August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Rjay]

Btw, I had 2.30" yesterday 

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, readings returned to near normal today. Somewhat above normal temperatures are likely across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions tomorrow.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat could last through the current week.

Select daily records included: Alta Lufthavn, Norway: 75°; Banak, Norway: 75°; Berlevag, Norway: 75° (old record: 63°); Honningsvag, Norway: 70°; Ivalo, Finland: 75°; Kemi, Finland: 75°; Kirkenes Lufthavn, Norway: 75°; Kiruna, Sweden: 72°; Kruunuppy, Finland: 81°; Kuopio, Finland: 79°; Kuusamo, Finland: 73°; Mehamn, Norway: 73°; Oulu, Finland: 79°; Rovaniemi, Finland: 75°; Sorkjosen, Norway: 75°; Vaasa, Finland: 81°; and, Vadso, Norway: 72° (old record: 61°).

The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. That temperature would match what had previously been the warmest monthly temperature on record prior to July 2019. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016.

In addition, Anchorage will very likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 99%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage.

Moreover, San Francisco will likely experience its warmest August on record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -15.05 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.676. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway.

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not in necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half.

September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°.

On August 28, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.948 (RMM). The August 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.171.

Finally, New York City has an implied 65% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

[Dan76]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Btw, I had 2.30" yesterday 

Probably about that in freeport.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under bright sunshine, readings returned to near normal today. Somewhat above normal temperatures are likely across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions tomorrow.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat could last through the current week.

Select daily records included: Alta Lufthavn, Norway: 75°; Banak, Norway: 75°; Berlevag, Norway: 75° (old record: 63°); Honningsvag, Norway: 70°; Ivalo, Finland: 75°; Kemi, Finland: 75°; Kirkenes Lufthavn, Norway: 75°; Kiruna, Sweden: 72°; Kruunuppy, Finland: 81°; Kuopio, Finland: 79°; Kuusamo, Finland: 73°; Mehamn, Norway: 73°; Oulu, Finland: 79°; Rovaniemi, Finland: 75°; Sorkjosen, Norway: 75°; Vaasa, Finland: 81°; and, Vadso, Norway: 72° (old record: 61°).

The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. That temperature would match what had previously been the warmest monthly temperature on record prior to July 2019. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016.

In addition, Anchorage will very likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 99%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage.

Moreover, San Francisco will likely experience its warmest August on record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -15.05 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.676. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway.

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not in necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half.

September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°.

On August 28, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.948 (RMM). The August 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.171.

Finally, New York City has an implied 65% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

I was wondering if the warming in September was getting pushed back, because it seems like temps will drop into the low 70s after Labor Day weekend?  I have strong doubts that JFK or Long Island sees any more 90 degree days this year, especially since we only had 1 of them in August.

 

 

[CIK62]

The last two days of August are averaging 74degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is +0.2[75.5].      August should end at  +0.2[75.4].

68.5* here at 6am.

 

 

[bluewave]

Another year with a very high number of 75 degree dewpoint days along the South Shore sections of NYC and Long Island. This was a 2nd  top 3 finish in 2 years for JFK and ISP. The record breaking streak since 2016 continues.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2019&dpi=100&_fmt=js

JFK 75 degree or higher dewpoint days

#1....43...2018

#2... 25...2019

#3....24...1983

#4....19....2016

#5....18....1999

#6....17....2017....1995

ISP

#1...34...2018

#2...19...2005

#3...18...2019

#4...15...1979...1975

#5....14...1998...1995

#6....13...2016....2002

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I was wondering if the warming in September was getting pushed back, because it seems like temps will drop into the low 70s after Labor Day weekend?  I have strong doubts that JFK or Long Island sees any more 90 degree days this year, especially since we only had 1 of them in August.

 

 

The warmest anomalies will likely occur during the second half of September. Dorian's impact on the pattern has created some additional uncertainty for the first 10 days of the month.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another year with a very high number of 75 degree dewpoint days along the South Shore sections of NYC and Long Island. This was a 2nd  top 3 finish in 2 years for JFK and ISP. The record breaking streak since 2016 continues.

JFK 75 degree or higher dewpoint days

#1....43...2018

#2... 25...2019

#3....24...1983

#4....19....2016

#5....18....1999

#6....17....2017....1995

ISP

#1...34...2018

#2...19...2005

#3...18...2019

#4...15...1979...1975

#5....14...1998...1995

#6....13...2016....2002

Does JFK have a lot more 75+ dew point days compared to LGA, NYC and EWR the last couple of years, Chris?

 

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Does JFK have a lot more 75+ dew point days compared to LGA, NYC and EWR the last couple of years, Chris?

 

While average summer dewpoints have been on the rise across the whole region, the highest local readings were found near the NYC and  Long Island South Shore. The maps for July show this very well. Notice the overall higher dewpoint surge north up along the East Coast. We have been getting dewpoint readings more typical for the Mid-Atlantic region. Follows the theme of a shift to a more subtropical climate zone. 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While average summer dewpoints have been on the rise across the whole region, the highest local readings were found near the NYC and  Long Island South Shore. The maps for July show this very well. Notice the overall surge north up along the East Coast. We have been getting dewpoint readings more typical for the Mid-Atlantic region. Follows the theme of a shift to a more subtropical climate zone. 

 

 

That matches up with what I'm seeing in terms of the types of trees people are planting.  There's this tree with pink/magenta flowers that one of my neighbors planted that he told me is native to the southeast that he's now able to plant here.

And now we have three species of ticks here that are infectious and mosquitoes that spread EEE, a form of encephalitis, not to mention a much longer allergy season?

 

 

[Cfa]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That matches up with what I'm seeing in terms of the types of trees people are planting.  There's this tree with pink/magenta flowers that one of my neighbors planted that he told me is native to the southeast that he's now able to plant here.

And now we have three species of ticks here that are infectious and mosquitoes that spread EEE, a form of encephalitis, not to mention a much longer allergy season?

 

 

Sounds like a Crape Myrtle, which is actually an Asian species, but is very popular in the South and somewhat common here. They’ve always been here, but they weren’t always as popular as they are now. In Hicksville near IKEA there’s a row of mature 20-30 foot Crape Myrtles with pink flowers.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Sounds like a Crape Myrtle, which is actually an Asian species, but is very popular in the South and somewhat common here. They’ve always been here, but they weren’t always as popular as they are now. In Hicksville near IKEA there’s a row of mature 20-30 foot Crape Myrtles with lavender-colored flowers.

They are gorgeous, I was thinking of planting some.  Can they last through bad winters here, like 2010-11?

 

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I was wondering if the warming in September was getting pushed back, because it seems like temps will drop into the low 70s after Labor Day weekend?  I have strong doubts that JFK or Long Island sees any more 90 degree days this year, especially since we only had 1 of them in August.

 

 

Next Tue/Wed will be the last shot I think. After that things turn cool for a while. 

Even if the 2nd half of September is warm to very warm you would still need a highly anomalous, record breaking pattern to get 90+ by then.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Next Tue/Wed will be the last shot I think. After that things turn cool for a while. 

Even if the 2nd half of September is warm to very warm you would still need a highly anomalous, record breaking pattern to get 90+ by then.

regardless of what happens later, this summer seems to have abruptly ended last Thursday....feels very fallish since then and this weekend will be a continuation of that...

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Next Tue/Wed will be the last shot I think. After that things turn cool for a while. 

Even if the 2nd half of September is warm to very warm you would still need a highly anomalous, record breaking pattern to get 90+ by then.

Yeah, we didn't even see that in 1993.  I think the last time we hit 90 that year (the 39th time, which tied the record from 1991, was on Sept 15, on my bday lol, with Hurricane Emily, a Cat 3, off the NC coast.)  We might have hit 90 later than that in 1991, I forget, I think it was somewhere between the 21st and 24th?  1983 was the champion of long lasting heat and humidity and the previous record holder- we had a really hot September that year, hitting 99 or 100 in September (on 9/11 I think) and 95 as late as the 21st and our last 90 that year was around the 24th or 25th.  Latest 90 I can remember was in a year that wasn't even that hot, 2007, when we hit 90 at JFK on October 9th or 10th.  The only time it ever hit 90 here in October.  That year we hit 70 on the 11th anniversary of the Jan 1996 blizzard in early Jan, and 90 in the first half of October.  But we had a cold second half of winter with inches of ice and sleet events instead of snow.  Really strange year.

Typically we switch to a true fall pattern in the third week of September, right in time for the equinox.

 

[Cfa]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

They are gorgeous, I was thinking of planting some.  Can they last through bad winters here, like 2010-11?

 

Yeah, 2010-11 style winters shouldn’t be a problem. They’re suited to the climate here for the most part, a few varieties don’t do well with below zero temperatures, but that really isn’t an issue here since such temperatures are extremely rare.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Sounds like a Crape Myrtle, which is actually an Asian species, but is very popular in the South and somewhat common here. They’ve always been here, but they weren’t always as popular as they are now. In Hicksville near IKEA there’s a row of mature 20-30 foot Crape Myrtles with pink flowers.

I remember 15 years ago, on the day my father passed, I found a plant in his entryway still in the mail wrapping. He was very much in love with my mother and even though she had passed 12 years previously he still bought and planted what he felt she would have liked. Sadly I decided to take it to my postage stamp back yard, plant it in a large pot and hope for the best. It gave out vigorous greenery and grew a bit each year, all in that same large pot. This past year I had to remove an oak that was doing poorly and prune a healthy one. Two oaks in my backyard is quite a feat. With one gone the portion of the yard with the plant received more sun. The pot was against the wall of my neighbor, the Kane street Synagogue. To my amazement, after 15 years, it bloomed, adorned with beautiful pink flowers. With all due respect to my wonderful neighbors I began calling it The Chosen Plant. 15 years in the wilderness, in a pot, going through the winters from 05-06 to 18-19, with no special care. My fishing buddy from Nassau County told me it was a Crepe Myrtle. This fall I’ll gently place it in the ground in a good sunny spot. Thank you Mom and Dad, as always ......

[doncat]

All eyes on Dorian, but up this way another great day with cool 60° mornings and low mid 80's  afternoons.

[psv88]

Incredible day today, 82 and glorious breeze 

[psv88]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

They are gorgeous, I was thinking of planting some.  Can they last through bad winters here, like 2010-11?

 

Mine died two winters ago I think it was when we hit -4. Never recovered. 

[winterwarlock]

89 here...push push..might get a sneaky 90 today. Lawns getting toasty here..even the crabgrass is drying out

[winterwarlock]

5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Next Tue/Wed will be the last shot I think. After that things turn cool for a while. 

Even if the 2nd half of September is warm to very warm you would still need a highly anomalous, record breaking pattern to get 90+ by then.

Dont count your chickens

[dWave]

2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

89 here...push push..might get a sneaky 90 today. Lawns getting toasty here..even the crabgrass is drying out

Got to 88 then passing cloudiness cap things off. Down to 86 now

[donsutherland1]

Hurricane Dorian will likely continue to intensify in coming days. Late this weekend, the steering currents could break down leaving Dorian drifting on its approach to Florida. That might give it some opportunity to avoid a destructive landfall. Afterward, it remains uncertain whether Dorian or its remnants will ever have a direct impact on the greater New York City region, though it will very likely lead to rough surf and strong rip currents.

Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat will shift into eastern Europe late this weekend before dissipating.

Select daily records included: Berlevag, Norway: 75°; Carcassonne, France: 97°; Istres, France: 93°; Ivalo, Finland: 72°; Kuusamo, Finland: 72°; Mehamn, Norway: 75°; Montpelier France: 91°; Murmansk, Russia: 72°; Nimes, France: 99° (old record: 88°); Orange, France: 97°; Trieste, Italy: 90°; and, Vadso, Norway: 68°.

The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. That temperature would match what had previously been the warmest monthly temperature on record prior to July 2019. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016.

In addition, Anchorage will set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is near 100%. August would mark the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage.

Moreover, San Francisco will likely experience its warmest August on record and could match its warmest summer on record and perhaps surpassing it by a few hundredths of a degree.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -20.70 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.828.

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. Dorian's impact on the larger synoptic pattern has increased uncertainty for the first 10 days of the month. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half.

September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°.

On August 29, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.107 (RMM). The August 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.949.

Finally, New York City has an implied 76% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

[dWave]

Dorian is up to Cat 4..130 mph

[SACRUS]

8/30

LGA: 89
EWR: 89
TEB: 89
New Bnswk: 88
ACY: 88
PHL: 88
BLM: 87
TTN: 87
NYC: 86
JFK: 85
ISP: 82

[CIK62]

Last day of August averaging 74degs., or about 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +0.3[75.5].      August should end at  +0.4[75.6].

The first week of Sept. is averaging 71.5degs., or about 1deg.  AN.

72.5* here at 6am.

The computer models have struck out with Dorian, and only threat now is to SC/NC.      A change of 300miles (to the N) in a day as to where it would cross the coast.

[bluewave]

This August is another example of less warm is the new cool. Relatively low number of August 90 degree days for the 2010’s this month. JFK hasn’t reached 90 degrees since July 21st.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
2019	4	1
2018	14	0
2017	2	0
2016	13	0
2015	13	0
2014	2	0
2013	3	0
2012	7	0
2011	4	0
2010	11	0

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
2019	5	1
2018	16	0
2017	2	0
2016	10	0
2015	8	0
2014	1	0
2013	1	0
2012	6	0
2011	2	0
2010	11	0

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
2019	1	1
2018	5	0
2017	0	0
2016	7	0
2015	2	0
2014	0	0
2013	0	0
2012	0	0
2011	2	0
2010	4	0

Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
2019	0	1
2018	4	0
2017	0	0
2016	6	0
2015	6	0
2014	0	0
2013	0	0
2012	2	0
2011	2	0
2010	8	0

 

 

 

 

 

 

[binbisso]

Two rather strong cold fronts coming through this week one late Wednesday and one post Dorian. The one after Dorian  looks rather impressive with 0c 8 50s into central New England. Looks like the period From August 20th through the fall Solstice could average well below normal for our area. We'll see how it all plays out but summer was basically one month, July, and one week in August.

[bluewave]

The Euro seasonal from back in March did a nice job with the summer forecast. Warmth along the coasts with cooler in the middle. Really nailed the record heat signal for Alaska.