psv88 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 51 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: have to watch winds on the eastern end of the island. vis sat suggests to me the inverted trof will be located somewhere in suffolk later this afternoon into the evening. if winds shift SE then some localized severe is possible, including brief spin-ups. these are legit convective showers moving in. tops estimated 35-38000' on the heaviest cells. inch/hour+ rates seem likely for brief periods across all of LI. Flood advisory here now and heavy rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: Picked up a quick .50 inch in Wantagh as the radar appears to be underestimating the tropical downpours. Yea deluge up here now with plenty to come 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yea deluge up here now with plenty to come We can see why the 0z Euro made the big jump west with the heavy rain. Wantagh already has .99 and climbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Only 0.24” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: We can see why the 0z Euro made the big jump west with the heavy rain. Wantagh already has .99 and climbing. Yea. Radar doesn’t do these downpours Justice. Yard is completely flooded. Upton did a good job with the flood advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Absolutely pouring. Thunder/lightning as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: Absolutely pouring. Thunder/lightning as well. 2 days ago looked like a beach day, forecast was partly cloudy and only 20% chance of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Even this morning said the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Wantagh over 1.50". I'm close to 1.85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 51 minutes ago, psv88 said: 2 days ago looked like a beach day, forecast was partly cloudy and only 20% chance of rain models hadn't figured out the interaction with the TS/PRE yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Parents in North Merrick got about 3.40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Looks like I got the rain i wanted at home. Not so much on the uws. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 1.25 here and it's still going-15-20 miles west of here close to nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 42 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Parents in North Merrick got about 3.40 Wow. Got about an inch here, maybe a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Nothing but some light drizzle here. And that's only intermittent; not enough to keep the streets wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 A few drops here not even a hundredth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 1.89" in Syosset & 1.39" in Muttontown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 73/65 temp split today with 0.07" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 As Tropical Depression Erin passes offshore, additional showers are likely in parts of New York and New Jersey. Steadier rain is likely across Long Island and parts of New England. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat could last through the current week. Select daily records included: Bergen, Norway: 79°; Billund Lufthavn, Denmark: 84°; Bronnoysund, Norway: 81°; Diepholz, Germany: 91°; Floro, Norway: 79°; Groningen, Netherlands: 88°; Haugesund, Norway: 79° (old record: 68°); Kiruna, Sweden: 75°; Kramfors Flygplats, Sweden: 79°; Kristiansund, Norway: 82°; Meppen, Germany: 90°; Mo I Rana, Norway: 82°; Namsos Lufthavn, Norway: 84° (old record: 72°); Nordholz, Germany: 90°; Norrkoping, Sweden: 82°; Odense, Denmark: 86°; Ostersund Froson, Sweden: 75°; Sandessjoen, Norway: 84° (new August record); Skrydstrup, Denmark: 86°; Soenderborg Lufthavn, Denmark: 82°; Vidsel, Sweden: 79°; and, Wittmundhaven, Germany: 82°.. The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will very likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 96%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -8.19 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.174. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not in necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half. September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 27, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.174 (RMM). The August 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.256. Finally, New York City has an implied 60% probability of having a warmer than normal August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 71 now, matching the high for today. Dew point is 70 now so doesnt feel so fall like anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 75/62 for the day, currently 70/69 and feeling more like an August night. 0.41” today, the heavy rains largely missed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 I plan on getting some pool time in today and tomorrow as we are running out of days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 75degs., or about 3degs. AN. Month to date is +0.2[75.6]. August should end near +0.4[75.6]. All 8 days are averaging 75degs. also, or about 4degs. AN. 67.6* here at 6am. All models indicate we should watch out here near Sept. 6 for Dorian's remnants. Enjoy Labor Day at Daytona Beach this year. Cheap Rates. 50mph winds, 80mph gusts and 12" of rain included Free! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 29, 2019 Author Share Posted August 29, 2019 Staying below 80 for 6 days in a row during August is pretty impressive. Only the 6th time this happened at Newark since 1948. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=42&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&m=aug&yrange=1928-2019&dir=below&var=tmpf&threshold=80&hours=144&dpi=100&_fmt=png 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I plan on getting some pool time in today and tomorrow as we are running out of days Mine is ice cold now after this cooler weather we've had. Hoping for a couple more times in at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 3 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I plan on getting some pool time in today and tomorrow as we are running out of days Hope it's heated. Cant be more than 68-70 degrees at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Hope it's heated. Cant be more than 68-70 degrees at this point. Brian my heater crapped out so I need to get a new one next year , the Solar cover has been on it for a week and it was working pretty well , I will let you guys know the Temp later. Today temp hits 80 and tomorrow hits 85 will help my cause----------soon enough its over for sure and the winter cover will go on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Warmest day in awhile...84 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 29, 2019 Share Posted August 29, 2019 Nice day on beach in Coney Island except for occasional Dust Devils. Easily low 80's at some point. Most bays have no lifeguards already as the foreign students who spent the summer here and locals may have returned to school elsewhere by now. The models have Dorian dilly-dally for nearly 10 days along whole EC before getting here----now as late as the 10th-11th, before I was seeing the 6th-8th. And it does this w/o making one of those big diameter, waste some time loops, and then doubling back to the coast. A slow-motion Hurricane Donna. Doubt if this will occur-----but by watching this one atmospheric feature each day, one can see how bad modeling still is at the +5 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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