Isotherm Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Most will finish JJA with temperature departures of +1 to +2, via a normal June, very hot July, and slightly warmer than normal August. However, for posterity, those departures will not impart the entire story of this summer -- that is -- very tropical-esque humidity from approximately June 25th through early August, then again for a week in the latter part of August. We saw protracted high dew points this summer, and spasmodically coupled with high ambient temperatures [see, July], yielding exceptionally elevated heat indices. Hence, this summer will be remembered as another very humid one, warmer than normal, but not very hot in the multi-month sense [though 1 month was very hot]. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 21 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Most will finish JJA with temperature departures of +1 to +2, via a normal June, very hot July, and slightly warmer than normal August. However, for posterity, those departures will not impart the entire story of this summer -- that is -- very tropical-esque humidity from approximately June 25th through early August, then again for a week in the latter part of August. We saw protracted high dew points this summer, and spasmodically coupled with high ambient temperatures [see, July], yielding exceptionally elevated heat indices. Hence, this summer will be remembered as another very humid one, warmer than normal, but not very hot in the multi-month sense [though 1 month was very hot]. Yes agree...My station had normal Temps in June and Aug will be close to normal...July of course was hot, no doubt. But as you mentioned the high dew points on several occasions stand out. Weather station looking good Tom! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 27, 2019 Author Share Posted August 27, 2019 Good thing this isn’t a winter snowfall forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Beautiful day. Quite warm in the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Good thing this isn’t a winter snowfall forecast. That would harsh. Hopefully we can get that to spread west to keep things relatively wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That would harsh. Hopefully we can get that to spread west to keep things relatively wet. Not happening...new NAM is a drencher for Eastern NE. Screw zone over NYC with the front's rain NW and the inverted trough rains east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: Not happening...new NAM is a drencher for Eastern NE. Screw zone over NYC with the front's rain NW and the inverted trough rains east I wouldn’t say it’s a given. We have seen the models blow precip forecasts lately time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I wouldn’t say it’s a given. We have seen the models blow precip forecasts lately time and time again. Would agree. I do think there is a screw zone, where it sets up remains to be seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Beautiful day for a hike through Caumsett State Park on the north shore of Suffolk. First hike I’ve gone on in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Perfect weather 72 degrees under partly cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 71°was the best we could do today here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 27, 2019 Author Share Posted August 27, 2019 Only the 5th August since 2000 at Newark with 5 consecutive days under 80 degrees. 2019 2017 2007 2004 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 Are all these warm Autumn forecasts going to bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 27, 2019 Share Posted August 27, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Following the coolest air mass since last June, temperatures began moderating today. In coming days, readings will return to near or just above normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Much above normal temperatures covered parts of the West. Records included: Aurora, OR: 100°; Eugene, OR: 99°; Hoquiam, WA: 92°; Mount Shasta, CA: 98°; Newport, OR: 86°; Portland, OR: 98°; and, Roseburg, OR: 101°. Medford, OR had reached a near record 105° as of 5 pm PDT. Across the Atlantic Ocean, Europe continues to experience record-breaking warmth. This latest round of heat could last through the current week. Select daily records included: Amsterdam: 90° (old record: 80°); Antwerp, Belgium: 93°; De Kooy, Netherlands: 86° (old record: 78°); Deelen, Netherlands: 91°; Diepholz, Germany: 91°; Eindhoven, Netherlands: 93°; Esbjerg, Denmark: 84°; Gilze en Rijen, Netherlands: 93°; Goteborg, Sweden: 81°; Groningen, Netherlands: 91° (old record: 79°); Karup, Denmark: 86° (new August record); Leeuwarden, Netherlands: 90° (old record: 78°); London-Heathrow: 91°; Malmo, Sweden: 86°; Meppen, Germany: 91°; Mildenhall, UK: 90° (old record: 79°); Northolt, UK: 91° (old record: 81°); Orsta-Volda, Norway: 82°; Rotterdam, Netherlands: 90°; Stansted, UK: 90° (old record: 79°); Vlieland, Netherlands: 86° (old record: 74°); Volkel, Netherlands: 91°; Wattisham, UK: 88° (old record: 77°); and, Woensdrecht, Netherlands: 88° (old record: 77°). The warmest summer on record is concluding in Anchorage. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Anchorage will likely finish summer 2019 with a mean temperature near 62.7°. The summer record is 60.8°, which was set in 2016. In addition, Anchorage will very likely set a new August record high mean temperature. The implied probability for its warmest August on record is 89%. That would be the third consecutive monthly record set this year. No single year holds three consecutive monthly records (cold or warm), much less during the same season, in Anchorage. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around August 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are in place in Region 3.4 with neutral-cool conditions in place in Region 1+2. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance continues to show the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was -1.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.421. A general tendency for blocking could persist through the remainder of August with perhaps some fluctuations to positive values, as is currently underway. The AO has averaged -1.062 for August. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record is on the table. The MJO's recent high-amplitude passage through Phase 4 during the August 5-15 period has been followed by a range of solutions in the September 1-15 period during past cases. The coolest was 2001 with a mean temperature of 70.7° in New York City. The warmest was 1983 with a mean temperature of 77.2° in New York City. The 1981-2010 base normal for the September 1-15 period is 71.8°. A plausible outcome could see a few cooler than normal to near normal days during the first week of September followed by warming that would result in a warmer than normal September 1-15 average temperature. The second half of the first week of September appears to offer one chance of above to much above normal readings. The second half of the month could be warmer relative to normal (not in necessarily in absolute terms) than the first half. September 2019 could mark the fifth consecutive year of a 70.0° or higher monthly mean temperature in Central Park. The current 30-year period (1989-2018) is the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 69.0°. The most recent 10-year period (2009-2018) is also the warmest on record for September with a mean temperature of 70.1°. On August 26, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.257 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.189. Finally, New York City has an implied 55% probability of having a warmer than normal August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Gfs para a.k.a. legacy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs para a.k.a. legacy 6z Tropical models have shifted more esst and look like the GFS Quote Edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 The last 4 days of August are averaging 74degs., or 2degs. AN. Month to date is +0.4[75.8]. August should end at +0.3[75.5]. 69.0* here at 6am. DORIAN to smash NYC Sept. 04-05? So says the GEM/JMA. EURO looks like it wants to loop it. GFS let's it get away by the 5th. 12z and 06ZGFS completely different after hour 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Radar trends look to favor the well east solutions for today's rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 6z Tropical models have shifted more esst and look like the GFS Quote Edit Starting to pack my bags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Nhc now forecasting Dorian to be a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Radar trends look to favor the well east solutions for today's rains. This area does look like it is gonna clip most of Brooklyn queens and east I think for the next 3 hours or so. I’m not sure if it might weaken though as the forcing exits east with the low center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This area does look like it is gonna clip most of Brooklyn queens and east I think for the next 3 hours or so. I’m not sure if it might weaken though as the forcing exits east with the low center Point and click mentions severe storms out in Suffolk. I’m not seeing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Radar trends look to favor the well east solutions for today's rains. Yep, although it is slightly west of those super sharp cutoff runs from yesterday. I’ll take the rain at home but would rather have it on the uws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 just had a sprinkle that wet the ground...yesterday I saw a few drops...very humid out now...75 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Couple of quick showers here-dewpoints closing in on 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 First heavy downpour of the day here in SW Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 56 minutes ago, psv88 said: Point and click mentions severe storms out in Suffolk. I’m not seeing it have to watch winds on the eastern end of the island. vis sat suggests to me the inverted trof will be located somewhere in suffolk later this afternoon into the evening. if winds shift SE then some localized severe is possible, including brief spin-ups. these are legit convective showers moving in. tops estimated 35-38000' on the heaviest cells. inch/hour+ rates seem likely for brief periods across all of LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2019 Share Posted August 28, 2019 Showers here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 Picked up a quick .50 inch in Wantagh as the radar appears to be underestimating the tropical downpours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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