yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The 18z NAM is out to 12 hrs. It would appear that the s/w is a bit more consolidated then it was at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 for 6 hours thats a decent change... could be more significant down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Big difference between 18z h5 at 18 and 12z h5 at 24 is there is now a more consolidated h5 low... not that weird two looking one at 12z 18z NAM at 18hrs h5 12z NAM at 24 hrs h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 FWIW, 15z SREFs are much improved at 500mb over the 9z ones: 15z http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/images/sref_50h_087s.gif 9z http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/15/images/sref_50h_081s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 seems to be stuck on hr 30 the differences at hr 30 (open is the 18z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 8:03 PM, Jmister said: FWIW, 15z SREFs are much improved at 500mb over the 9z ones: 15z http://www.nco.ncep....ef_50h_087s.gif 9z http://www.nco.ncep....ef_50h_081s.gif 15z SREFS have a lot more energy dropping south from Canada and it looks to be dropping dead south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at hr 36, 12z and 18z are almost the same, perhaps slightly slower and a hair south at hr 42, nice jump south compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 At 42 hrs the s/w is further southwest then it was at 12z re h5. At 12z it was in the panhandle of TX, while at 18z its in extreme SE New Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Northern stream energy looks more consolidated compared to 12z as well to my untrained Eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 closed off at 48 and 54 aqnd 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Nam looks really good at 48...compared to 12..s/w energy is stronger and a bit farther s.w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 8:24 PM, stormtracker said: Nam looks really good at 48...compared to 12..s/w energy is stronger and a bit farther s.w Would this result in the storm riding the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 8:24 PM, stormtracker said: Nam looks really good at 48...compared to 12..s/w energy is stronger and a bit farther s.w Yes it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 8:24 PM, stormtracker said: Nam looks really good at 48...compared to 12..s/w energy is stronger and a bit farther s.w At quick glance...54hr looks to be a phenomenal improvement of 60hr at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 8:26 PM, SNO said: Would this result in the storm riding the coast? The model run is still ongoing, in the next few frames we should get a clearer picture with the off model run. tonights 00z run should hopefully give us a narrower range of outcomes, but one can never know for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 at hr 60, the sfc low is off the southeast tx coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 54 major changes comparison: 12z: 18z Closed off low in central texas, Phasing starting to occur @ 54 18z and northern stream energy more consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 66 is a huge step to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldstar Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The ULL looks to be vacating a little faster as well, or maybe my eyes see incorrectly, that may be influencing the deepening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 8:03 PM, Jmister said: FWIW, 15z SREFs are much improved at 500mb over the 9z ones: 15z http://www.nco.ncep....ef_50h_087s.gif 9z http://www.nco.ncep....ef_50h_081s.gif Better height rises ahead of the trough on the 15z, which means the sfc low wouldn't be squashed out to sea as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 8:31 PM, goldstar said: The ULL looks to be vacating a little faster as well, or maybe my eyes see incorrectly, that may be influencing the deepening? I think it shifting out a little quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 66 is sucking all the northern stream . 66 has a closed low over se texas huge change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 If we can get the surface low to actually go over the GOMEX for a bit, that should really juice the system up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 all positive trends on 18z nam vs 6z nam...more dug northern stream and higher H5 east coast..eastern ME vortex much farther north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 8:35 PM, WeatherGQ said: huge change? good or bad? That is a good change for snow lovers. Midlo's post implies the northern and southern streams of the jet stream are combining, thus setting up a significant east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 this looks promising http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/index_700_s_loop.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 On 12/22/2010 at 8:37 PM, Gibbsfreeenergy said: all positive trends on 18z nam vs 6z nam...more dug northern stream and higher H5 east coast..eastern ME vortex much farther north too. also add on sharper and slightly more amp'd and less progressive upstream ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Surface low in N GOM at hour 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18z nam 4mb deeper with sfc low in GOM vs 12z run even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Gulf appears open for business @ hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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