Winter 2019-2020 Discussion

[SJonesWX]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That winter sucked.

suppression depression

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

suppression depression

After 01/20 that winter, We were toast.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Seems like Will's map suggests my area was screwed the most.

Lol you had more than Ryan in CCT. The Dec 09 blizzard was epic with drifts. 

[JC-CT]

28 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Seems like Will's map suggests my area was screwed the most.

You have been perpetually screwed for so long, they should almost just start statistically accounting for it.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol you had more than Ryan in CCT. The Dec 09 blizzard was epic with drifts. 

I said he was near average, but if we got very specific, he was probably slightly above average snowfall that season....and yes, mostly on the strength of the Dec '09 storm. But they also got some decent snow in the Feb 9-10 bust...like 6-8".

[SouthCoastMA]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, you were pretty close to average snowfall....Ray's current area was well below average.

Speaking of which. We miss those maps. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Speaking of which. We miss those maps. 

I always get the itch to start them back up again, but then life gets in the way compared to my bachelor pad days . They are time consuming to make, but I do like having them as a reference to how a particular season played out. If I have some free time one day, I may start trying to catch up on the 8 seasons that I am behind.

I'm actually really bummed that I lost my most recent map...the 2010-2011 winter. I was hoping someone on here saved it, but so far no luck. In the threads that it was posted in, I had used imagehosting links which are now defunct and I had created that one on a laptop that died years ago and foolishly didn't save it to my PC or newer laptop.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, you were pretty close to average snowfall....Ray's current area was well below average.

Oh yeah compared to average.  I meant a decent winter, no.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Seems like Will's map suggests my area was screwed the most.

The map doesn't extend to northern Maine, and I'd offer that "most" prize to CAR.  It wasn't their least snowy winter, just 3rd worst and lowest since 1961-62, but the clincher to me is that they had 7" less than BWI.  Next closest those two got was 95-96 when BWI had 57% of CAR's snowfall, compared to 110% in 09-10.  Then there's temperatures - JFM averaged 24.98, which is 3.67° above 2nd mildest.  To get 3.67° less mild than #2 takes one all the way to 20th mildest.  Don't know how many SDs above the rest that JFM 2010 sits, but it's quite the span.

[#NoPoles]

The only way this conversation could have been more enjoyable...that it takes place live, in one night, at a g2g, while model watching an impending storm, with hot wings, and ginxy getting us free cake

[CoastalWx]

09-10 sucked in the new climo regime, but I’ll take two double digits storms if this were 1988.

[Cold Miser]

The worlds greatest weather hype machine is out:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/farmers-almanac-winter-snow-cold-frigid-temperatures#

Quote

The publication claims that 2020 will get off to a busy start in the eastern half of the country as "copious amounts" of snow, rain, sleet and ice may fall in the time frame between Jan. 4 - Jan. 7 and Jan. 12- Jan. 15, along with "strong and gusty winds."

Copious amounts of something coming our way.

[dryslot]

20 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

The worlds greatest weather hype machine is out:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/farmers-almanac-winter-snow-cold-frigid-temperatures#

Copious amounts of something coming our way.

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

09-10 sucked in the new climo regime, but I’ll take two double digits storms if this were 1988.

If I didn't know how close we were to getting so much more, then that winter wouldn't have been too bad. It was close to average snow here. 

Yeah, rewind to 1988 when you didn't know how much Baltimore was getting each storm and couldn't see computer models and the winter probably gets an average rating for most of SNE...sans maybe NE MA and the central CT valley. 

[CoastalWx]

8 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

If I didn't know how close we were to getting so much more, then that winter wouldn't have been too bad. It was close to average snow here. 

Yeah, rewind to 1988 when you didn't know how much Baltimore was getting each storm and couldn't see computer models and the winter probably gets an average rating for most of SNE...sans maybe NE MA and the central CT valley. 

Yeah there is definitely that side too. I was just coming at it more from the standpoint of how the lack of large events stood out at that time. Perhaps using 1991 would be a better year after that dearth of large snowstorms. My coworker said in Woburn he went in between 1984-1992 without a storm more than 12". Only one storm in early Jan 87 gave 12" on the button. One came close in 1988. Still, think about that. We get those at least once a year now practically.  

So when the T-blizz's of the world start to complain when we regress, one phrase should stick into their minds. We tried to tell them.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah there is definitely that side too. I was just coming at it more from the standpoint of how the lack of large events stood out at that time. Perhaps using 1991 would be a better year after that dearth of large snowstorms. My coworker said in Woburn he went in between 1984-1992 without a storm more than 12". Only one storm in early Jan 87 gave 12" on the button. One came close in 1988. Still, think about that. We get those at least once a year now practically.  

So when the T-blizz's of the world start to complain when we regress, one phrase should stick into their minds. We tried to tell them.

 

 

Logan airport went over 10 years without a 12" snowstorm. They had over a foot in the Feb '83 storm and then failed to get it again until the March '93 superstorm. 

They had some close calls in between but never hit 12". 

Then ORH went 4 consecutive years without a 10" storm from '88-89 through '91-'92. Only time that ever happened on record. 

 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Logan airport went over 10 years without a 12" snowstorm. They had over a foot in the Feb '83 storm and then failed to get it again until the March '93 superstorm. 

They had some close calls in between but never hit 12". 

Then ORH went 4 consecutive years without a 10" storm from '88-89 through '91-'92. Only time that ever happened on record. 

 

Those stats are hard to comprehend, but it happened. Who knows, maybe it never gets that bad in our lifetime....but ride the weenie express now. You never know when it derails.

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Those stats are hard to comprehend, but it happened. Who knows, maybe it never gets that bad in our lifetime....but ride the weenie express now. You never know when it derails.

Yes they are. It's why I think people who haven't actually experienced a stretch like that won't truly understand what we're talking about until they do. Pretty much anyone born after 1985 or 1986 probably wouldn't remember...maybe a young weenie born around then would remember the early 1990s before the tide turned...but otherwise, they are used to never going too long without a huge event or blockbuster winter. 

Its even more spoiled for anyone born post-1994 or so...they wouldn't even remember the relatively dud winters of the late 1990s. 

 

[dryslot]

Some good runs in the 60's and early 70's, But those 80's, Ha.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Some good runs in the 60's and early 70's, But those 80's, Ha.

Between 1955-56 and 1971-72, ORH basically had zero years below average snowfall...they had one year (I think 64-65) where they had 62.8", so slightly below normal but I consider that normal when it's only like 10% below average. 

That period was amazing for its consistency. There were only maybe 3 or 4 winters out of that 17 that I would classify as "blockbuster"...it was just consistently solid. Normal or above normal with a lot of cold. Very cold those years. 

Then the early to mid 1970s flipped the script until we returned to epic cold and snow for a couple winters in '76-'77. 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Between 1955-56 and 1971-72, ORH basically had zero years below average snowfall...they had one year (I think 64-65) where they had 62.8", so slightly below normal but I consider that normal when it's only like 10% below average. 

That period was amazing for its consistency. There were only maybe 3 or 4 winters out of that 17 that I would classify as "blockbuster"...it was just consistently solid. Normal or above normal with a lot of cold. Very cold those years. 

Then the early to mid 1970s flipped the script until we returned to epic cold and snow for a couple winters in '76-'77. 

We were on the outside of the blizzard of 78 here, That's why the one we had in 2015 topped 78 as far as blizzards go with 28.5" as opposed to 12", For here, Feb 22-28, 1969 is #1 with 36" in that 6 day period in that retro storm.

[PowderBeard]

Got a firewood moisture meter yesterday and got my winter stoke going. Have about 3.5 cords <20% moisture for our new Jotul F600. However much of the red oak is still high teens and I would like to see it 15% or lower. Have another 1.5-2 cords of red oak seasoning for next winter that is already 20-22%. Pretty amazing it is all from gypsy moth damage and I only started collecting last fall. Still a ton more to take down around the yard and town. 

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

09-10 sucked in the new climo regime, but I’ll take two double digits storms if this were 1988.

We had but one in 09-10, and I doubt you would want anything like it - 10.7" of 4:1 mashed potatoes, in globs so wet they did not accumulate on even the thickest branches but merely spattered to the ground.  And that stuff was followed immediately by 1.1" of 34-35° RA (during NYC's snowicane - so I DID compare there) that turned the mess into 7" of 2.5-to-1 horror.  And channeling Will, I was not comparing that storm to Baltimore, but with how close it was to what had occurred 41 years earlier.  Exact same dates, another 4-day (plus) storm, but 3-5° lower temps during the earlier event meant 40"+ powder.

Doubt we'll see another retro-bomb as strong and persistent, and 6 of the following 9 winters have brought 100" or more.

[ORH_wxman]

Models continue to go more neutral on ENSO as we get closer. EuroSIPs and seasonal did too...so I'm getting increasingly more confident that we will be La Nada (neutral) this winter. Still a small chance we go weak Nino, but it's becoming more of a long shot. Subsurface looks weak...still some warmth to the west but the central and eastern areas are getting cooler in the subsurface. That's probably good though...even if we're neutral, we'd want the higher anomalies out west...maybe encourage dateline convection.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 8/27/2019 at 10:27 AM, JC-CT said:

You have been perpetually screwed for so long, they should almost just start statistically accounting for it.

Well ... yet another school, if it's been that long and persistent, it should be climate norm fixing and the user should have grown accustomed, sans any expectations otherwise.  Finally, after said user moves away to a far away land the region they've given up on and abandons returns to its previous dynamic - ...until such time as a return for a visit of course.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Models continue to go more neutral on ENSO as we get closer. EuroSIPs and seasonal did too...so I'm getting increasingly more confident that we will be La Nada (neutral) this winter. Still a small chance we go weak Nino, but it's becoming more of a long shot. Subsurface looks weak...still some warmth to the west but the central and eastern areas are getting cooler in the subsurface. That's probably good though...even if we're neutral, we'd want the higher anomalies out west...maybe encourage dateline convection.

 

 

Good ... 

Harv and I compared notes years ago and came to the same conclusion that the best winters in either ENSO regime are non-trustworthy inconsistent outliers; we are far better off taking our chances in the aggregate which showed a bias skewed snow/cold-positive during neutral ENSO years.  And by neutral we mean (+)(-) .5 SD

That, combined with super set of longer termed teleconnectors flagging increasing odds for -EPO's ... that's probably the ball game. 

It's probably also why the Farmer's Almanac has suddenly began showing better accuracy in the last two decades because their "top secret method?"  They simply started using the same shit ... not whatever leaped to suppositional guess work mind base upon the squirrel testicle method they were using before...  In any case ... if anyone gives a ratz left one ..they've gone and lit up mass-media headlines with a cryo dystopia for this year. Just sayn'

Too bad that's not the whole score, however.   

Sorry - but I am highly confident in the disruption of climate wind patterning and R-wave configuration tendencies as those changes are rooted in climate change, and expansion of the Hadely Cell into the Ferrel latitudes.   I began harping about this five or so years ago, when I personally noticed these wind anomaly oddities...  They seem to pervasively rule cold season base-lines in either warm or cool ENSOs... and well.. it turns out I wasn't the only one suspecting this...blah blah.

But the point is, that changes the landscape a little compared to say ... 50 years ago.  If were up to the climate then, we'd be golden with a nadir solar on top of the AMO/PDO cycles, on top of a neutral enso...  my god.  Don't know about all that mapped over big ballz Hadley disruption though -

Still, seein' as GW isn't going anywhere ... I think I'd rather have the former in play - at least ya got a chance that way..   Fast flow and quick cold warm interludes and active storm tracks...  

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Good ... 

Harv and I compared notes years ago and came to the same conclusion that the best winters in either ENSO regime are non-trustworthy inconsistent outliers; we are far better off taking our chances in the aggregate which showed a bias skewed snow/cold-positive during neutral ENSO years.  

That, combined with super set of longer termed teleconnectors flagging increasing odds for -EPO's ... that's probably the ball game. 

It's probably also why the Farmer's Almanac has suddenly began showing better accuracy in the last two decades because their "top secret?"  They started using this shit and not whatever suppositional guess work base upon squirrel testicles they were using before...  In any case ... if anyone gives a ratz left one ..they've gone and lit up mass-media headlines with a cryo dystopia for this year. Just sayn'

There's some weak support for it...obviously we know how early it is and how quickly things can change.....but we've got a big warm anomaly in the GOA (positive PDO) and extending down into the adjacent north pacific. That's going to at least feed back on any ridging that tries to develop there (I won't claim it is the cause of such ridging). We've also got the best chances for warm SST anomalies in the ENSO regions out near the dateline. ENSO is weak and likely neutral, but it still probably helps on average to have that "west based" Nino look...heck, it might even be better this way than an actual El Nino because, like you said, maybe less chance for other ENSO-related factors to muck it up. We just get this weaker low-frequency backround humming that tries to force the tropical convection near the dateline....that then promotes ridging in our EPO region...which then feeds back on the big warm SST anomalies sitting there, and boom....you have that mass Siberian express pattern that gets stuck for weeks at a time.

 

Who knows what the Atlantic will do...and obviously all those shorter-period oscillations will have a large say in our snowfall prospects, but the larger scale definitely has some weak support for cold idea.

[MarkO]

Winter weather starting to make it's way into New England tomorrow night well ok, ok, I know it's MWN, but still.

Slight chance of a wintry mix after midnight. Little to no snow or ice accumulations.

[ScituateWX]

I thought I saw on twitter Eric Fisher posted the 2M temp map from the latest Euro Seasonal looked warm based on that could not see H5.  If I recall that blew chunks last year?  Everything is FWIW wondering if anyone saw H5 and what it looked like.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

I thought I saw on twitter Eric Fisher posted the 2M temp map from the latest Euro Seasonal looked warm based on that could not see H5.  If I recall that blew chunks last year?  Everything is FWIW wondering if anyone saw H5 and what it looked like.

The euro seasonal has a warm bias at the surface. So you really want to see H5...i haven't seen the September run but the August run looked pretty good aloft.