Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here is my quick and simple counterpoint. The 0Z GFS. That digging trough you point out is TOO late. As the leading wave ejects over the EC, that jet you mention does this (circled red): Au Revoir and way OTS (blue line). The 0z GFS barely had any vorticity south of northern GA. The new NAM has a max in the GOM. They aren't even comparable. The new NAM is far deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The 0z GFS barely had any vorticity south of northern GA. The new NAM has a max in the GOM. They aren't even comparable. The new NAM is far deeper. They are actually quite similar, and the 18Z NAM would do nearly the exact same thing as the 0Z GFS if extrapolated. Don't worry because I know the NAM will be wrong, and I am not trying to dump on the EC storm. I want a massive, crippling hit. I am just simply providing analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 They are actually quite similar, and the 18Z NAM would do nearly the exact same thing as the 0Z GFS if extrapolated. Don't worry because I know the NAM will be wrong, and I am not trying to dump on the EC storm. I want a massive, crippling hit. I am just simply providing analysis. I think the NAM has much higher heights up along the eastern seaboard, so it would probably be tugged further north and west than the 00z GFS did..the 00z GFS if I remember correctly was the furthest south and east solution of the entire guidance suite. It not only suppressed the shortwave in the gulf but also had very low heights on the east coast and no amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here is my quick and simple counterpoint. The 0Z GFS. That digging trough you point out is TOO late. As the leading wave ejects over the EC, that jet you mention does this (circled red): Au Revoir and way OTS (blue line). The width of the trough on the 00Z GFS is greater than the width of the trough on the 18Z NAM though, right? Wouldn't this make a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Amenzo Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here is my quick and simple counterpoint. The 0Z GFS. That digging trough you point out is TOO late. As the leading wave ejects over the EC, that jet you mention does this (circled red): Au Revoir and way OTS (blue line). I simply just disagree with you. Is the 18z NAM a carbon copy of ECWMF? No, but its ALMOST there. The leading wave is being pulled up into the trough complex as phasing commences. Take a look at where the backside vort is on this map: The leading way you circled is not ejecting out into the ATL. Its being phased into the quickly amplifying trough complex. SLP placement would indicate this as well to me. FYI, I'm disagreeing with you respectfully. I'm not being a dick or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here is my quick and simple counterpoint. The 0Z GFS. That digging trough you point out is TOO late. As the leading wave ejects over the EC, that jet you mention does this (circled red): Au Revoir and way OTS (blue line). All due respect, I gotta say, I don't see any sense in what you are doing, saying a jet in last night's GFS is the same jet in the 18Z NAM. It's not. There's no such thing as the 18Z 84 hour NAM jet at 108 hours. It doesn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I think the NAM has much higher heights up along the eastern seaboard, so it would probably be tugged further north and west than the 00z GFS did..the 00z GFS if I remember correctly was the furthest south and east solution of the entire guidance suite. It not only suppressed the shortwave in the gulf but also had very low heights on the east coast and no amplification. I dis agree, and I really wasn't trying to make a direct comparison. But the NAM now just can not hook into the coast as you mention without the GOM influence. Strong diabatic effects in the low levels through latent heat release need to happen for rapid intensification. 18Z GFS from yesterday is actually even more similar looking to todays 18Z NAM, just a tad N. This configuration actually almost looks better with the height rises ahead of the wave. Look at what that run produces. Not a good result. Either way, I still don't care because the NAM will take a while to catch up. http://www.twisterda...&archive=false# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 All due respect, I gotta say, I don't see any sense in what you are doing, saying a jet in last night's GFS is the same jet in the 18Z NAM. It's not. There's no such thing as the 18Z 84 hour NAM jet at 108 hours. It doesn't exist. That is ok. I posted that to show the general idea that the current NAM would do much the same as yesterdays 0Z GFS. That jet streak DJ Amenzro pointed out would play no role in this fast solution because the storm would be OTS already. Not making direct hourly comparisons here. I am responding to what DZ said about the jet that he circled. We are talking extrapolations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 They are actually quite similar, and the 18Z NAM would do nearly the exact same thing as the 0Z GFS if extrapolated. Don't worry because I know the NAM will be wrong, and I am not trying to dump on the EC storm. I want a massive, crippling hit. I am just simply providing analysis. I think the NAM has much higher heights up along the eastern seaboard, so it would probably be tugged further north and west than the 00z GFS did..the 00z GFS if I remember correctly was the furthest south and east solution of the entire guidance suite. It not only suppressed the shortwave in the gulf but also had very low heights on the east coast and no amplification. Et al, trying to compare the two IMO is kind of pointless. I know we all like to do it, but this solution will continue to evolve. I think the NAM is a positive step but remember i'm on Cape Cod. Everyone's perspective is different. What it didn't do is get worse, and I think that's important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS begins, 500mb s/w entering california at initialization. We should be getting good data out west starting with tonight's 0z runs. Which I will see tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Here is my quick and simple counterpoint. The 0Z GFS. That digging trough you point out is TOO late. As the leading wave ejects over the EC, that jet you mention does this (circled red): Au Revoir and way OTS (blue line). I love this graphical description and agree with the issues and implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Sort of weird to read all of these "NAM looks great" comments and then see this one. nothing will look great at 84 hours if you cant see the end result. the bottom line is just watching if models keep trending in a positive direction or not, toward the euro, and if the euro holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 out to 18 hrs gfs looks a bit stronger compared to 12 z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Differences aleady re the s/w between 12z and 18z at the h5 level by 18 hrs 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looking at the strength of the low off the coast of California which will become the seed for our storm, it would appear that the deeper solution near the four corners makes more sense from a 'nowcast' perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 500 energy on the 18z GFS definitely looks stronger and more compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 southern stream s/w is trending more south, starting to worry that it will be too dislocated from the northern stream to phase in time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 51 closed low just east of dallas. northern stream starting to come in faster than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 my early guess is slightly stronger, quicker phase, vs 12z...would guess west of 12z...just an early guess based on vort differences and slight h5 changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 new closed low at hr 54 was not there at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I don't think this run is going to do it. Not looking terribly great through 54, we will see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 60 northern stream continues to dive in alittle faster..1016 low on sw coast of la phasing starting to occur at hr 66..hgts along the east are more tilted sw to ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Now it looks better through 66 with the backside trough digging in I change my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retusnmete8 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The suspense is killing me, but I do expect it to be closer to Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 sharper and more phased at 72hrs vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Question from somebody that does not know much about what I'm looking. Is the s/w already starting to phase at 48?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It will be west of 12z you can tell by hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 SNOW INTO cent va nc by midday christmas much faster this run wit the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Question from somebody that does not know much about what I'm looking. Is the s/w already starting to phase at 48?? Stop posting and read more.. thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 1009 west of SAV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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