over.

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Let’s dissect the 96-97 impression.

Good warning event early in December.   Cold first 3 weeks of January with some decent snow including a nice unexpected 6-9 around  1/7,   February extremely warm and nearly snowless.  March cold and snowy as was April.  You can cherry pick all you want but it’s silly.   Because of the December snows and the epic April fools blizzard, it was not a ratter.  Fact.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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  On 10/26/2019 at 5:45 PM, weathafella said:

Let’s dissect the 96-97 impression.

Good warning event early in December.   Unexpectedly cold n January with some decent snow including a nice cue unexpected 6-9 are und 1/7,   February extremely warm and nearly snowless.  March cold and snowy as was April.  You can cherry pick all you want but it’s silly.   Because of the December snows and the epic April fools blizzard, it was not a ratter.  Fact.

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December was epic where I was. Though we got Grinched really bad...lol. Before that though we had 26" from those back to back storms and we did have a nice festive 2-4" event on New Year's Eve morning...cleared up a little before sunset and it got absolutely frigid that night.

I was pissed about that early January system. I remember we got into heavy snow briefly and I was getting excited for a positive bust but it literally shut off like a faucet after about an inch and then I saw the Patriots playoff game in Foxborough on TV later that afternoon where they had a solid 8-9" and I got pretty grumpy. Lol. 

February was pretty terrible though. Without 3/31-4/1, I probably rate it a slightly below average winter but not a ratter.

It was definitely frustrating though from about mid January until early March. We had a pretty good icing event in mid February though after a few inches of snow on the front end. Prob about a third inch of accretion. It was a decent amount. I went up to Sunday River the next day and they had absolutely epic snow pack up there. Prob 4+ feet on the level once we hit North Waterford to Bethel Maine...huge gradient too, they had bare ground around Portland...they hadn't seen the sustained icing that ORH did the previous day. 

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Torch Tiger

Torch Tiger

Posted
Posted
  On 10/26/2019 at 5:45 PM, weathafella said:

Let’s dissect the 96-97 impression.

Good warning event early in December.   Cold first 3 weeks of January with some decent snow including a nice unexpected 6-9 around  1/7,   February extremely warm and nearly snowless.  March cold and snowy as was April.  You can cherry pick all you want but it’s silly.   Because of the December snows and the epic April fools blizzard, it was not a ratter.  Fact.

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Where I was in NH, it was a ratter. I honestly forget the specifics for sne

Edit, Will to the rescue

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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  On 10/26/2019 at 6:20 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Oh I misread...I thought you were disagreeing with ray that it was a great winter up there...but you were actually agreeing with him that it wasn't a 2001-2002 by saying "it wasn't at all"

 

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I will always be a little bitter about last season...one of my top analogs was 1968-1969, as the MEI was very low that year, too. Snow stake records, etc. Had I not missed the dearth of blocking, I would have nailed it....but I didn't, and I whiffed.

 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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  On 10/26/2019 at 9:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will always be a little bitter about last season...one of my top analogs was 1968-1969, as the MEI was very low that year, too. Snow stake records, etc. Had I not missed the dearth of blocking, I would have nailed it....but I didn't, and I whiffed.

 

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Did I beat you? I forget 

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512high

512high

Posted
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  On 10/26/2019 at 9:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will always be a little bitter about last season...one of my top analogs was 1968-1969, as the MEI was very low that year, too. Snow stake records, etc. Had I not missed the dearth of blocking, I would have nailed it....but I didn't, and I whiffed.

 

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Ray, when do you give your final thoughts for the upcoming season , in a few weeks? And zero from Isotherm? If I am correct is he most active on New York forum? 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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  On 10/26/2019 at 9:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will always be a little bitter about last season...one of my top analogs was 1968-1969, as the MEI was very low that year, too. Snow stake records, etc. Had I not missed the dearth of blocking, I would have nailed it....but I didn't, and I whiffed.

 

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Yeah last winter’s mountain snowstakes pretty much paralleled your 68-69 analog and even passed its snowpack at times.  Most of the winter though the only year with a higher depth was 68-69.  It was a solid analog, IMO.  Just missed a bit to the NW.

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