Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

New UKMET Glosea5 is out today. Looks a bit nina-ish. Weak -EPO, -PNA, +NAO se ridge. 

Def a bit of a Nina look....Tip is going to be singing the geopotential gradient blues if that verifies. Look at that meat grinder east of Maine.

[CoastalWx]

I'll take that. Playing with dumbfoundation there, but there's some convergence near Maine to keep the cold locked in. I need to look at the euro seasonal. 

[OSUmetstud]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def a bit of a Nina look....Tip is going to be singing the geopotential gradient blues if that verifies. Look at that meat grinder east of Maine.

Yeah im not super keen on that look, but maybe it works out. Looks like last feb out here. Cold and dry. 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll take that. Playing with dumbfoundation there, but there's some convergence near Maine to keep the cold locked in. I need to look at the euro seasonal. 

Yep, that's really a similar look to Dec 2007....the +NAO vortex was so big it encroached into New Foundland and Quebec so we got these stout highs there that caused all the would-be lakes cutters to run into a brick wall.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, that's really a similar look to Dec 2007....the +NAO vortex was so big it encroached into New Foundland and Quebec so we got these stout highs there that caused all the would-be lakes cutters to run into a brick wall.

 

 

1993-1994 was like that... 

It was either a +NAO of such extraordinary magnitude, or... perhaps one that was like a "west-based +NAO", either way, we ended up with NW flow bone rattling cold, in between lots of systems entering confluence ending up shredded overrunning affairs.  

I guess in this sense,... the NAO can giveth in multiple ways huh

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def a bit of a Nina look....Tip is going to be singing the geopotential gradient blues if that verifies. Look at that meat grinder east of Maine.

Mm ... I'd argue that's the new paradigm actually.. .regardless of ENSO.  There is evidence of expanded Hadley cell over the extra-seasonal time spans and it's increasing said gradient regardless - I'm sure it's possible it won't be that way ALL the time, but.. the balance of the rest state is one featuring enhanced subtropical to Ferral latitude isohypsotic slope.

Which again... folks may very well observe ENSO as less coupled to the atmosphere in present eras moving foward because of that, for SD events that fall below a certain magnitude.  I keep pointing this out... but, few seem to acknowledge it before resuming the same mantra and reliance.  But last year ... it took until mid to late February ( as NCEP noted ) for the atmosphere to demonstrate any response/coupling to the state of the NINO fields.  It's one of the reasons so may forecasts busted from the private/novice sector - because those linear reliance' are all f'ed up now; the correlations don't work as well, when they are related to the previous 100 years, when the last 20 years of which are hockey-sticking.    

This isn't just superficially plausible jargon - it's physically sound and being noted by agencies.   But, if we want to just blink twice like robots stuck in 'does not compute' feed-back loop and fall right back into that +5/-5 ENSO stuff... okay.  It's just that after all, this season outlook stuff is speculative - it's nice for the sake of cogency in my mind if folks actually begin to acknowledge this possibility.  Even if we want to say, I am not including for now but it is possible - something. 

I think there is nothing wrong with forecasting SSTs mimicking a weak warm signal, while the atmosphere behaves like a La Nada?   ... I guess we'll let the chips fall where they may... But, that means that other factors ( like the EPO/AO/NAO arc) may be more representative.  It's fascinating stuff - 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 10/10/2019 at 6:38 AM, weathafella said:

Luke shook?

As long as I can see this look I’m not too worried...

 

 

 

That is really cool ..

Look at the arc in the central/eastern Atlantic.. .That is the aftermath/turbulent mixing result of Lorenzo ...  

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll take that. Playing with dumbfoundation there, but there's some convergence near Maine to keep the cold locked in. I need to look at the euro seasonal. 

If there's better luck than last year then it'll work out but you're playing with fire there. 

And I guess the Modoki Nino is pretty much useless given the Nina looking pattern the last 2 seasons. ENSO conditions, unless extreme, are becoming less relevant as the world warms. 

[dryslot]

Oh god would i sign up for another Dec 2007, 41.5" of snow fell that winter in December and sits at #3 all time with 137.8" for the season.

[tamarack]

19 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Oh god would i sign up for another Dec 2007, 41.5" of snow fell that winter in December and sits at #3 all time with 137.8" for the season.

Fourth place for my 46.5 Maine winters with 142.3", and 1-3 are all in Fort Kent.  Biggest event was a modest 12.5" but so, so many events.  Last winter tried to duplicate but slid a few dozen miles north so we had lots of mix.  In any case, weak ENSO has generally been nice to the foothills.

[dryslot]

Just now, tamarack said:

Fourth place for my 46.5 Maine winters with 142.3", and 1-3 are all in Fort Kent.  Biggest event was a modest 12.5" but so, so many events.  Last winter tried to duplicate but slid a few dozen miles north so we had lots of mix.  In any case, weak ENSO has generally been nice to the foothills.

30 measurable events here that winter with 14" being the highest but 11 of those fell in the 6-10" range that season.

[tunafish]

50 minutes ago, dryslot said:

30 measurable events here that winter with 14" being the highest but 11 of those fell in the 6-10" range that season.

07-08 was my fourth winter in ME, and my first in PWM.  I wasn't measuring at that point but I remember it being an awesome winter.  >100" in PWM I believe.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tunafish said:

07-08 was my fourth winter in ME, and my first in PWM.  I wasn't measuring at that point but I remember it being an awesome winter.  >100" in PWM I believe.

Dam close, It was 103"..................

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That is really cool ..

Look at the arc in the central/eastern Atlantic.. .That is the aftermath/turbulent mixing result of Lorenzo ...  

Yea, and Dorian. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

30 measurable events here that winter with 14" being the highest but 11 of those fell in the 6-10" range that season.

Last winter's 14 events of 3"+ was my 2nd most at my current home.  2007-08 had 21.  Average is 9.8 (206 in 21 winters.)

[Snowy Hibbo]

G’day everyone.

I would just like to present my preliminary seasonal outlook for the Northern Hemisphere, which includes driver discussion and analysis for patterns that run downstream to New England.

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/10/12/october-preliminary-2019-20-winter-outlook/

1. Snow & Ice conditions good for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK.
2. MJO largely good for European and UK snowfall, perhaps less so later in winter. Similar for Eastern US and Japan.
3. Oceanic ENSO good for Japan, Southwest US and Eastern US.
4. -AAM good for Europe, Eastern US and Japan, less strong later in winter.
5. Stratospheric conditions favourable for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK.
6. Solar minimum favourable for more snowfall for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK.
7. Atlantic favourable for a snowy UK winter and colder Europe.
8. QBO favourable for Eastern US, UK and Europe.
9. North Pacific favourable for Eastern US, less so for PNW.

“The Eastern US looks like it is set to have a good season as well, focused from the Central US early in the season, but more open to Nor’easters later in the season.“

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/11/2019 at 12:43 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm ... I'd argue that's the new paradigm actually.. .regardless of ENSO.  There is evidence of expanded Hadley cell over the extra-seasonal time spans and it's increasing said gradient regardless - I'm sure it's possible it won't be that way ALL the time, but.. the balance of the rest state is one featuring enhanced subtropical to Ferral latitude isohypsotic slope.

Which again... folks may very well observe ENSO as less coupled to the atmosphere in present eras moving foward because of that, for SD events that fall below a certain magnitude.  I keep pointing this out... but, few seem to acknowledge it before resuming the same mantra and reliance.  But last year ... it took until mid to late February ( as NCEP noted ) for the atmosphere to demonstrate any response/coupling to the state of the NINO fields.  It's one of the reasons so may forecasts busted from the private/novice sector - because those linear reliance' are all f'ed up now; the correlations don't work as well, when they are related to the previous 100 years, when the last 20 years of which are hockey-sticking.    

This isn't just superficially plausible jargon - it's physically sound and being noted by agencies.   But, if we want to just blink twice like robots stuck in 'does not compute' feed-back loop and fall right back into that +5/-5 ENSO stuff... okay.  It's just that after all, this season outlook stuff is speculative - it's nice for the sake of cogency in my mind if folks actually begin to acknowledge this possibility.  Even if we want to say, I am not including for now but it is possible - something. 

I think there is nothing wrong with forecasting SSTs mimicking a weak warm signal, while the atmosphere behaves like a La Nada?   ... I guess we'll let the chips fall where they may... But, that means that other factors ( like the EPO/AO/NAO arc) may be more representative.  It's fascinating stuff - 

How do you explain 2004 and 2014 acting like "typical" weak el nino events?

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 10/11/2019 at 2:35 PM, dryslot said:

Oh god would i sign up for another Dec 2007, 41.5" of snow fell that winter in December and sits at #3 all time with 137.8" for the season.

I would be fine with 07-08 in my hood. Probably 85-90" here. I had 73.5" in Wilmington...

[raindancewx]

I'm starting to think the PDO may drive the pattern this year. The October split so far, very hot SE, very cold NW, is consistent with a -PDO in winter if you look at the correlation map I posted in the ENSO thread. The zones that are most correlated are currently the hottest/coldest so far. The cold ring forming by the Alaskan coast surrounding the warm tongue east of Japan is the canonical -PDO look. Really aren't any recent El Ninos (27.0C+ Nino 3.4) regimes with a -PDO, but it has happened.

Nino 1.2 is under 20.0C for October to date on the weeklies (19.85C). In 18 <20.0C Nino 1.2 Octobers, 17/18 the PDO finished below 0 on average from Nov-Apr, and the highest value was in 2005-06 at +0.14. Generally speaking, a -PDO favors a cold NW, a neutral PDO favors a cold Central, and a positive PDO favors a cold SE in winter.  In 2017, the weeklies were ~19.5C for October in Nino 1.2, but the monthly data came in at 20.2C. So this may all be moot anyway, since I base stuff off the monthlies.

Blending the PDO in Mar-Aug with Nino 1.2 SSTs in October is highly predictive, and the best match for that looks to be 1996/1988 averaged together for the PDO, for -0.1 for Nov-Apr.  That's for a 20.0C October Nino 1.2 after a +0.83 Mar-Aug PDO.

If the PDO hadn't been +0.8 in Mar-Aug, I think the -0.5 PDO depicted below for a 20.0C Nino 1.2 in October would be about right. When the PDO is warm mid-year, and then Nino 1.2 is very cold in October, you look for Nov-Apr to be more negative generally (so in 2017-18, with the cold Nino 1.2, we went from +0.6 Mar-Aug to +0.3 for Nov-Apr).

[CoastalWx]

On 10/11/2019 at 11:45 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Def a bit of a Nina look....Tip is going to be singing the geopotential gradient blues if that verifies. Look at that meat grinder east of Maine.

Euro seasonal looks like what Nick posted as well.

[Typhoon Tip]

On 10/15/2019 at 6:08 AM, CoastalWx said:

Euro seasonal looks like what Nick posted as well.

Just curious other's opinions ... is that similar to 1993-1994?   

I remember that season's core cold months as crushingly +NAO much of the time... Well, I'm not sure if it was "crushing" in terms of magnitude, or if it was circumstantially unusual placement of anomalies?? 

But either way, the result was that the vortex over NE Canada/D. Straight seemed to grow so magnificently that it backed SW and engulfed the Lakes-OV and NE regions, and we "suffered"/"rejoiced" ( depending on one's preference) for it from roughly Christmas through early February.  Modified polar-arctic air mass was only interrupted by overrunning events.  It wasn't a bad scenario to be in ... It created interesting consequences.  For one, OES became an actual seasonal total factor along the coast/shore zones... I think SW suburbs of Boston actually went upper 90's totals and Logan did fantastic that year.  I think we were 70s to 80s in totals out my way in Acton/Middlesex Co.

Anyway, the idea there is that confluence was a near permanent fixture from the N. Lakes over Ontario, where the vortex'es SW arc was seemingly perpetually impinging upon the sub-polar jet arriving from the MS Valley...It tended to shear out systems but not before vestigial overrunning shredded IP/snow events. It was a 4-8" blitz criege that lasted about 8 weeks. Seemed every 3 days... 5.3"  I'm pretty sure Jerry and Steve have reminisced that season in abundance. Heh. 

Also, what's the skill on these various sources/seasonal outlooks?  Like, is Euro better than Ukment better than GONAPS better than Cantmodelanian better than GoFurSelf ...?   I don't have a lot of faith in those types of things.  I personally still feel that this year will be more EPO ( AO/NAO ) controlled for temperature distribution, and that when modulation occurs back warmer those episodes might be rather impressive, if ephemeral, because of the Hadley Cell invasion into the mid latitudes stuff.  In other words, gradient is the new life but let's not go where there be dragons

[weathafella]

13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just curious other's opinions ... is that similar to 1993-1994?   

I remember that season's core cold months as crushingly +NAO much of the time... Well, I'm not sure if it was "crushing" in terms of magnitude, or if it was circumstantially unusual placement of anomalies?? 

But either way, the result was that the vortex over NE Canada/D. Straight seemed to grow so magnificently that it backed SW and engulfed the Lakes-OV and NE regions, and we "suffered"/"rejoiced" ( depending on one's preference) for it from roughly Christmas through early February.  Modified polar-arctic air mass was only interrupted by overrunning events.  It wasn't a bad scenario to be in ... It created interesting consequences.  For one, OES became an actual seasonal total factor along the coast/shore zones... I think SW suburbs of Boston actually went upper 90's totals and Logan did fantastic that year.  I think we were 70s to 80s in totals out my way in Acton/Middlesex Co.

Anyway, the idea there is that confluence was a near permanent fixture from the N. Lakes over Ontario, where the vortex'es SW arc was seemingly perpetually impinging upon the sub-polar jet arriving from the MS Valley...It tended to shear out systems but not before vestigial overrunning shredded IP/snow events. It was a 4-8" blitz criege that lasted about 8 weeks. Seemed every 3 days... 5.3"  I'm pretty sure Jerry and Steve have reminisced that season in abundance. Heh. 

Also, what's the skill on these various sources/seasonal outlooks?  Like, is Euro better than Ukment better than GONAPS better than Cantmodelanian better than GoFurSelf ...?   I don't have a lot of faith in those types of things.  I personally still feel that this year will be more EPO ( AO/NAO ) controlled for temperature distribution, and that when modulation occurs back warmer those episodes might be rather impressive, if ephemeral, because of the Hadley Cell invasion into the mid latitudes stuff.  In other words, gradient is the new life but let's not go where there be dragons

Yes please!

[Typhoon Tip]

On 10/14/2019 at 9:22 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How do you explain 2004 and 2014 acting like "typical" weak el nino events?

Ah I dunno ... maybe because there are zero, 1::1 cause of/and effect relationships in a three dimensional fluid medium that is physically influenced by uncountable factors?  Thus, one that is by definition interspersed by moments of spontaneity borne of fractals --> giving rise at times to faux emerging comparable events, at other times ... seemingly well behaved ?  You know, chaos theory -  

That would be my first guess.  Also, these larger planet-scaled observed(ing) changes that are becoming ever more coherent, may also not be a readily observable at all times in the past - when in a changing frequency, that immediately infers that whatever is one is looking for would/might be harder when peering backward along that slope.    

Also, it is not,  "how do you explain"   ?  This isn't just me making supposition ( just in case ).  I'm actually thrilled that these concerns I began voicing ten years ago, are now being papered and peer reviewed and noted at/among agencies, unaffiliated to me, out there in the greater ambit of those that actually matter.  It shows I was ahead of the game and formulated cogent ideas on the direction of the climate, a long while ago.  Heh. It kind of reminds me of that scene on the dock in "Jaws" 1975.  Dr. Hooper was trying to explain over the din of the yoke's that they probably did not actually catch the man-eating Carcharias Carcharodon of their exulted hootin' and hollerin.'  He's suddenly finds himself in a scenario where he has to back slowly away from their vitriol as he mutters, "... And it's not something I wanna lose my life over..."    Threatening folks with reduction of winter will get one thrown into a harbor .. 

I'm being tongue-in-cheek there of course.. but it does seem to piss people off... I mean I don't even think it is directed at me, personally.  See... we run our own brand of climate denial in here ( I've noticed). Depending upon the chosen contexts we are open to engage in the suggestion of it, and may even willingly speak in dire terms ... Until dimming the prospects of winter is detected in distant orbit. Look out. As tho to accept that means accepting it may dwindle snow/and/or winter-related drama and allure in general ...

I got news for us all. It will.   It's a matter of time.  Oh the usual defensive mantra immediate precipitates "..yeah, but not in our life-time," or that cherry picked study that convincingly sounds like its all a 100 years off.  Whatever. That may be true - sort of. But it's sorta not, too. Because the expanded Hadley Cell stuff, and quickening flow rates, all of that.. is not just me?  It has been noted by NCEP, and is also empirical too ...and is a way in which CC is changing things within our lifetime.  Hello - 

Fearing sounding like a hypocrite... I do personally think that we can get punishingly "good" winters for an interim ... as well, "bad" winters, both occurring in their own rites.  And that mid latitudes losing winters thru CC is an unknown numbers of years off, if not decade(s)..  But, the impetus there is who knows when synergistic thresholds - or those that are kind of forced to happen in jolts do to competing forcing coming into constructive interference and so forth .. - may "snap" a region or greater into new paradigms.  Or if it just gradually sneaks up and suddenly Boston puts up it's first 0" snow year and everyone cobbles together this brilliant master work explaining - of course - why it could have happened anyway, that in reality is a bargaining ploy.  We are already seeing winters be affected/effected though.

[OSUmetstud]

On 10/16/2019 at 10:49 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Just curious other's opinions ... is that similar to 1993-1994?   

I remember that season's core cold months as crushingly +NAO much of the time... Well, I'm not sure if it was "crushing" in terms of magnitude, or if it was circumstantially unusual placement of anomalies?? 

But either way, the result was that the vortex over NE Canada/D. Straight seemed to grow so magnificently that it backed SW and engulfed the Lakes-OV and NE regions, and we "suffered"/"rejoiced" ( depending on one's preference) for it from roughly Christmas through early February.  Modified polar-arctic air mass was only interrupted by overrunning events.  It wasn't a bad scenario to be in ... It created interesting consequences.  For one, OES became an actual seasonal total factor along the coast/shore zones... I think SW suburbs of Boston actually went upper 90's totals and Logan did fantastic that year.  I think we were 70s to 80s in totals out my way in Acton/Middlesex Co.

Anyway, the idea there is that confluence was a near permanent fixture from the N. Lakes over Ontario, where the vortex'es SW arc was seemingly perpetually impinging upon the sub-polar jet arriving from the MS Valley...It tended to shear out systems but not before vestigial overrunning shredded IP/snow events. It was a 4-8" blitz criege that lasted about 8 weeks. Seemed every 3 days... 5.3"  I'm pretty sure Jerry and Steve have reminisced that season in abundance. Heh. 

Also, what's the skill on these various sources/seasonal outlooks?  Like, is Euro better than Ukment better than GONAPS better than Cantmodelanian better than GoFurSelf ...?   I don't have a lot of faith in those types of things.  I personally still feel that this year will be more EPO ( AO/NAO ) controlled for temperature distribution, and that when modulation occurs back warmer those episodes might be rather impressive, if ephemeral, because of the Hadley Cell invasion into the mid latitudes stuff.  In other words, gradient is the new life but let's not go where there be dragons

Only in the sense that is "gradient" or compressed flow pattern. Youll never see those rediculous anomalies on a seasonal model but theres large enough differences in the epo region to keep the cold air from invading Canada. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Only in the sense that is "gradient" or compressed flow pattern. Youll never see those rediculous anomalies on a seasonal model but theres large enough differences in the epo region to keep the cold air from invading Canada. 

 

 

This particular chart looks like a repro of the PNAP base-line pattern.  ( perennial north-american pattern ). 

It's basically just a mass-balanced product, reflecting the winds' bowing over the terrain of the west and then coupled attempting in the east -

So perhaps the ECM "series"  ( not sure how this is derived ) just happens to mimic that - that'd be amazing.  Otherwise, "if" it's just averaging a blizzard ensemble looks than it becomes less than meaningfully predictive to me.  But again ...how is this product derived ?    Funny, with ensembles there's that rub - one of them may be exactly right. 

Also, is there a polar stereographic depiction from the Euro seasonal?

 

[OSUmetstud]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This particular chart looks like a repro of the PNAP base-line pattern.  ( perennial north-american pattern ). 

It's basically just a mass-balanced product, reflecting the winds' bowing over the terrain of the west and then coupled attempting in the east -

So perhaps the ECM "series"  ( not sure how this is derived ) just happens to mimic that - that'd be amazing.  Otherwise, "if" it's just averaging a blizzard ensemble looks than it becomes less than meaningfully predictive to me.  But again ...how is this product derived ?    Funny, with ensembles there's that rub - one of them may be exactly right. 

Also, is there a polar stereographic depiction from the Euro seasonal?

 

 

[OSUmetstud]

System5_guide.pdf

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

 

That's a cold look for Great Lakes and Plains.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a cold look for Great Lakes and Plains.

I dont think its toasty here....initial dump is west, like last year, but I bet we see bit better luck this go around.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah I dunno ... maybe because there are zero, 1::1 cause of/and effect relationships in a three dimensional fluid medium that is physically influenced by uncountable factors?  Thus, one that is by definition interspersed by moments of spontaneity borne of fractals --> giving rise at times to faux emerging comparable events, at other times ... seemingly well behaved ?  You know, chaos theory -  

That would be my first guess.  Also, these larger planet-scaled observed(ing) changes that are becoming ever more coherent, may also not be a readily observable at all times in the past - when in a changing frequency, that immediately infers that whatever is one is looking for would/might be harder when peering backward along that slope.    

Also, it is not,  "how do you explain"   ?  This isn't just me making supposition ( just in case ).  I'm actually thrilled that these concerns I began voicing ten years ago, are now being papered and peer reviewed and noted at/among agencies, unaffiliated to me, out there in the greater ambit of those that actually matter.  It shows I was ahead of the game and formulated cogent ideas on the direction of the climate, a long while ago.  Heh. It kind of reminds me of that scene on the dock in "Jaws" 1975.  Dr. Hooper was trying to explain over the din of the yoke's that they probably did not actually catch the man-eating Carcharias Carcharodon of their exulted hootin' and hollerin.'  He's suddenly finds himself in a scenario where he has to back slowly away from their vitriol as he mutters, "... And it's not something I wanna lose my life over..."    Threatening folks with reduction of winter will get one thrown into a harbor .. 

I'm being tongue-in-cheek there of course.. but it does seem to piss people off... I mean I don't even think it is directed at me, personally.  See... we run our own brand of climate denial in here ( I've noticed). Depending upon the chosen contexts we are open to engage in the suggestion of it, and may even willingly speak in dire terms ... Until dimming the prospects of winter is detected in distant orbit. Look out. As tho to accept that means accepting it may dwindle snow/and/or winter-related drama and allure in general ...

I got news for us all. It will.   It's a matter of time.  Oh the usual defensive mantra immediate precipitates "..yeah, but not in our life-time," or that cherry picked study that convincingly sounds like its all a 100 years off.  Whatever. That may be true - sort of. But it's sorta not, too. Because the expanded Hadley Cell stuff, and quickening flow rates, all of that.. is not just me?  It has been noted by NCEP, and is also empirical too ...and is a way in which CC is changing things within our lifetime.  Hello - 

Fearing sounding like a hypocrite... I do personally think that we can get punishingly "good" winters for an interim ... as well, "bad" winters, both occurring in their own rites.  And that mid latitudes losing winters thru CC is an unknown numbers of years off, if not decade(s)..  But, the impetus there is who knows when synergistic thresholds - or those that are kind of forced to happen in jolts do to competing forcing coming into constructive interference and so forth .. - may "snap" a region or greater into new paradigms.  Or if it just gradually sneaks up and suddenly Boston puts up it's first 0" snow year and everyone cobbles together this brilliant master work explaining - of course - why it could have happened anyway, that in reality is a bargaining ploy.  We are already seeing winters be affected/effected though.

Thanks, John.

I'm honestly considering all of this stuff much more than I have in the past. Healthy dose of humility last year has served me well.