Mrs.J Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 No storms close to me but just got a big thunder clap out of no where. Sun is back lighting the clouds to my East and the colors are vibrant. Getting more thunder. edited that cell to my West just popped out of no where! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 I’m not sure what relevance the “youth” have but LWX definitely does overwarn. Ian and others on Twitter discussed it just recently, and it doesn’t take a met to see that LWX often warns sub-severe stuff. In a busy metro area where it isn’t hard to see tree damage, I get it, but it’s overdone. Ian mentioned tiered warnings, IIRC, which I certainly wouldn’t mind. Likely confusing to the general populace. Totally off-topic, but a heck of a storm season we’ve been having. Been busy. Somewhat jealous I’m still not back in town! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m not sure what relevance the “youth” have but LWX definitely does overwarn. Ian and others on Twitter discussed it just recently, and it doesn’t take a met to see that LWX often warns sub-severe stuff. In a busy metro area where it isn’t hard to see tree damage, I get it, but it’s overdone. Ian mentioned tiered warnings, IIRC, which I certainly wouldn’t mind. Likely confusing to the general populace. Totally off-topic, but a heck of a storm season we’ve been having. Been busy. Somewhat jealous I’m still not back in town! Here is what I texted my kid in response to Alexandria alert last night: 11:08 pm June 19 2019 : " The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Alexandria. Seek indoor shelter immediately." No such happened. I want to know what this was based upon. Folks, in the end, you are crying wolf when we need to be not so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 8 minutes ago, WeatherLovingDoc said: Here is what I texted my kid in response to Alexandria alert last night: 11:08 pm June 19 2019 : " The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Alexandria. Seek indoor shelter immediately." No such happened. I want to know what this was based upon. Folks, in the end, you are crying wolf when we need to be not so. While I concede that LWX can be a little trigger-happy on the warnings, you seem to be asking for a level of precision that simply is not available given the current state of the science. Thunderstorms are inherently unpredictable--in where and when they form, how strong they become, and when they decay. The best meteorologists can do is issue warnings for an area that appears to be at risk for severe weather. Occasionally that risk will manifest; most times it won't. The alternative is to only warn storms they are certain will be severe, which will mean that the vast majority of storms that produce severe weather will go unwarned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Honestly...meh. On the north edge as things consolidated to our south. Ended up with maybe 10 minutes of moderate rain. Seriously...I’m not complaining just to complain. It really was underwhelming. Quoting myself in order to get @yoda‘s take on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 57 minutes ago, yoda said: Leesburg storm now warned for 70mph gusts That storm has weakened but is it ever presenting here an ominous look to the W/NW. Plus CG strokes out in front, prolly in Great Falls area now. This would be the third one of the day, although the second one was not much. Still, a bit reminiscent of June 4, 2008; one of my favorite severe days ever. Today doesn't compare to that, but the multiple rounds after the big one that comes through in the mid/late afternoon does reflect the pattern. Back then of course we had five or six rounds, it seemed; it didn't calm down until after midnight, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Looks like we got shafted. This winter sucks already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 49 minutes ago, Mrs.J said: No storms close to me but just got a big thunder clap out of no where. Sun is back lighting the clouds to my East and the colors are vibrant. Getting more thunder. These storms have indeed had strikes far from the rain column. I snapped this image right after a strike hit my building at work this afternoon. What would be considered the classic storm core was 8 miles to the north and we were in full sun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherLovingDoc Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 I appreciate where you experts are coming from. No sirs and madams on local, I am wondering where local "true risks"abound"such that our phones go off" in all hours all hours of the day and night then nothing happens. Imho: if it doesn't occur, we weaken our stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Storm here was 100% weak sauce. Barely over .10", but it cooled off considerably. So, win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Anyone with a link to radar estimates of rainfall? I'm in Colonial Beach this week and there's localized flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 hour ago, WeatherLovingDoc said: I appreciate where you experts are coming from. No sirs and madams on local, I am wondering where local "true risks"abound"such that our phones go off" in all hours all hours of the day and night then nothing happens. Imho: if it doesn't occur, we weaken our stance. You may want to consider asking your son to turn off the alerts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 hour ago, WeatherLovingDoc said: I appreciate where you experts are coming from. No sirs and madams on local, I am wondering where local "true risks"abound"such that our phones go off" in all hours all hours of the day and night then nothing happens. Imho: if it doesn't occur, we weaken our stance. I've captured some links to relevant CWG tweets to explain why your phone went off: 1) https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1163645178428690437/ significant storm northwest of Alexandria moving southeast. 2) https://twitter.com/NWSSevereTstorm/status/1163648473989648384 storm continues to look good on radar, and some wind damage is reported, so the warning is issued further downstream (including Alexandria) 3) https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1163651801536761856 The part of the line segment heading towards Alexandria weakens, but new cells are firing near Alexandria, so the warning is continued. 4) https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1163653293228400640 The storms for which the warning was issued weaken significantly, and the warning is dropped. New cells fire south of Alexandria. No one wants needless warnings, but it's hard to find fault with the actions taken by the local NWS office. Maybe the warning was issued too far east, but that wouldn't change anything for Alexandria. Given the ongoing severe storm just upstream, they had to put a warning on it for the areas out ahead. We're just not good enough yet to know when a storm like that will collapse. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 2 hours ago, mattie g said: Quoting myself in order to get @yoda‘s take on this one. Take as in that you were right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Chances of decent rain over the next few days here look meh. NAM has less than a quarter inch through Sat in my yard lol. The front even looks like weak sauce on latest guidance. Certainly does not look like its going to deliver a widespread soaker. Same old haves/have nots stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 51 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Chances of decent rain over the next few days here look meh. NAM has less than a quarter inch through Sat in my yard lol. The front even looks like weak sauce on latest guidance. Certainly does not look like its going to deliver a widespread soaker. Same old haves/have nots stuff. Oh joy. Flooded areas get more flooding and those of us that are cleaning up fall foliage early this year due to drought get no relief. Got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Oh joy. Flooded areas get more flooding and those of us that are cleaning up fall foliage early this year due to drought get no relief. Got it I just want some damn moisture in the hard, desert-like soil so I can loosen it up and begin the annual task of reseeding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: You and NPZ should start a contest for driest yardscape Yea...EJ was right the other day ...the whole region could use a 1-3" soaking rain . That said yesterday there were more have's then have nots for a change as far as at least wetting the pavement that I noticed but still many yards that have been constantly missed . My yard has only recently been dry ( past 2 weeks) so not a big deal yet but a couple more weeks of this then the need will for sure increase. Snipit from Sterling for tomorrow however we will remain moist and the flow will be parallel to the front. So in addition to isolated strong to severe storms, heavy rain resulting in isolated incidents of flooding will be a concern. ^^^This^^^, the 1/2 to 2 inches of rain falling in 30 minutes IS moisture, just 75-90% runs right off into gutters, curbs and creeks! That said, I'd take those 30 minutes after past week, where it thunders for an hour each afternoon then the deck barely gets wet......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: You and NPZ should start a contest for driest yardscape Yea...EJ was right the other day ...the whole region could use a 1-3" soaking rain . That said yesterday there were more have's then have nots for a change as far as at least wetting the pavement that I noticed but still many yards that have been constantly missed . My yard has only recently been dry ( past 2 weeks) so not a big deal yet but a couple more weeks of this then the need will for sure increase. Snipit from Sterling for tomorrow however we will remain moist and the flow will be parallel to the front. So in addition to isolated strong to severe storms, heavy rain resulting in isolated incidents of flooding will be a concern. In other news .. Mostly sunny here in fed hill . Definitely not as hot it doesn't appear as Monday down here This could happen with this front, if it is slow to move through and several perturbations can move along it with the front still in the area. Euro leans in that direction, while the GFS wants to basically plow the front through. Ensembles generally have it moving through more slowly. Even so, my yard would still manage to somehow miss the best precip lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: In other news .. Mostly sunny here in fed hill . Definitely not as hot it doesn't appear as Monday down here Co-worker lives in Fed Hill. Nice area, and some great views of the Inner harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 10 hours ago, yoda said: Take as in that you were right? I mean, I'm not here to toot my own horn... Let's do it better today, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 I got .62 inches in my yard yesterday. Not bad. The whole time it rained I was in the movie theater. But the radar sure looked like 1" was on the table for most. But as fast as the storms grew, they died. This has been an interesting year for pop-up and stationary storms. By the way, it's hot outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 A surprise STWatch appears! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Looks like a more "normal" line of storms than what we've seen over the past week. Moving nice and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 hour ago, yoda said: A surprise STWatch appears! Shocked me. Ofc I expect to see little to nothing here. Hope I am proven wrong, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Looking at the latest guidance, tomorrow night , and then again Friday evening, look like the best potential for my area. And the latter depends on how fast the front moves through. That action could easily end up south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 These cumulus clouds don't even look like they could become storms anytime soon. In fact, they look like the kind of flat, puffy clouds you usually see after a cold front passage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Missing that cell by about 2 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Not quite as hot today as yesterday. High yesterday 92 high today just 87. Now let's get some storms cookin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1.16” in about 30 min. Pretty impressive deluge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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