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18z Model Thread 12/22


yoda

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Here is my quick and simple counterpoint. The 0Z GFS.

That digging trough you point out is TOO late. As the leading wave ejects over the EC, that jet you mention does this (circled red):

post-999-0-14647300-1293052619.png

Au Revoir and way OTS (blue line).

The 0z GFS barely had any vorticity south of northern GA. The new NAM has a max in the GOM. They aren't even comparable. The new NAM is far deeper.

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The 0z GFS barely had any vorticity south of northern GA. The new NAM has a max in the GOM. They aren't even comparable. The new NAM is far deeper.

They are actually quite similar, and the 18Z NAM would do nearly the exact same thing as the 0Z GFS if extrapolated. Don't worry because I know the NAM will be wrong, and I am not trying to dump on the EC storm. I want a massive, crippling hit. I am just simply providing analysis.

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They are actually quite similar, and the 18Z NAM would do nearly the exact same thing as the 0Z GFS if extrapolated. Don't worry because I know the NAM will be wrong, and I am not trying to dump on the EC storm. I want a massive, crippling hit. I am just simply providing analysis.

I think the NAM has much higher heights up along the eastern seaboard, so it would probably be tugged further north and west than the 00z GFS did..the 00z GFS if I remember correctly was the furthest south and east solution of the entire guidance suite. It not only suppressed the shortwave in the gulf but also had very low heights on the east coast and no amplification.

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Here is my quick and simple counterpoint. The 0Z GFS.

That digging trough you point out is TOO late. As the leading wave ejects over the EC, that jet you mention does this (circled red):

Au Revoir and way OTS (blue line).

The width of the trough on the 00Z GFS is greater than the width of the trough on the 18Z NAM though, right? Wouldn't this make a difference?

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Here is my quick and simple counterpoint. The 0Z GFS.

That digging trough you point out is TOO late. As the leading wave ejects over the EC, that jet you mention does this (circled red):

post-999-0-14647300-1293052619.png

Au Revoir and way OTS (blue line).

I simply just disagree with you. Is the 18z NAM a carbon copy of ECWMF? No, but its ALMOST there. The leading wave is being pulled up into the trough complex as phasing commences. Take a look at where the backside vort is on this map:

nam_500_084s.gif

The leading way you circled is not ejecting out into the ATL. Its being phased into the quickly amplifying trough complex. SLP placement would indicate this as well to me. FYI, I'm disagreeing with you respectfully. I'm not being a dick or anything.

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Here is my quick and simple counterpoint. The 0Z GFS.

That digging trough you point out is TOO late. As the leading wave ejects over the EC, that jet you mention does this (circled red):

post-999-0-14647300-1293052619.png

Au Revoir and way OTS (blue line).

All due respect, I gotta say, I don't see any sense in what you are doing, saying a jet in last night's GFS is the same jet in the 18Z NAM. It's not. There's no such thing as the 18Z 84 hour NAM jet at 108 hours. It doesn't exist.

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I think the NAM has much higher heights up along the eastern seaboard, so it would probably be tugged further north and west than the 00z GFS did..the 00z GFS if I remember correctly was the furthest south and east solution of the entire guidance suite. It not only suppressed the shortwave in the gulf but also had very low heights on the east coast and no amplification.

I dis agree, and I really wasn't trying to make a direct comparison. But the NAM now just can not hook into the coast as you mention without the GOM influence. Strong diabatic effects in the low levels through latent heat release need to happen for rapid intensification. 18Z GFS from yesterday is actually even more similar looking to todays 18Z NAM, just a tad N.

This configuration actually almost looks better with the height rises ahead of the wave. Look at what that run produces. Not a good result. Either way, I still don't care because the NAM will take a while to catch up.

http://www.twisterda...&archive=false#

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All due respect, I gotta say, I don't see any sense in what you are doing, saying a jet in last night's GFS is the same jet in the 18Z NAM. It's not. There's no such thing as the 18Z 84 hour NAM jet at 108 hours. It doesn't exist.

That is ok. I posted that to show the general idea that the current NAM would do much the same as yesterdays 0Z GFS. That jet streak DJ Amenzro pointed out would play no role in this fast solution because the storm would be OTS already.

Not making direct hourly comparisons here. I am responding to what DZ said about the jet that he circled. We are talking extrapolations.

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They are actually quite similar, and the 18Z NAM would do nearly the exact same thing as the 0Z GFS if extrapolated. Don't worry because I know the NAM will be wrong, and I am not trying to dump on the EC storm. I want a massive, crippling hit. I am just simply providing analysis.

I think the NAM has much higher heights up along the eastern seaboard, so it would probably be tugged further north and west than the 00z GFS did..the 00z GFS if I remember correctly was the furthest south and east solution of the entire guidance suite. It not only suppressed the shortwave in the gulf but also had very low heights on the east coast and no amplification.

Et al, trying to compare the two IMO is kind of pointless. I know we all like to do it, but this solution will continue to evolve. I think the NAM is a positive step but remember i'm on Cape Cod. Everyone's perspective is different. What it didn't do is get worse, and I think that's important.

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Here is my quick and simple counterpoint. The 0Z GFS.

That digging trough you point out is TOO late. As the leading wave ejects over the EC, that jet you mention does this (circled red):

post-999-0-14647300-1293052619.png

Au Revoir and way OTS (blue line).

I love this graphical description and agree with the issues and implications.

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