donsutherland1 Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 Cooler weather has now overspread the region. This cooler weather will likely last into early next week. In western North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week. Across the Atlantic Ocean, this weekend will see the start of an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures in Europe. Record temperatures will likely be challenged and broken in many locations. This latest round of heat could last through the upcoming week. Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 70%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was 4.19 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.526. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. On August 22, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.123 (RMM). The August 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.106. Finally, New York City has an implied 61% probability of having a warmer than normal August. The implied probabilities for New York City's receiving 50.00" or more precipitation this year are 70% (historical 1869-2018 period) and 80% (1971-2018 period). The least precipitation from August 24-December 31 occurred in 1931 when just 7.65" was recorded. The most was 32.57" in 1983. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 2 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Whatever the reason is it could be a good sign for us. Perhaps the core of the polar vortex will reside on our side of the globe come winter. Please no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 About 20° cooler today( Fri) with high temp of 73°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 72degs., or just NORMAL. Month to date is +1.3[76.9]. August should end about +0.5[75.7]. GFSx has different averages so could be up to +0.9. 65.3* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2019 Author Share Posted August 24, 2019 While this was another very humid August, it’s turning out to be much cooler than last year. So this summer will go into the books as a continuation of the high dewpoint regime since 2016. August....EWR....NYC....LGA 2019.......+1.6.....+1.3.....+2.3.....so far 2018.......+3.4.....+2.9.....+4.7 2017.......-1.8.......-1.2......-0.9 2016......+4.1......+4.0......+5.3 2015......+2.9.....+3.8.......+3.0 2014......-1.3......-0.7........-1.2 2013.....-1.1.......-0.6........-0.5 2012.....+1.8.....+1.5........+2.4 2011.....+1.1.....+0.1........-0.3 2010....+1.9......+2.2.......+2.3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 55 glorious degrees out there now. Yummy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Got down to 63. Feels amazing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 59.8 this morning. Fall like feel outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 1 hour ago, uofmiami said: 59.8 this morning. Fall like feel outside. It's amazing how cool it feels when you're used to heat and especially the high dewpoints. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 62 was my low. 69/50 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 California dreamin weather. 72/55 feels great another great weekend 90% of the weekend and holidays this summer have been dry and nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 15 hours ago, Isotherm said: 15 90F days here, after 4 this week. The period 9/3-9/9 could get quite warm again, with potentially a few more 90F chances. The European heat does always come back to us though not as intense as they've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 As Tom mentioned yesterday warmer times should return the opening week of September as the Western Atlantic Ridge builds back west and heights rise along the east coast. Until then cooler times through Tuesday (8/27) before heading back towards normal Wed (8/28) - Fri (8/30). Outside chance of 90 degrees in the warmer spots labor day weekend (sat 8-31 / mon 9-2) before better chance of more sustained and widespread heat on/around (9/4) to greet the new school year. Tropics the obvious caveat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The European heat does always come back to us though not as intense as they've seen. Shunted south in May and fringed much of August from the massive -NAO ridging. Looks better suited for ridging in early Sep (so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 T-74 , DP-45 , outstanding day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 73/49 bright sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 So did Long Island have a tornado the other night or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 32 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: So did Long Island have a tornado the other night or what? OKX says no! NOUS41 KOKX 231405 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 231815- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 1005 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE ACROSS LONG ISLAND... A line of severe thunderstorms move across Long Island last night. These storms produced tree damage and power outages to portions of the south shores of Eastern Nassau and the western half of Suffolk County. Doppler radar and observational analysis support the damage being consistent with straight line winds and downbursts. There was no evidence of rotation with the storms and no damage surveys are planned. $$ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted August 24, 2019 Share Posted August 24, 2019 Just saw a bunch of geese travel south, winter is coming. I think we can still squeeze some heat early September but it’ll be dry heat so it’ll only be hot in the sun. Can’t wait to be tracking some snow events! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 This morning featured temperatures in the 60s in the major cities of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas and 50s outside the cities. Select low temperatures included: Allentown: 56° (lowest since 8/11: 56°) Bridgeport: 61° (lowest since 8/11: 61°) Islip: 62° (lowest since 8/12: 60°) New York City: 64° (lowest since 8/11: 63°) Newark: 63° (lowest since 8/11: 63°) Philadelphia: 62° (lowest since 6/23: 61°) Poughkeepsie: 52° (lowest since 8/11: 51°) Washington, DC: 64° (lowest since 6/23: 63°) Even cooler readings are possible over the next several days. Some of the guidance suggests that the temperature could fall below 60° in Central Park on Monday morning. The last time the temperature fell below 60° in August in New York City was August 15, 2013 when the temperature fell to 59°. A reading of 60°-61° is far more likely, as the implied probability of a temperature below 60° in Central Park is approximately 25%. The current cool spell will likely last into early next week. In western North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week. Across the Atlantic Ocean, an extended period of above to much above normal temperatures has commenced in Europe. This latest round of heat could last through the upcoming week. Daily record high temperatures included: Agen, France: 95°; Caen, France: 90°; Cherbourg, France: 82°; Edinburgh, UK: 75°; Elista, Russia: 99°; Guernsey, UK: 82°; Jersey, UK: 86°; La Roche-Sur-Yon, France: 91°; Landivislau, France: 82°; and, Nantes, France: 93°. Anchorage is nearing the end of its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.6°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 71%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -7.10 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.094. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. There is a possibility that September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 23, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.237 (RMM). The August 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.123. Finally, New York City has an implied 61% probability of having a warmer than normal August. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 I was at the park today and saw acorns the size of golf balls. That's going to lead to some fat squirrels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 58. Tomorrow night progged lower. First 40s of late summer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 5 hours ago, TriPol said: I was at the park today and saw acorns the size of golf balls. That's going to lead to some fat squirrels. Same in Central Park, massive acorns all over, going begging for lack of enough squirrels. Also very generous seed clusters and berries on the various trees and shrubs. The damp weather we had earlier has yielded a well above average harvest. Migrants will be well fed. Doubt however that it helps predict the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 The last 7 days of August are averaging 73degs., or about 1deg. AN. Month to date is +1.1[76.7]. August should end about +0.6 to +1.0 or near 75.8. 64.5* here at 6am. 70.5* by 11am, with cumulus dotting the sky. EURO WAVE output shows weaker development along coast now than yesterday, but it is a little closer. Down from 25' to 15' at center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 19 hours ago, uofmiami said: OKX says no! NOUS41 KOKX 231405 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179- 231815- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 1005 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE ACROSS LONG ISLAND... A line of severe thunderstorms move across Long Island last night. These storms produced tree damage and power outages to portions of the south shores of Eastern Nassau and the western half of Suffolk County. Doppler radar and observational analysis support the damage being consistent with straight line winds and downbursts. There was no evidence of rotation with the storms and no damage surveys are planned. $$ a microburst then? either way, the damage was a lot more than 60 mph winds produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 Onshorein flow today 71/57 A bit more cloudy than one would like but and otherwise beautiful day. We'll see if any showers are triggered as the ULL pulls away. Models stronger with warmth Fri (8/30) - Sun (9/1) later this week and next weekend (labor day weekend) and delaying the early Sep ridging a bit, more to come if a blip or trend for early Sep. But overall Labor Day weekend looking good from this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 As I was going to the Dutchess County fair yesterday, i noticed the trees starting to change colors. It gets dark around 715pm now Autumn is coming =) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 Any chance NYC can drop below 60 degrees tonight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 As I was going to the Dutchess County fair yesterday, i noticed the trees starting to change colors. It gets dark around 715pm now Autumn is coming =)It still gets dark at 740. Those leaves are always that color. Cmon dude. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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