18z Model Thread 12/22

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

the upper air at 90hrs and what occurs with sfc low post 90hrs seems like a disconnect a bit.

in comparing the 18z op gfs to the 12z ec, pretty darn close with all major vorts...biggest difference I see is north of the Great Lakes in Ont with GFS having vortex farther south and east. then by 6z sunday the 18z op gfs allows for more energy to dig toward MSP as opposed to euro keeing a more more North to south flow there. those small differences look to alter the sharpness/broadness of the over mean trof and affect the timing and amplitude with which features phase

visual real quick and dirrrty

[retusnmete8]

The Euro has had this solution, or something with big coastal impact, for six runs in a row now. The GFS has trended towards it slowly..I would like to see some signals on the GFS Ensembles in a few minutes when the mean comes out.

In about 12-24 hours..if the current modeling holds and the Euro doesn't get flat..I will ring the dinner bell. The Euro very rarely gives off an alarm like this and it's doing it right now. I can't even begin to count the amount of times I have seen the GFS be slightly southeast and less amplified than the Euro at 102 hrs only to come northwest as the storm approached.

That being said..this is a very fragile setup. I've said it several times. Somebody can sneeze near the MS river and mess up the phase. So we can hope the Euro's vertical resolution is helping it resolve the differences here. But I would hope some globals start trending west soon; otherwise the Euro will begin to become an obnoxious outlier.

Spot On! Is anyone relally that surprised or just relieved, anxious or all the above?

[baroclinic_instability]

the upper air at 90hrs and what occurs with sfc low post 90hrs seems like a disconnect a bit.

in comparing the 18z op gfs to the 12z ec, pretty darn close with all major vorts...biggest difference I see is north of the Great Lakes in Ont with GFS having vortex farther south and east. then by 6z sunday the 18z op gfs allows for more energy to dig toward MSP as opposed to euro keeing a more more North to south flow there. those small differences look to alter the sharpness/broadness of the over mean trof and affect the timing and amplitude with which features phase

Yeah I see your point, and fully agree. And it actually goes back to what I was saying earlier with the comparison that DJ Azenro posted and then I responded by saying a too fast track will result in less amplification. The 18Z GFS being 6 hrs faster changes a lot. I don't buy it either. Chalk it up to being an off hour perhaps. Agreed with your assessment though. A slower solution will dig more, and we need that. Taken as a whole though, this run looks ready to explode. If all this happened the same way with a slower phase, it would have been a big boom because the heights aloft were showing good potential to hook NW. Can't wait to see the 0Z.

[SnowGoose69]

Its not too surprising the surface seems off, there is often a lag from when the upper features are picked up and the surface features match it,.

[retusnmete8]

Now lets see how they all react now that they are getting close.

Euro closer to coast and deeper.. Gonna be fun now..

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

visual real quick and dirrrty

honestly, in looking at all the major features up to 72-84hours, that red circle is about the only area with major differences between 18z gfs and 12z ec. slightly timing/amp differences with southern stream and first northern stream piece, but those are all noise that would iron themselves out to be pretty darn close. Those "red circle" differences and the exactly amount of n-s oriented flow and exact location of vortex, are pretty much it. Not bad actually. We are finally getting there...where ever there is..

[baroclinic_instability]

honestly, in looking at all the major features up to 72-84hours, that red circle is about the only area with major differences between 18z gfs and 12z ec. slightly timing/amp differences with southern stream and first northern stream piece, but those are all noise that would iron themselves out to be pretty darn close. Those "red circle" differences and the exactly amount of n-s oriented flow and exact location of vortex, are pretty much it. Not bad actually. We are finally getting there...where ever there is..

I am not wish-casting, I truly believe the 0Z will likely iron out its anomalous very fast phase (compared to the trend amongst all guidance, including the GFS up that point) and will likely be a big hit unless something else unexpected pops up--which is a very real possibility in this chaotic environment. All else equal, I think 0Z will likely continue the positive trend.

[Gibbsfreeenergy]

visual real quick and dirrrty

in looking at the Euro ens members, there are very few members that show that rolling ridge and more east to west motion (like 18z gfs) as compared to the more north to flow digging flow like the euro op. Thats a good sign IMO

[Ender]

in looking at the Euro ens members, there are very few members that show that rolling ridge and more east to west motion (like 18z gfs) as compared to the more north to flow digging flow like the euro op. Thats a good sign IMO

Do a significant number of the members support the OP's intensity and cutoff position/timing or is the OP one of, or the only, extreme outlier?

[vinylfreak89]

biggest difference Im seeing with 18Z GFS vs 12Z euro is it is swallowing the sourthern shortwave still

before people say thoe are not the same time period, plymouth screwed up the timestamps. also looks a bit deeper with the northern shortwave, which actually would be good if it wasn't playing race horse with the southern shortwave.

for comparison here is the 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro

GFS seems to have a better handle on the southern shortwave at 12Z but is too progressive with the northern shortwave....

so the 18Z does better with the northern shortwave and worse with the southern one... hence a near wash on the track, albeit faster

[MD Snow]

Anybody have info on the GEFS?

[am19psu]

Do a significant number of the members support the OP's intensity and cutoff position/timing or is the OP one of, or the only, extreme outlier?

There are quite a few members that support the op. Much different than the 0z spread.

[NortheastPAWx]

18z GEFS mostly agree with the OP.