TriPol Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: The steam makes a return for Wednesday. Mid 70’s dewpoints coupled with PWATS around 2.00”. Plenty of high octane juice for heavy convection. Looks like more potential for a flash flood warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 The city may see a storm today as the upper low to our S/SW moves overhead. NJ should see widespread storms, probably same for the Hudson Valley. LI, maybe something isolated today. Tomorrow looks good for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2019 Author Share Posted August 6, 2019 14 minutes ago, TriPol said: Looks like more potential for a flash flood warning! That’s what it’s looking like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Deep layer shear isn't terrible tomorrow, might see some organization and severe wind. Obviously tons of moisture and good low-level lapse rates. Should be a stormy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The steam makes a return for Wednesday. Mid 70’s dewpoints coupled with PWATS around 2.00”. Plenty of high octane juice for heavy convection. We could use one of those 2”+ type days. Newly planted Trees are starting to brown on the wantagh parkway. It’s pretty par for the course for the south shore, we seem to get a local drought at some point most summers. That’s why historically the immediate south shore had a strip of pitch pine scrub forest which can handle dry better then deciduous trees like tulips found on the north shore 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2019 Author Share Posted August 6, 2019 26 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: We could use one of those 2”+ type days. Newly planted Trees are starting to brown on the wantagh parkway. It’s pretty par for the course for the south shore, we seem to get a local drought at some point most summers. That’s why historically the immediate south shore had a strip of pitch pine scrub forest which can handle dry better then deciduous trees like tulips found on the north shore We’ll probably have to rely on these convective events for our rainfall chances a while longer. Some hints from the EPS weeklies that the tropics will become active in September. https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1158519860537651201 ECMWF weekly guidance FINALLY suggests a relaxation of the sinking branch over the Atlantic after September 10th. This could coincide with an increase in tropical cyclone activity across the basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: We’ll probably have to rely on these convective events for our rainfall chances a while longer. Some hints from the EPS weeklies that the tropics will become active in September. https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1158519860537651201 ECMWF weekly guidance FINALLY suggests a relaxation of the sinking branch over the Atlantic after September 10th. This could coincide with an increase in tropical cyclone activity across the basin. with 9/10 being the tropical peak, (and action getting going after that date) looks like a possible down year as JB and some other have opined. Looks pretty dead out in the MDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: with 9/10 being the tropical peak, (and action getting going after that date) looks like a possible down year as JB and some other have opined. Looks pretty dead out in the MDR. Does a dead Atlantic mean an active winter? 2009 & 2013/2014 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: with 9/10 being the tropical peak, (and action getting going after that date) looks like a possible down year as JB and some other have opined. Looks pretty dead out in the MDR. Yeah the MDR is doa. What I’m looking for this year is for a wave to make it close to home before developing and take advantage of the bathtub between Hatteras and Bermuda. Something like a Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Does a dead Atlantic mean an active winter? 2009 & 2013/2014 comes to mind. I always thought it was the other way around-lots of Atlantic storms equaled cold/snowy east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I always thought it was the other way around-lots of Atlantic storms equaled cold/snowy east coast Not always. That wasn’t the case in 96-97 and 05-06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 storms starting to fire just west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: storms starting to fire just west of the city And look like they are slow movers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Torrential downpour in midtown from that little cell that just fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 absolute deluge at work in LIC - never heard rain from inside the office before. hearing some thunder now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2019 Author Share Posted August 6, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: with 9/10 being the tropical peak, (and action getting going after that date) looks like a possible down year as JB and some other have opined. Looks pretty dead out in the MDR. US Hurricane landfalls have been more backloaded since 2014. More October landfalls than JJA combined since 2014.The Joaquin 1000 year floods trough interaction in 2015 isn’t included since there was no landfall. But plenty of flood damage. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html 2010 None 2011 Aug NC, 1 1 952 75 Irene 2012 Aug LA, 1 1 966 70 Isaac 2012 Oct * NY, 1 1 942 65 Sandy 2013 None 2014 Jul NC, 2 2 973 85 Arthur 2015 None 2016 Sep FL, NW1 1 981 70 Hermine 2016 Oct * FL, NE2; GA, 1; SC, 1; NC, 1 2 963 85 Matthew 2017 Aug TX,S 4 4 937 115 Harvey 2017 Sep FL,SW 4,SE 1 4 931 115 Irma 2017 Oct LA 1, MS 1 1 983 65 Nate 2018 Sep NC 1 1 956 80 Florence 2018 Oct FL, NW 5; I-GA 2 5 919 140 Michael Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Just getting to work on the uws. Hoping the cell didn’t miss just to the south. A solid coating will limit my having to water all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Torrential downpour in midtown from that little cell that just fired. Doesnt look like its moving at all either. Its dry looking down toward City Hall but I see rain just few blocks north and midtown is completely obscured in heavy rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Flash flood warning! 4th week in a row! I've never seen anything like this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 storms love sitting just north of jersey city, it seems every time I look at the radar theres a storm parked over the area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Last evenings Aurora Borealis from the Adirondacks. Violet colored pillars filled the night sky as a weak geometric solar storm affected Earth. This was a new photography spot and dealing with the light pollution was very challenging. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Not a drop of rain on the uws. Everyone should cash in tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Not a drop of rain on the uws. Everyone should cash in tomorrow though. Nothing measurable at my station yet this month....very variable around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Firm has summer outing scheduled for tomorrow, starting at 1, they want to cancel due to rain, im not sure it rains out here before 5. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 In the past hour or so, the humidity has REALLY increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 6, 2019 Author Share Posted August 6, 2019 This is one of those days when the ocean temperature is warmer that the air temperature at the beach. SST’s continue in the upper 70’s without any August major heat. More fuel for high dewpoints and heavy rains around the region. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1850 75 77 170/ 8/ 10 1011.0 2/ 9 20 S Fire Island 1850 75 78 190/ 2/ 4 1011.3 2/ 9 Great South Bay 1815 75 80 CALM / 4 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1850 72 10/ 8/ 10 1011.5 3/ 8 15 E Barnegat Li 1830 79 N/A 2/18 Hudson Canyon 1850 78 79 80/ 4/ 6 1011.0 3/ 8 Jones Beach N/A 75 N/A N/A S6 N/A Breezy Point N/A 75 N/A N/A S10 N/A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 59 minutes ago, psv88 said: Firm has summer outing scheduled for tomorrow, starting at 1, they want to cancel due to rain, im not sure it rains out here before 5. Thoughts? Tough call. With the high dewpoints/PWATS-storms could pop anywhere at anytime tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 all the meso models i've looked at show an active sea breeze tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 Either the EURO WEEKLIES have a problem, or we do-----because the predicted anomaly over the next 6 weeks+ is at a record +5F, it would appear. This is from yesterday's output. The CFSv2 looks like the antipodes to the EURO, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 where is this big cool down i keep hearing about? The lowest high i see is 83, with no lows under 67. Am i missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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