bluewave Posted August 13, 2019 Author Share Posted August 13, 2019 On 8/13/2019 at 6:57 PM, Rtd208 said: Well if it doesn't we will be tracking heavy rainstorms with 40 degree temps. Expand Plenty of unknowns concerning next winter at this time. Will the raging Pacific jet relax? Will the record summer -NAO extend into winter? What will happen with ENSO? Will the amped up MJO continue for another winter? How will the extreme Arctic summer warmth and low sea ice impact the fall and winter circulation? How will the various record breaking SST patches evolve and impact the fall and winter pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 On 8/13/2019 at 7:18 PM, bluewave said: Plenty of unknowns concerning next winter at this time. Will the raging Pacific jet relax? Will the record summer -NAO extend into winter? What will happen with ENSO? Will the amped up MJO continue for another winter? How will the extreme Arctic summer warmth and low sea ice impact the fall and winter circulation? How will the various record breaking SST blobs evolve and impact the fall and winter Patrern? Expand As always, many questions to be answered, it should make for some good conversation over the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 February always delivers, for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Big bust on the rainfall forecasts also....for a pretty large area, not just the usual convective highs and lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 On 8/13/2019 at 8:09 PM, Cfa said: February always delivers, for better or worse. Expand The last two have been snowfall duds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 On 8/13/2019 at 8:24 PM, doncat said: Big bust on the rainfall forecasts also....for a pretty large area, not just the usual convective highs and lows. Expand Agreed, this ones a bust. I just broke out the hoses and started watering in case tonight doesn’t deliver. I would take .25” at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 On 8/13/2019 at 8:39 PM, Snowshack said: The last two have been snowfall duds Expand I should’ve said late winter / early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Torrential downpours and street flooding here in wildwood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 It’s amazing that an event can be so incredibly poorly forecast. If this were a winter storm this thread would be 50 pages of weenie suicides Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 On 8/13/2019 at 10:46 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s amazing that an event can be so incredibly poorly forecast. If this were a winter storm this thread would be 50 pages of weenie suicides You should have seen may 20th when I was chasing in Oklahoma. It was a high risk day by the spc. We saw a tornado but the high risk did not come close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 I guess it can't really be less active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 8/13/2019 at 10:46 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: It’s amazing that an event can be so incredibly poorly forecast. If this were a winter storm this thread would be 50 pages of weenie suicides Expand With the rain amounts that were being forecasted( general 1-2" with several more in spots) I really only see a small area along the southern NJ coast where a few spots broke 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 We may actually have more storms tomorrow morning than we did today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 8/14/2019 at 1:21 AM, NycStormChaser said: We may actually have more storms tomorrow morning than we did today. Expand That would be great. I was really banking on this rain event. When your responsible for the horticulture of a college it’s definitely a stressor for myself and the plants. I had to frantically water all the planters and did not have time for the terraces. Just an unbelievably bad forecast. I thought worst case was .5” and ended up getting. .03”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Could see Sunday being sneaky hot with the Euro forecasting 850's near 19-21C, could see some over performing heat in an otherwise week and half of under performing heat. Beyond there looks warm as the western Atlantic Ridge builds in but continued wet especially with a weakness under the ridge towards the Mississippi valley and any tropical formation...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 0.06 at FRG, incredible short term bust, wow! 0.02 at LGA, 0.07 at the park, 0.07 at JFK, looks like a goose egg at EWR lol...wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 77/71 temp split here yesterday, with 0.04" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or about 3.5degs. AN. Month to date is -0.1[75.9]. Should be +1.3[75.4] by the 22nd. 75 4* here at 6am. Above Normal, but boring pattern. Remember clouds, rain, and surface winds could prevent the potential +3 to +7 period from fully happening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 8/13/2019 at 8:39 PM, Snowshack said: The last two have been snowfall duds Expand The ice storms last winter in Feb and March were significant. More of an impact than snow would have been that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Baby storm heading for the city with some lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 8/14/2019 at 3:31 AM, psv88 said: 0.06 at FRG, incredible short term bust, wow! 0.02 at LGA, 0.07 at the park, 0.07 at JFK, looks like a goose egg at EWR lol...wow... Expand A stunningly huge bust. This shows how far we still have to go with forecasting. The equivalent of 12-18” of snow and getting a dusting. And another squeeze play today with rains to our north and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2019 Author Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 8/14/2019 at 12:31 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: A stunningly huge bust. This shows how far we still have to go with forecasting. The equivalent of 12-18” of snow and getting a dusting. And another squeeze play today with rains to our north and south Expand Depends on the model. The Euro shifted the heaviest rains further to our south after The Sunday runs. It had very little for us by the Monday evening run. The upgraded GFS really struggled especially from 4-5 days out. It had the low cutting through upstate New York. Euro was always further south closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 8/14/2019 at 12:31 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: A stunningly huge bust. This shows how far we still have to go with forecasting. The equivalent of 12-18” of snow and getting a dusting. And another squeeze play today with rains to our north and south Expand Yeah I would not call it a bust to be honest. If the models DID NOT correct themselves leading up to yesterday then it would be a bust in my opinion. As others said the euro picked up on this. The NAM and the HRRR also picked up on it monday night as well. By yesterday morning the writing was on the wall before the event even started. The models are only tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 8/14/2019 at 2:09 AM, SACRUS said: Could see Sunday being sneaky hot with the Euro forecasting 850's near 19-21C, could see some over performing heat in an otherwise week and half of under performing heat. Beyond there looks warm as the western Atlantic Ridge builds in but continued wet especially with a weakness under the ridge towards the Mississippi valley and any tropical formation...... Expand 00z ECMWF now indicates a fairly substantial heat wave, with 90s for most Sunday-Friday of next week. WAR rebuilds with geopotential heights of 591-94dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 8/13/2019 at 7:18 PM, bluewave said: Plenty of unknowns concerning next winter at this time. Will the raging Pacific jet relax? Will the record summer -NAO extend into winter? What will happen with ENSO? Will the amped up MJO continue for another winter? How will the extreme Arctic summer warmth and low sea ice impact the fall and winter circulation? How will the various record breaking SST patches evolve and impact the fall and winter pattern? Expand I do think all that warm water around Greenland will allow for more blocking than we've seen. Looks like a +PDO as well. Pacific firehouse could still be a problem though strong blocking periods could offset that somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 .05 with the shower that just went through. Matched yesterdays total haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 8/14/2019 at 1:16 PM, NycStormChaser said: Yeah I would not call it a bust to be honest. If the models DID NOT correct themselves leading up to yesterday then it would be a bust in my opinion. As others said the euro picked up on this. The NAM and the HRRR also picked up on it monday night as well. By yesterday morning the writing was on the wall before the event even started. The models are only tools. Expand Regardless of what models showed, every pro forecast was way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 8/14/2019 at 1:24 PM, SnoSki14 said: I do think all that warm water around Greenland will allow for more blocking than we've seen. Looks like a +PDO as well. Pacific firehouse could still be a problem though strong blocking periods could offset that somewhat. Expand The water near / immediately south of Greenland is only about 10-13 degrees Celsius, so it's neither objectively warm, nor is it sufficiently warm to possess the available energy to act as a forcing agent in and of itself. It's possible that it can act as a feedback agent, but if other atmospheric drivers supersede, they will mediate circulation structure unpropitious for blocking. The notion that water of a rather diminutive temperature can act as a controlling modulator of the pattern is tenuous in my view. Again, it's a factor, but on the list of what I would examine, tertiary. Edit: also note that the warmer than normal water south of Greenland was almost entirely forced by the z500 pattern the past three months, via higher geopotential heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 On 8/14/2019 at 1:22 PM, Isotherm said: 00z ECMWF now indicates a fairly substantial heat wave, with 90s for most Sunday-Friday of next week. WAR rebuilds with geopotential heights of 591-94dm. Expand that is an impressive ridge bridge over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 14, 2019 Share Posted August 14, 2019 Oh hey thunderstorm, pouring here in white plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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