LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 37 knot gust at the my harbor buoy. Never had drop of rain on the uws. Still super hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 44 minutes ago, Cfa said: Very close CTG strikes all around me, looking like flash grenades. My cue to go indoors. Best storm of the year for me, though the bar for that title was on the ground. The microburst would’ve been #1 but I missed it. Yea this was a nice surprise. Storm blew up as it came onshore. Didn’t see that coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 19, 2019 Share Posted August 19, 2019 Parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas experienced record warmth today. Highlights included: Baltimore: 99° (old record: 97°, 1914); Boston: 95° (old record: 92°, 1906, 1966, and 1983); Norfolk: 96° (tied record set in 1912 and tied in 1954); Richmond: 99° (old record: 98°, 1914 and 2002); Sterling, VA: 95° (tied record set in 2002); and, Washington, DC: 98° (tied record set in 2002). Anchorage, which came off its warmest month on record, remains on track to record its warmest summer on record. At present, based on the sensitivity analysis, Anchorage will finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.0°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. There is also a chance that 2019 could set a new August record for highest mean temperature on record. If so, that would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around August 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.33°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +10.86 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was --1.006. A general tendency for blocking could persist into the last week of August. By that time, the AO could move toward neutral to positive values. This evolution of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. On August 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.128 (RMM). The August 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.751. Finally, based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 61% probability of having a warmer than normal August. In terms of receiving 50" or more precipitation, New York City's implied probabilities are 65% (1869-2018 historical period) and 77% (1971-2018 period). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 No storms out this way, but an excellent sunset. Too humid for my liking though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 8/19 EWR: 94 LGA: 93 TEB: 93 New Bwnswk: 93 PHL: 93 BLM: 92 ACY: 92 TTN: 92 NYC: 90 ISP: 86 JFK: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 From the looks of the pattern and my model reading the heat is not done... after Thursday we’ll have some nice days but at least the potential is there for more heat at the end of August and beginning of September but this heat will not be accompanied by high humidity, it looks to be the dry heat effect instead which would be good news. Have a good night folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 High for the day yesterday was 94 here. Current temp 75/DP 71/RH 87% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 75degs., or 2degs. AN. Month to date is +0.9[76.7]. Should be +1.2[76.2] by the 28th. 76.8* here at 6am. 80.6* by 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 No big heat or humidity for a while after this week. The WAR and Bermuda high gets replaced by the high over SE Canada. So we get into a NE to E flow from the Canadian Maritimes. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: No big heat or humidity for a while after this week. The WAR and Bermuda high gets replaced by the high over SE Canada. So we get into a NE to E flow from the Canadian Maritimes. There is heat coming again it won’t be as intense and as humid but look out late August early September some 90’s are possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said: There is heat coming again it won’t be as intense and as humid but look out late August early September some 90’s are possible Doesn’t look like anything too impressive at this time as the high will still be east of New England near the end of the month. Maybe a few warmer days before the next cold front and high moves in first week of September. But September is usually good for a few more 90 degree days. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 My timelapse from yesterdays thunderstorm as it moved across southern Brooklyn and Queens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: Doesn’t look like anything too impressive at this time as the high will still be east of New England near the end of the month. Maybe a few warmer days before the next cold front and high moves in first week of September. But September is usually good for a few more 90 degree days. The euro weeklies were crazy warm for September-will have to see if they were over-done.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Pending on clouds on Thu 58/22) 850's again approach 19-22c so another chance for mid 90s with sunshine. We'll see if the warmer spots can grab 90 today even with the NE flow. 11AM Roundup PHL: 86 ACY: 86 TEB: 85 New Bnswk: 85 ISP: 84 JFK: 84 EWR: 84 NYC: 82 TTN: 82 LGA: 81 BLM: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 2 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: There is heat coming again it won’t be as intense and as humid but look out late August early September some 90’s are possible Far out there but do see some transient ridging possible with some warmer/heat transport on/around Fri-Sun (labor day weekend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saberonyx Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Good feeling day today with that dew point down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 20, 2019 Author Share Posted August 20, 2019 43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The euro weeklies were crazy warm for September-will have to see if they were over-done.... It looks we’ll probably finish August with under 10 days reaching 90 degrees. The Septembers that followed this pattern since 2010 usually featured 0 to 3 days reaching 90 degrees at Newark. Missing count column has the number of September 90 degree days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 2019 3 2018 14 4 2017 2 3 2016 13 5 2015 13 5 2014 2 3 2013 3 1 2012 7 2 2011 4 0 2010 11 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: No big heat or humidity for a while after this week. The WAR and Bermuda high gets replaced by the high over SE Canada. So we get into a NE to E flow from the Canadian Maritimes. Classic onshore pattern, will last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: The euro weeklies were crazy warm for September-will have to see if they were over-done.... You could've made an accurate long distance forecast for the past year by looking at the Euro Weeklies and predicting the exact opposite. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 For what it's worth - The Old Farmer's Almanac appears to be forecasting another non-winter in the Northeast for the second consecutive year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 ^^^ I like the icky weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 52 minutes ago, Isotherm said: For what it's worth - The Old Farmer's Almanac appears to be forecasting another non-winter in the Northeast for the second consecutive year. Sign me up for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 56 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: You could've made an accurate long distance forecast for the past year by looking at the Euro Weeklies and predicting the exact opposite. I agree-they were horrid last winter. I certainly look at them based on past successes, but it's only one of many tools.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 52 minutes ago, Isotherm said: For what it's worth - The Old Farmer's Almanac appears to be forecasting another non-winter in the Northeast for the second consecutive year. looks like a fast PAC jet based on that map. If that happens and we get no Atlantic blocking, it's a redux of last year essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Models still don't look too enthused about any widespread shower, t storm activity next couple of days prior to cold frontal passage....kinda surprised with all the heat and humidity this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 15 minutes ago, doncat said: Models still don't look too enthused about any widespread shower, t storm activity next couple of days prior to cold frontal passage....kinda surprised with all the heat and humidity this week. I would think some pulse type storms in the usual places 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 if the kewr asos were actually in newark it would be in the 90's right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 On 8/1/2019 at 12:06 PM, LibertyBell said: Don, looks like Boston had their hottest July on record? 78.5 avg temp? Sorry about the delay. July 2019 was Boston's warmest month on record. The mean temperature was 78.7°. The previous July and monthly record was 78.0°, which was set in 1983. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 89 #9, this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: looks like a fast PAC jet based on that map. If that happens and we get no Atlantic blocking, it's a redux of last year essentially. If the previous Fast PAC Jet recurs, I hope the North East, Mid Atlantic zones and the continental shelf waters are on the pill. as always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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