SnoSki14 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: looks like a fast PAC jet based on that map. If that happens and we get no Atlantic blocking, it's a redux of last year essentially. Well last year was supposed to be a huge winter so I'll take any LR forecast with a grain of salt. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Well last year was supposed to be a huge winter so I'll take any LR forecast with a grain of salt. But all of the indicators are there, we really have it figured out this year, lock it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 2012 redux plz, at least thermally, I couldn’t care less about snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Well last year was supposed to be a huge winter so I'll take any LR forecast with a grain of salt. 24 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: But all of the indicators are there, we really have it figured out this year, lock it up... Salient points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 39 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Salient points Thank you. I’m just impressed someone thinks I have a point as misguided as it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 55 minutes ago, Cfa said: 2012 redux plz, at least thermally, I couldn’t care less about snow. How could you possibly be interested in meteorology and be satisfied with that winter? And I’m not talking about just snow. That was the most boring period of weather i have experienced hands down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 40 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: How could you possibly be interested in meteorology and be satisfied with that winter? And I’m not talking about just snow. That was the most boring period of weather i have experienced hands down Boring but nice and comfortable. It was mild throughout followed by an early (and very warm) spring. We haven’t had that in a while. If we had a more active version of 2012, I wouldn’t mind. I just want it to be mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 There is growing model support for the possible development of much above normal warmth in the Pacific Northwest and western Canada during the middle and latter part of next week. The implied probability that Anchorage will record its warmest summer on record is near 100%. At present, based on the sensitivity analysis, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.4°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. There is also an implied 53% probability that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. Anchorage has had 5 previous summers with mean temperatures of 60.0° or above. Four (80%) occurred 2000 or later and 3 (60%) occurred 2010 or later. Those summers were: 1977: 60.2° 2004: 60.2° 2013: 60.1° 2015: 60.2° 2016: 60.8° The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -13.90 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.300. A general tendency for blocking could persist into the last week of August. By that time, the AO could move toward neutral to positive values. This evolution of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer. Since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. The latest guidance is in line with August's anomaly falling within that range. However, some uncertainty has increased concerning the start of September. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. Right now, with 1993 remaining the baseline case, a plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. That kind of evolution was shown on the August 19 EPS weeklies. On August 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.204 (RMM). The August 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.120. Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 64% probability of having a warmer than normal August. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 I did see many pros calling for a mild winter last year but with above normal snowfall because recently it really has only taken one major storm to put us there. Last year just turned out more wet here, but you did not have to travel very far at all to get above normal snowfall. Looking at the available indicators now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very similar winter, but maybe a touch milder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Thank you. I’m just impressed someone thinks I have a point as misguided as it may be. I’m here for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There really isn’t a way to predict the winter. It’s just matter of guessing and going with your gut. I have a feeling we’re going to get bombarded with snow and feet of it. I just want a 36 hour blizzard that drops 40 inches in the city itself and I’ll be happy on a Friday night into Sunday morning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Ffs Tony 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 46 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There really isn’t a way to predict the winter. It’s just matter of guessing and going with your gut. I have a feeling we’re going to get bombarded with snow and feet of it. I just want a 36 hour blizzard that drops 40 inches in the city itself and I’ll be happy on a Friday night into Sunday morning It should be interesting to see how the CPK measure crew deal with Ragnarok. As always ..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 I want us to hit 80f in Feb again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 I want a severe weather outbreak.... in January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: I want a severe weather outbreak.... in January I forgot what year it was but it was defitnitly early 2000s, in April. There was a heavy Tstorm squall with temps in the 50s and the temp instantly plummeted and the rain changed to heavy snow. One of the most surreal wx moments I've witnessed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 8/20 PHL: 92 TEB: 90 LGA: 89 New Bnswk: 89 NYC: 88 ACY: 88 ISP: 88 TTN: 88 EWR: 87 JFK: 86 BLM: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 74.5degs., or 1.5degs AN. Month to date is +1.2[77.0]. Should be +1.3[76.3] by the 29th. 76.6* here at 6am with Haze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 21, 2019 Author Share Posted August 21, 2019 The Atlantic finally becoming more active. Chantal is one of the furthest north developing tropical cyclones. But not a surprise given the warmest SST departures further north off the East Coast like we have seen in recent years. https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1164009256544133123 Chantal was named at 40.2°N - the highest latitude named storm formation location for an Atlantic tropical cyclone since Alberto in 1988 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Most of the severe threat should be confined to New England today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Sorry about the delay. July 2019 was Boston's warmest month on record. The mean temperature was 78.7°. The previous July and monthly record was 78.0°, which was set in 1983. 1983 was amazing for both temps and humidity, I wonder if we're going to see summers like that become more common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Atlantic finally becoming more active. Chantal is one of the furthest north developing tropical cyclones. But not a surprise given the warmest SST departures further north off the East Coast like we have seen in recent years. https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1164009256544133123 Chantal was named at 40.2°N - the highest latitude named storm formation location for an Atlantic tropical cyclone since Alberto in 1988 One of these years we'll see a TC develop right in our own backward and curve westward right into C NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 8 hours ago, dmillz25 said: I want a severe weather outbreak.... in January We had severe wx in our area a couple weeks after the blizzard of 1996.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 8 hours ago, SRRTA22 said: I forgot what year it was but it was defitnitly early 2000s, in April. There was a heavy Tstorm squall with temps in the 50s and the temp instantly plummeted and the rain changed to heavy snow. One of the most surreal wx moments I've witnessed I think Long Island was hit by a tornado in January... one of those early morning warm front deals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The EPS is indicating the potential for more tropical development under the big high in about 5 days near the Carolinas. I was thinking we would be in a higher than normal likelihood for a TC near the coast with that high to our NE. Chris, do you have any info on a microburst hitting Jim Thorpe/Penn Forest township in E PA and how strong the winds might have been? Nothing was on the news, even there, but my sister lives there and she said a ton of trees came down on her property last Thursday night and there was no power for 10 hours. The trees that came down were large oaks that were over 100 years old, but the damage was isolated to her side of the street. There was no damage on the other side of the street or at lower elevations (she lives on a mountain that overlooks Jim Thorpe.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We had severe wx in our area a couple weeks after the blizzard of 1996.... Well I was 6 when that happened so I don’t remember that lol. I vaguely remember the blizzard of 96 tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Well I was 6 when that happened so I don’t remember that lol. I vaguely remember the blizzard of 96 tho. It was great but all the flooding rain that happened after it caused massive problems including roof collapses and power outages. I was amazed to see how quickly the pattern changed but equally amazed to see it go back to cold and snowy at the end of the month! A month after the big blizzard we had our next big snowstorm of a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 1983 was amazing for both temps and humidity, I wonder if we're going to see summers like that become more common. I suspect that such summers will gradually become more common within a decade or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 hour ago, NycStormChaser said: Most of the severe threat should be confined to New England today. I strongly disagree with this. Given good low level directional shear and mid-upper speed shear, any storms that stay discrete will have good chance of developing rotating updraft. NE is going to have more storm coverage but also more mergers and a quicker conversion to a linear mode. I think the tail-end cell has the best chance of producing significant severe, as opposed to the garden variety wind they’ll be getting up north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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