NYCweatherNOW Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 7 hours ago, weathermedic said: Dew point 72 here. Feels sticky to me. Yes it was a little sticky but much better than last year. I’m sure you guys remember last year, it was humid and hot every day almost. It was the worst summer ever. Very nice out right now 73 and partly cloudy. The rain that was supposed to come in today disappeared completely. It’s been rather dry this summer with less humidity which entails a nice summer in my opinion, plenty of beach days and amazing bbq weather. Enjoy your day guys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 2degs. AN. 73.5* here at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 3, 2019 Author Share Posted August 3, 2019 The epic Pacific firehose jet just won’t let up. This time it was nearly forced up to the Arctic circle with record rains in Nome,Alaska. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1157502080392712192 There it is: Nome, Alaska, with one of the longest climate records in the state (since 1907) sets all-time 24 hour precipitation record: 10pm AKDT Thursday to 8pm Friday rainfall 2.43" (61.7mm) breaks previous record 2.38" (60.5mm) Aug 8-9, 1956. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1157352074373259264 Remember the atmospheric river forecast from a few days ago? It's here: Nome received 2.09" (53.1mm) in 12-hours between 10pm Thursday & 10am Friday. The greatest 24-hour rainfall at Nome is 2.38" (60.5mm) Aug 8-9, 1956. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 Stagant flow today , so a bit sticky but overall we should continue the theme of nice weekends this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 13 hours ago, SACRUS said: 8/3 TEB: 92 LGA: 88 New Bswk: 88 PHL: 87 EWR: 85 BLM: 85 TTN: 84 NYC: 84 ACY: 84 JFK: 82 ISP: 81 I think you meant 8/2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 Looking ahead 8/3 - 8/9 : will continue the near normal / bit warmer regime we've been in, teetering on 90 (upper 80s) and with enough sun, some spots push 90. 8/9 - 8/16 : Trough / wet and likely at or below normal. I still think the stronger heat will be delayed not denied following the progression after the EU heat just a bit delayed. we'll track the cooldown and see how cool we get. Already it is looking more next weekend than Thu as models had been initially honing in on. Perhaps it adjusts over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I think you meant 8/2? Thanks Ron. I adjusted. I doubt we are much different today, anyways :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 3, 2019 Author Share Posted August 3, 2019 The duration of that eventual Northeast trough may come down to the MJO. The MJO is finally becoming active again. Phase 4 in August favors a trough over the region. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/mjo/composite.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 Uncomfortable out there today. 83/69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The duration of that eventual Northeast trough may come down to the MJO. The MJO is finally becoming active again. Phase 4 in August favors a trough over the region. The WAR is really pushed aside on the EPS later next week. Wonder whether the signal for the warmer second half of August/early September comes after the trough shifts away from the East Coast . Certainly seems the frequency of excessive rainfall has been coming dow a bit recently. Wondering if it is now too late to build extreme, long lasting heat as we are passing the climo peak heat period and the days continue to shorten. However, the warmth of the Atlantic is impresssive. Will be interesting to see how long the duration of the Northeast trough remains once it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 Kdix radar down again??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The epic Pacific firehose jet just won’t let up. This time it was nearly forced up to the Arctic circle with record rains in Nome,Alaska. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1157502080392712192 There it is: Nome, Alaska, with one of the longest climate records in the state (since 1907) sets all-time 24 hour precipitation record: 10pm AKDT Thursday to 8pm Friday rainfall 2.43" (61.7mm) breaks previous record 2.38" (60.5mm) Aug 8-9, 1956. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1157352074373259264 Remember the atmospheric river forecast from a few days ago? It's here: Nome received 2.09" (53.1mm) in 12-hours between 10pm Thursday & 10am Friday. The greatest 24-hour rainfall at Nome is 2.38" (60.5mm) Aug 8-9, 1956. Probably too early to speculate, but I am hoping it calms down some before the winter. That raging PAC jet decimated our snow weenie dreams last year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 Long lasting heat is possible in late summer as witnessed by our longest heatwave ever, which began Aug. 23 and lasted 12 days in 1953. Avg. high about 96 degrees. Meanwhile August looks boring, with more sinking air over the Atlantic showing up now, than in earlier projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 3, 2019 Author Share Posted August 3, 2019 1 hour ago, frd said: The WAR is really pushed aside on the EPS later next week. Wonder whether the signal for the warmer second half of August/early September comes after the trough shifts away from the East Coast . Certainly seems the frequency of excessive rainfall has been coming dow a bit recently. Wondering if it is now too late to build extreme, long lasting heat as we are passing the climo peak heat period and the days continue to shorten. However, the warmth of the Atlantic is impresssive. Will be interesting to see how long the duration of the Northeast trough remains once it sets up. It looks like it will make it difficult for the August temperature departure to beat July. Our warmer summers since 2015 all had a greater August temperature departure than July. 2015 LGA....JUL...+1.8.....AUG...+3.0 2016 LGA....JUL...+3.7....AUG....+5.3 2018 LGA....JUL...+2.4....AUG....+4.7 2019 LGA....JUL...+4.1 40 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Probably too early to speculate, but I am hoping it calms down some before the winter. That raging PAC jet decimated our snow weenie dreams last year.... Plenty of unknowns concerning next winter at this time. Will the raging Pacific jet relax? Will the record summer -NAO extend into winter? What will happen with ENSO? Will the amped up MJO continue for another winter? How will the extreme Arctic summer warmth and low sea ice impact the fall and winter circulation? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 59 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Kdix radar down again??? NOUS61 KPHI 030646 FTMDIX Message Date: Aug 03 2019 07:10:52 KDIX has gone down. We'll notify techs shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 4 hours ago, SACRUS said: Looking ahead 8/3 - 8/9 : will continue the near normal / bit warmer regime we've been in, teetering on 90 (upper 80s) and with enough sun, some spots push 90. 8/9 - 8/16 : Trough / wet and likely at or below normal. I still think the stronger heat will be delayed not denied following the progression after the EU heat just a bit delayed. we'll track the cooldown and see how cool we get. Already it is looking more next weekend than Thu as models had been initially honing in on. Perhaps it adjusts over time. The models are showing beautiful weather with low humidity next weekend thanks to that trough. I'm not sure we're gonna have "wet" with the trough. The trough could actiually give us some of our nicest weather of the summer, rather than the high humidity and t-storms we've been dealing with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 1 hour ago, uofmiami said: NOUS61 KPHI 030646 FTMDIX Message Date: Aug 03 2019 07:10:52 KDIX has gone down. We'll notify techs shortly. It's mind-boggling how often that radar goes down. They have a serious problem and Mount Holly should be embarrassed about how unreliable that radar is. Upton's radar, on the other hand, never goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It looks like it will make it difficult for the August temperature departure to beat July. Our warmer summers since 2015 all had a greater August temperature departure than July. 2015 LGA....JUL...+1.8.....AUG...+3.0 2016 LGA....JUL...+3.7....AUG....+5.3 2018 LGA....JUL...+2.4....AUG....+4.7 2019 LGA....JUL...+4.1 Plenty of unknowns concerning next winter at this time. Will the raging Pacific jet relax? Will the record summer -NAO extend into winter? What will happen with ENSO? Will the amped up MJO continue for another winter? How will the extreme Arctic summer warmth and low sea ice impact the fall and winter circulation? Those excellent questions with impossible, at this time, to get answers, represent a working definition of a crapshoot. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 Current temp 85/DP 72/RH 64% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 Storms firing north and west, nearly stationary cells. Several SVR in upstate NY and in MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 24 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's mind-boggling how often that radar goes down. They have a serious problem and Mount Holly should be embarrassed about how unreliable that radar is. Upton's radar, on the other hand, never goes down. Yeah it goes down a lot more often compared to OKX. Looks like it’s back up now. Aug 03 2019 18:02:18 KDIX has returned to service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 85 earlier, 84 now. Normal August day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: The models are showing beautiful weather with low humidity next weekend thanks to that trough. I'm not sure we're gonna have "wet" with the trough. The trough could actiually give us some of our nicest weather of the summer, rather than the high humidity and t-storms we've been dealing with. I'm gonna hold you to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 3, 2019 Author Share Posted August 3, 2019 Surface conditions have quickly dried out along the Long Island South Shore since July 24th. Most of the grass and vegetation not regularly watered turned brown. Best recent sea breeze front convection has been favoring the North Shore. The last 10 period has been the 3rd driest on record at Islip. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 24 to Aug 2 Missing Count 1 2006-08-02 0.02 0 2 1972-08-02 0.04 0 3 2019-08-02 0.05 0 4 2005-08-02 0.07 0 5 1999-08-02 0.13 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted August 3, 2019 Share Posted August 3, 2019 Forecast for next week: Monday will be a gorgeous sunny day. Wednesday looks wet and icky. Tuesday is still a toss up although the models have begun trending towards the wet side today. Still too early for a definitive forecast on Thursday or Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4, 2019 Share Posted August 4, 2019 Models in the long range are showing troughs. Good luck trying to get a tropical system to hit the US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 4, 2019 Share Posted August 4, 2019 BOOM BANG FLASH ZAP good storm happening just a few feet to my north. It's really banging away out there. I'm just getting fringe rains and outflow boundaries so far. edit: Woah there's the heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 4, 2019 Share Posted August 4, 2019 It looks like some decent storms developing north and northwest of the metro area heading this way, have to see if they hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2019 Share Posted August 4, 2019 I think this is the best lightning I have seen from such a far distance. Some sick bolts going up into the anvil 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 4, 2019 Share Posted August 4, 2019 19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I think this is the best lightning I have seen from such a far distance. Some sick bolts going up into the anvil That's the hail core that was over Somers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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