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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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9 hours ago, ma blizzard said:

KBOS sitting at 80, yet literally every WU station within a couple miles is 75-77 :lol:

we toss 

I realize this is a popular mantra regarding Logan observations ... that the stationion is interminably in temperature error, and that may be so.  Still ... because surrounding stations are 2 or 3 cooler - that's enough reason to justify tossing alone   

That could still be explained/legitimized 

 

 

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BTV AFD telling us how it is today:

&& Near term /through Wednesday/... as of 700 am EDT Tuesday...no significant changes made to crnt forecast. Did reduce areal coverage of fog based on satl/obs. Also, knocked several degrees off crnt hrly temps, as slk down to 44f and btv is 60f, great sleeping weather overnight. Otherwise with plenty of sun, temps will warm quickly this morning. North country chamber of Commerce weather today with plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures, along with lower humidity levels.

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23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

BTV AFD telling us how it is today:

&& Near term /through Wednesday/... as of 700 am EDT Tuesday...no significant changes made to crnt forecast. Did reduce areal coverage of fog based on satl/obs. Also, knocked several degrees off crnt hrly temps, as slk down to 44f and btv is 60f, great sleeping weather overnight. Otherwise with plenty of sun, temps will warm quickly this morning. North country chamber of Commerce weather today with plenty of sunshine and mild temperatures, along with lower humidity levels.

they should just abbreviate and say "COC". some people would be like :o

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah back broken regarding summer. Torch and dews still cometh, but the big heat is probably done. I'm sure a few 90s will happen at the tarmacs.

Hopefully the Labor Day of Yore signal gets stronger on the ensembles....some hints there

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah back broken regarding summer. Torch and dews still cometh, but the big heat is probably done. I'm sure a few 90s will happen at the tarmacs.

Steve will be surfing until October claiming summer is still alive but retirees have that advantage. Most of us know the feel of summer is over as we kiss our kids off to school. 

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53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Steve will be surfing until October claiming summer is still alive but retirees have that advantage. Most of us know the feel of summer is over as we kiss our kids off to school. 

Even doing yardwork there is a difference in feel now as opposed to June and July.

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It's subjective so taken with the perfunctory grain - 

but nope.   Summers' back ain't broke... not until you get a shot across the bow -  ;)  ...or at least the shot that's right before that one - not thinkin' we've seen either just yet. 

buuuut, that's just my opinion.    

May not have to wait long though ... that sub 560 dam thickness attempting to plume over the weekend .. if that holds. 

One kind of marker for this assessment - subjective or not ... - is that nightly lows still are above normal.... like always.  Which is probably short-sighted as a metric.  I mean.. GW means that could be true anyway... by decimals...  I like the other idea that the "new climate norms" since 1990 need to roll-out in the daily comparisons ...because these +2's are getting ridiculous - agreed... 

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51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's subjective so taken with the perfunctory grain - 

but nope.   Summers' back ain't broke... not until you get a shot across the bow -  ;)  ...or at least the shot that's right before that one - not thinkin' we've seen either just yet. 

buuuut, that's just my opinion.    

May not have to wait long though ... that sub 560 dam thickness attempting to plume over the weekend .. if that holds. 

One kind of marker for this assessment - subjective or not ... - is that nightly lows still are above normal.... like always.

Interesting it’s like that in SNE but not NNE.  

We've done 11 of 19 days this month with below the 30-year normal minimums at MVL.

But warm mins seem to be almost more prevalent in the winter.  No one bottoms out like they used to at least on the regular.

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16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, and Tamarack not hitting 80F yet in August still blows my mind from earlier.

The warm fronts just haven't been able to penetrate far enough north and then stay there for us to bake I guess.  Many days there have been big dew point gradients too across CNE.  Some summers though it seems like it's just a SW flow furnace right through Montreal and Quebec...like the max 850s almost go up and above New England when there's a monster eastern ridge. 

Even going back to this winter, it's had this gradient nearby where it seems any ridging that tries to establish itself just gets beaten down from the north.

Last summer it seemed like BTV popped 90-95 like candy, but like Brian and I were talking about, for that site to only be +1.5 in August it certainly hasn’t been hot.

Edit:  Last August was +5.7 at BTV :lol:.

Before your head explodes, note that my thermometer location is transpirationally cooled in summer and is where descending cold air gathers for a party when radiational cooling is out and about.  August 2008 had a max of 79 and June 2009 just 77, my only met summer months that didn't reach 80.  July 2009 only got there once (82), in late month.  (Those 2 months of 2009 probably had more days of stratiform RA than in an average OCT-NOV.)

We wet

Meh  That's only 40 times as much as fell into my Stratus.

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4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Before your head explodes, note that my thermometer location is transpirationally cooled in summer and is where descending cold air gathers for a party when radiational cooling is out and about.  August 2008 had a max of 79 and June 2009 just 77, my only met summer months that didn't reach 80.  July 2009 only got there once (82), in late month.  (Those 2 months of 2009 probably had more days of stratiform RA than in an average OCT-NOV.)

Ha, yeah I figured there had to be some evapotranspiration going on nearby to keep temps from getting to 80F.  Even if under a thick canopy that still seems decently impressive as 80F feels like such an easy barrier to hit in mid-summer.

 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Interesting it’s like that in SNE but not NNE.  

But warm mins seem to be almost more prevalent in the winter.  No one bottoms out like they used to at least on the regular.

Seems like the rad spots really struggle more now in the winter.

ORH has set 9 record low minimums in winter since 2000 versus CON with only 6.

 

Using only the ASOS locations:

 

CON: 14 record lows since 2000

ORH: 24 record lows since 2000

 

Period of record is similar...CON winters go back to 1939-1940 at the current location while ORH goes back to 1947-1948....so slightly longer record for CON but nowhere near long enough to explain the 10 extra records for ORH. I even double checked ORH records for the same dates as the January 1942 and Feb 1943 outbreaks and only 1 record low occurred at ORH after 2000 during those dates, so at most, I can only toss 1 record due to period of record differences.

It is definitely harder to radiate at CON versus earlier....while ORH can still get record lows a bit more often because they do it on CAA type airmasses.

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