Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 I am curious to see what the SPC will do in the new day 1 outlook in a couple of hours. I think they will hold serve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 I am curious to see what the SPC will do in the new day 1 outlook in a couple of hours. I think they will hold serve.I think they tighten up the northern extent of the marginal and slight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 1 minute ago, NycStormChaser said: 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am curious to see what the SPC will do in the new day 1 outlook in a couple of hours. I think they will hold serve. I think they tighten up the northern extent of the marginal and slight Well if tomorrow fizzles out I think it will be the first time in a while where an event become weaker as we moved closer, lets hope we don't start that trend for the fall and winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Are you talking about just the severe threat or the heavy rain threat as well?? The nam went super dry 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Severe threat over. Good call @forkyfork https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 2 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: I am curious to see what the SPC will do in the new day 1 outlook in a couple of hours. I think they will hold serve. I think they tighten up the northern extent of the marginal and slight Looks like we were both wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 I am actually a bit surprised Mt.Holly is keeping the Flash Flood Watch in effect although they have reduced the localized higher amounts from 5" down to 3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 7 hours ago, forkyfork said: tomorrow's threat looks dead to me. lots of debris and the low has been trending weaker and weaker yeah this went down the drain quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Just as a side note. Even though the potential for severe weather/heavy rain has diminished the NWS does mention there is still considerable uncertainty on how things will evolve today. Just something to keep in mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 77degs., or about 2.5degs. AN. Month to date is +0.0[76.0]. Should be +1.0[76.4] by the 21st. 75.0* here at 6am. 77.5* by Noon Not much room for temperatures to vary over the next 15 days overall. I would say 82-89 on the highs, with good sunshine and favorable winds at the surface: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 13, 2019 Author Share Posted August 13, 2019 Not that big a surprise the low track shifted south with the strongest -NAO of the summer. But we still have to watch for heavy rains north of the low like we are seeing now. Current radar New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Looks like we were both wrong.What do you mean? They did cut back on the northern extent of the slight and marginal. The writing was on the wall yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Talk about suppressed today-all that rain that was supposed to come through here on models yesterday looks like it’s headed for lower VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Last 6 runs of the nam. We were really only in the bullseye once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Wow. Pretty big bust. Good thing I water the lawn all weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Just now, psv88 said: Wow. Pretty big bust. Good thing I water the lawn all weekend. I’m happy for the bust. Still have my dirt pit for a backyard and I don’t want mud flows. Waiting on sprinkler guy and then sod to go down. Once OKX put their tweet out showing 2” qpf for area, you knew the models would back off. Never fails with them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Wow. Pretty big bust. Good thing I water the lawn all weekend. maybe try planting some native grasses so you don't waste so much water. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Thunderstorms and flash flooding aren't out of the question today for our area. Wait until the event is over before calling a bust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Typical summer day on the south shore. On the wrong side of everything. Too far north for convection and too far south for good stratiform rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Raining now in wildwood 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Record breaking 590 dm ridge over Bering Sea will pump the WAR by the weekend. Looks like great beach weather without the torridness and peak sun of July. Some low 90s likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 2 hours ago, purduewx80 said: maybe try planting some native grasses so you don't waste so much water. Or just let it go dormant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 5 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: 11 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Looks like we were both wrong. What do you mean? They did cut back on the northern extent of the slight and marginal. The writing was on the wall yesterday To me "tighten up" would have been more of a slight reduction on the northern extent between the slight and marginal. This was a substantial cut back of the marginal, slight and enhanced risk areas. But I see what you meant, we are just seeing "tighten up" a little differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 3 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: Thunderstorms and flash flooding aren't out of the question today for our area. Wait until the event is over before calling a bust. I doubt that even happens at this point but still possible. I am surprised that Mt.Holly held onto the Flash Flood Watch for some of their counties including mine but the watch area was reduced from yesterday. I think the watch will be canceled when the afternoon update comes out IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Today was a pretty big bust actually pending what happens later. Thought we'd be too far north but not this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 I doubt that even happens at this point but still possible. I am surprised that Mt.Holly held onto the Flash Flood Watch for some of their counties including mine but the watch area was reduced from yesterday. I think the watch will be canceled when the afternoon update comes out IMO.Agreed. It should be canceled at this point. The models handled this setup poorly. Unfortunately it happens from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: 43 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I doubt that even happens at this point but still possible. I am surprised that Mt.Holly held onto the Flash Flood Watch for some of their counties including mine but the watch area was reduced from yesterday. I think the watch will be canceled when the afternoon update comes out IMO. Agreed. It should be canceled at this point. The models handled this setup poorly. Unfortunately it happens from time to time. And there it is, Flash Flood Watch canceled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 13, 2019 Author Share Posted August 13, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like great beach weather without the torridness and peak sun of July. Some low 90s likely. Same old story. Raging Pacific jet pumps the WAR. Looks like another record breaking jet streak coming up. Hopefully, we can see some relaxation of this regime by next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 Suns out on the uws. Hopefully we can destabilize a little. Really hoping for at some rain this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 13, 2019 Share Posted August 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Same old story. Raging Pacific jet pumps the WAR. Looks like another record breaking jet streak coming up. Hopefully, we can see some relaxation of this regime by next winter. Well if it doesn't we will be tracking heavy rainstorms with 40 degree temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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