nj2va Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Beautiful summer day. Hit a low of 50 at Deep Creek this morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 6 hours ago, Vice-Regent said: Dry as bones here. We need some relief. Root for the 12z Euro. Has the heaviest rain through Wed AM over central/southern DE and coastal NJ. 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Root for the 12z Euro. Has the heaviest rain through Wed AM over central/southern DE and coastal NJ. 1-3". 18z GFS on board now too? This looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Just now, Vice-Regent said: 18z GFS on board now too? This looks promising. The latest WPC QPF is leaning that way too. Remains to be seen where the front stalls and the impact of waves moving along it. Your area should be in a good spot esp beyond Tuesday afternoon with the initial round of (severe?) convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: 18z GFS on board now too? This looks promising. Euro looks even better for your yard. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019081112/delaware/acc-total-precipitation/20190814-1100z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 LOLOLOLOLOLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 This continues (the type of soundings above) at 21z TUES/00z WED at both KMRB and KHGR, 00z WED and 03z WED at KEZF, and 00z WED at KDCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 I've been mostly offline the past few days - just now checking this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 Day 2 enhanced already - let's do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 Eh, something usually messes us up. LWX talks about cloud cover so it'll probably be that. Maybe it'll be different this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 23 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Tuesday continues to look potentially active. Mount Holly's thoughts this morning- On Tuesday, the aforementioned low pressure, associated with a decaying MCS from the source region, will push a frontal boundary into the forecast area. The exact placement of this boundary will dictate the resulting convective evolution throughout the day Tuesday, nevertheless the environment is likely to be favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. Being that this event will be driven by primarily by mesoscale processes, details are still a bit unclear at this range, however all severe weather modes (including damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail) will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Deep layer shear is forecast to be in the 35-40 kt range with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. Some guidance has impressive low-level wind shear profiles and low-level curvature to the hodographs for this time of year. Precipitable water values will be high as well (well over 2") so flash flooding will be a threat where the heaviest storms begin to train over the same areas. I can tell you exactly where that boundary will not be placed... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: I can tell you exactly where that boundary will not be placed... I was you for most of July. Rain shield was placed squarely over my yard. Been doing better lately, but the damage was done. 2-3 weeks with little to no rain in July torches everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 Low of 57 this morning. Probably the coldest since June here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Low of 57 this morning. Probably the coldest since June here. 58 here. Coolest morning of the last 3. Will be a distant memory shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I was you for most of July. Rain shield was placed squarely over my yard. Been doing better lately, but the damage was done. 2-3 weeks with little to no rain in July torches everything. I hear ya. We've had essentially no rain since the second-to-last weekend of July (so around the 22nd or so), which was when we were slated to get at least a couple inches of rain over the weekend and into the beginning of the following week. I think we had 0.20" from that whole event, which puts us at nearly three weeks since our last measurable rain. Added to that, we were definitely drier than normal in early July, as well, so it's been pretty rough going. I hate complaining about this stuff, but it's getting super frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 Just now, mattie g said: I hear ya. We've had essentially no rain since the second-to-last weekend of July (so around the 22nd or so), which was when we were slated to get at least a couple inches of rain over the weekend and into the beginning of the following week. I think we had 0.20" from that whole event, which puts us at nearly three weeks since our last measurable rain. Added to that, we were definitely drier than normal in early July, as well, so it's been pretty rough going. I hate complaining about this stuff, but it's getting super frustrating. It does get frustrating. I really enjoyed making posts complaining about failing to get rain in every possible way. Yoda seemed to like them. Have at it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 Grass is starting to turn brown again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 1.79" since the deluge on 7/8. 50% of climo rainfall during the hottest part of the year is going to fry stuff no matter what happened before that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 43 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 1.79" since the deluge on 7/8. 50% of climo rainfall during the hottest part of the year is going to fry stuff no matter what happened before that. No doubt. The hydrangeas that get more sun than others would be dead or nearly so if I hadn't watered them intermittently (and somewhat heavily) in the last couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 For anyone who registered for the online SKYWARN Class for tomorrow, Tuesday, August 13th -- it has been rescheduled to Wednesday, August 14th... thanks to @Kmlwx for the heads up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: It does get frustrating. I really enjoyed making posts complaining about failing to get rain in every possible way. Yoda seemed to like them. Have at it! It's because you are a bitter man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 33 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: It's because you are a bitter man. Yes. Just wait till winter gets here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yes. Just wait till winter gets here. I am all pins and needles in anticipation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 12, 2019 Share Posted August 12, 2019 My call for tomorrow: - Central and Northern Maryland and up through central PA get raked - Richmond to just south of Fredericksburg and a bit to their west get raked - Burke gets enough thunder to close the pool, an outflow boundary comes through and sets off storms just to the west, then they train up through very northern Fairfax, Loudoun, and Montgomery Counties. I get left with a couple drops of spittle that leave pocky dust marks on the cars. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 So I'm guessing we're on sun watch today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 After 3 mornings in the 50's, back to nasty warm and humid conditions.....69.8/68.9 currently here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Yuck. Hope like hell that the cloud cover holds, else it will be a ****ing sauna today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 3 hours ago, mattie g said: So I'm guessing we're on sun watch today? If so, that's a massive fail in Baltimore area. Socked in with clouds up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Light rain just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Raining here... @mattie g is probably angry lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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