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August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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I saw the sheet of rain from a high rise in CI, that DRZ1111 referred to.     That was about 5:45pm.        CI had another super heavy rain with peeks of sun from 6:00pm-6:15pm.     Most WU Sites indicated no rain when their gauge is really O.o.O, or not even setup.    Very misleading.    CI station near me had 2", but 0" for the day!     Had to be 0.5" to an 1" during just those 15mins., as visibility was nil with the sun trying to get through all the time---quite eerie.

Went to beach when I became convinced by radar the showers near me  at 12:30pm were headed northeast.

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Parts of the region experienced thunderstorms this evening. With the 0.26" rain that was recorded in Newark, that city's year-to-date precipitation now stands at 40.31" (9.94" above normal). Following tomorrow, several cooler than normal days lie ahead for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Across North America, much above normal temperatures could develop in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week.

Anchorage is poised to experience its warmest summer on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.5°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. There is also an implied 56% probability that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records in Anchorage.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

The SOI was -10.74 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.409. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values.

The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table.

The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. That kind of evolution was shown on the August 19 EPS weeklies. The latest CFSv2 weekly figures are particularly aggressive with warming during the latter part of the second half of the September 1-15 period.

On August 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.101 (RMM). The August 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.201.

Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 65% probability of having a warmer than normal August.

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55 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

No wind and no rain again. I had 15 minutes of very light drizzle early this afternoon but that's it for the last few days. I was looking forward to getting wet this week but that doesn't seem to be in the cards.

Meanwhile, nearly 5" here since Saturday. That can only mean congrats south of 84 this winter. 

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