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August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


bluewave
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Really impressive to get two consecutive years with so many measurable rainfall days through August 9th. The only rainfall extreme that hasn’t occurred for us yet is a 10”+ day. We saw this in August 2014 at Islip and Long Beach in August 2011. But there is still time for something like that to happen with the right set up during this run.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Jan 1 to Aug 9
Missing Count
1 2018-08-09 98 0
- 1950-08-09 98 0
2 2019-08-09 97 0
3 1916-08-09 96 0
4 2003-08-09 95 0
- 1938-08-09 95 0
5 2008-08-09 93 0
- 1996-08-09 93 0
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As I continue to travel overseas, this is a short extension and update to my discussion just before the start of August. So far, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas are off to a warmer than normal start to August.

 

One constant that has simplified things over the past two months is persistent blocking. Blocking will like persist in general through the next two to three weeks.  At the same time, the ENSO evolution has continued toward neutral-warm conditions in Region 3.4.

 

Nevertheless, there has been a significant change. Today, the SOI reached +22.94. During the most recent 10-year period, three years saw the SOI rise to +20.00 or above in August: 2008, 2010, and 2017. All three saw one or more 90-degree readings in September (two during the first week). Two (2010 and 2017) saw September wind up with a mean temperature of 70.0 degrees or above in New York City.

 

As I visit the Great Wall of China in coming days, I will be thinking of something else that has seemingly survived the test of time: the ongoing blocking. Nevertheless, nothing is permanent if one extends the time horizon to sufficient length. Perhaps the big reversal in the SOI may be a precursor for a larger set of circumstances that could fray the blocking toward month’s end and then give rise to a nascent positive AO/NAO regime just in time to negate the impact of gradually lengthening wave lengths. That development would further reinforce the idea of a warm September consistent with the 1993 base case.

 

For now, a period of near normal to somewhat cooler than normal temperatures is imminent. After mid-month warmth should begin to return. The potential for much warmer than normal temperatures during the last week of August and first week of September exists.

 

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The forecast seems to have shifted. There is a consensus that the system will almost certainly come on Tuesday. When and how much, is still in question.

The GFS shows a day of light rain as the system remains well to our north, but we’re still on the edge. The Euro shows a more direct hit. 

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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really nice period coming up, very comfortable.

Mid August through Oct 1st has some of the nicest weather of the year. September's an awesome beach month if you have the time. 

What happens after oct 1st

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42 minutes ago, doncat said:

86/66 temp split today with 0.18" of rain...No 90° days here yet this month and none in the foreseeable future...Month has been pretty close to normal temp wise so far here in surburbia.

Monday looks like the next shot but may be more 88, 89's with the recent deluge.  Ridging with models now also hinting at surging 850s on/around 8/17.

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5 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

4 straight days with a thunderstorm here. Talk about Florida like

Yeah, backyard is looking like a out of control rain forest here. Very lush. Last 14 days total precip, Bx Mesonet is 2nd wettest in the state.1217864698_14dayprecip.thumb.PNG.32f683f1100c35c271e187d64355d183.PNG 

 

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