CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Euro is ugly Sunday and Monday. That’s a chilly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is ugly Sunday and Monday. That’s a chilly rain. I thought that was only coast/islands? Please don't say inland now....wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 minute ago, 512high said: I thought that was only coast/islands? Please don't say inland now....wtf It’s more for SE areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Cape Cod vacation camping trip FTL. At best we're talking strong onshore flow, chaotic waves, and highs in the 60s. At worst, misery mist. Ugh, we scramble for alternatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is ugly Sunday and Monday. That’s a chilly rain. Even it’s own ENS don’t agree with op. Sell it and toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Even it’s own ENS don’t agree with op. Sell it and toss it. They do agree. Shower risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They do agree. Shower risk We wedge. We invert. We stratus from the northeast. Maybe we can pull a Labor Day of Yore though. Still showing up on ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They do agree. Shower risk Sell toss. Going 78-82 all weekend inland and west of 495 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sell toss. Going 78-82 all weekend inland and west of 495 That’s optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We wedge. We invert. We stratus from the northeast. Maybe we can pull a Labor Day of Yore though. Still showing up on ensembles. Hopefully front is offshore or it’s Labor Day of pour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: That’s optimistic There's no way that verifies at his place. Might have to pull out the BDL tarmac for this one and hope they don't stay too cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's no way that verifies at his place. Might have to pull out the BDL tarmac for this one and hope they don't stay too cloudy. Even with him downsloping on NE winds....that’s going to be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 Well you are assuming it’s rainy and cloudy in CT. I am not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: Meh. 0.06" in round one. PWM must have gotten ~1" Look for the blue echoes between the areas of juicy green and yellow and you'll find my place. We'll see if anything significant makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 4 hours ago, J.Spin said: LOL, not quite yet, this weekend looks like more of this fantastic late summer/early fall weather that is too good to pass up. But, a few more weeks and we’ll definitely be watching for those first dustings in the peaks around here in NNE. The earliest recorded accumulations on Mt. Mansfield are actually only a week from today (see inset in the graph below), and of course on Mt. Washington it can happen at almost any time. I ran the early snowfall numbers for Mt. Mansfield a few years back and found that first snows occurred in September at an average rate of about twice a decade, and only about once a decade do we not have that first snow by October. I recently assembled the actual numbers though, and I’ve plotted those below. The occurrence of first snow by October is actually a bit higher than 90% though, so the absence of snow by October is closer to once every 15 years vs. once a decade. First snows are potentially a bit more frequent than the numbers indicate too, since there are some seasons with chunks of autumn data missing, and with the ephemeral nature of early season snow and the variability in personnel making those observations, some occurrences of snow could easily been missed. Will has mentioned his inclinations toward mild Octobers before, and I’m definitely with him on that. Killing off the bugs and then having Indian Summer with foliage is amazing. Up here though, the other side of the coin can also be good. If we can get those below average temperature that bring a decent early snowfall, the turns can be great sometimes. Even if the snow is meager though, you still get those vistas of foliage and white. That 8/28/86 system is a standout. Even down here my high was 58° and the following morning the low was 34°. The low still stands at the record low for the date and month but the high was broken the next year with a high of only 56°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even with him downsloping on NE winds....that’s going to be tough. That’s one helluva backdoor front on the GFS. Has NE CT at 72F at 18z on Sunday, then NE flow brings 55F by 00z and 47F by 6z. Some raw chill late Sunday into Monday morning...that’s no rad cooling, just raw NE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Pattern turns Warm and humid day 9/3 on. Watch and see. Bermuda high backs back in Hasn't the "warm/hot & humid climate" always been 10 days out? Sounds like continuous cold last winter always being 10 days away. Every time you say "and on" or "and beyond" it lasts a few days and then we get a break. It's been like that all summer. Yeah it's been warm and AN but what's the longest stretch of HHH been this summer? 5-7 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s one helluva backdoor front on the GFS. Has NE CT at 72F at 18z on Sunday, then NE flow brings 55F by 00z and 47F by 6z. Some raw chill late Sunday into Monday morning...that’s no rad cooling, just raw NE flow. If you think that will be close to reality it’s time to end your hobby. I mean come on. It’ll be 70’s then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you think that will be close to reality it’s time to end your hobby. I mean come on. It’ll be 70’s then At 3AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If you think that will be close to reality it’s time to end your hobby. I mean come on. It’ll be 70’s then It’ll be in the 70s at 6z on Sunday night? Noted. I just said the model has you in the 70s Sunday afternoon before something slips in your backdoor. Sunday night looks raw with NE flow chill. The evolution doesn’t look completely off-base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 minute ago, MetHerb said: At 3AM? I honestly hope you are kidding with posting that. I mean come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I honestly hope you are kidding with posting that. I mean come on Sweatshirts at 945’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sweatshirts at 945’ 40’s in August in this pattern. I’ll eat his shorts if that comes close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 40’s in August in this pattern. I’ll eat his shorts if that comes close What does “in this pattern” refer to? Summer in general? The evolution models are offering up have the air mass coming from the Canadian Maritimes. GGEM is a bit warmer than GFS but Sunday night and Monday night are still fairly chilly. Highs in the upper 60s daytime. I think 40s would be highly unlikely for you but 53-56F on NE flow certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 @dendrite that Tornado warning has got to be near your parent's place iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 40’s in August in this pattern. I’ll eat his shorts if that comes close You won’t be in 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You won’t be in 40s Models will likely moderate a bit, just like when they pop 98’s that verify as 94F... but every model right now has Sunday night quite chilly. Be interesting to see if that on-shore flow gathers steam or peters out. ICON also has SNE as 47-53F early Monday morning, GFS isn’t totally out there. Higher terrain Monanocks and east slope of Berks maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Models will likely moderate a bit, just like when they pop 98’s that verify as 94F... but every model right now has Sunday night quite chilly. Be interesting to see if that on-shore flow gathers steam or peters out. ICON also has SNE as 47-53F early Monday morning, GFS isn’t totally out there. Higher terrain Monanocks and east slope of Berks maybe? With his elevation that would be tough imo. That’s my guess. I bet lower spots will. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You won’t be in 40s I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 21, 2019 Share Posted August 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: With his elevation that would be tough imo. That’s my guess. I bet lower spots will. We shall see. Ahh I was looking at it like the terrain would be the coolest on NE flow. Like a misty cool with the coldest at say 500-1,500ft like a CAD situation. Of course 850 temps are really disconnected with the wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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