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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It’s frigid

62.8/54.8 with -SHRA and breezy

Time to eat some apple cider doughnuts.

C67810F8-FB2A-4902-9B6B-B9777B9D22E5.jpeg

The temp swings today are nuts.  The showers come in and it’s downright cold...then the sun is out 5 minutes later and it seems 10-15F warmer.  

Dry air and evap cooling with these gusty showers.

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18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The temp swings today are nuts.  The showers come in and it’s downright cold...then the sun is out 5 minutes later and it seems 10-15F warmer.  

Dry air and evap cooling with these gusty showers.

The ASOS obs are pretty funny.  All over the place.

2pm... 60F

1pm... 66F

12pm... 60F

11am... 67F

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19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The temp swings today are nuts.  The showers come in and it’s downright cold...then the sun is out 5 minutes later and it seems 10-15F warmer.  

Dry air and evap cooling with these gusty showers.

Almost like April with cold pool showers where it's 60F and sun and then you get pounded with 38F graupel.

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Well ... the models finally did it... they succeeded in boring out a deep hole in the atmosphere through eastern Ontario...

The GFS in particular ... but all have at one time or the other, all summer long, been churning out model runs with autumn vortexes that never panned out... Finally, one is/did...

I'm tentatively encouraged by this.

First off, someone earlier asserted 'summer's back is broken' - heh... I'd go with strained.  It's a fun anecdotal question...one that is wholly subjective and semantic ( so fraught with disagreement potential...), but, it seems to vary from year to year.  Some years... heh, the back is always broke... Other years, seems we have to get to the end of September before that seems clad and clear. 

I'd say odds favor we won't have to be protracted this go... it's just not happened quite yet though.  Call it strained...  We'll see how that D6-10 pans out...

I think we have a shot at an early transition season and possibly an early loaded winter. Not sure how folks judge that one, either... But, I don't consider those recent Thanks giving snow events as really counting much toward that distinction, because it didn't last.  By "loaded" we don't mean ... flighty ...we mean loaded.  The last time I think we really had that was 2010 but I'm curious what others think... Incidentally, the thanks giving ones I believe were related to the same reason so many other Octobers have witnessed either snow, or...snow supportive cold outbreaks since the year 2000.  It's just that early -AO attributed cold incursions ( prior to seasonal pattern orientation ) have been more common in recent decades...

So we've observed a propensity for -AO all summer long... one that as of last checked is in the process ( American derived - ) yet again of correcting negative at CPC... The question is... does that extinguish as we head into the autumn.  

I think it may not ... the Millennial curve of polar region is negative ... *typically landing on AMOC ... and both are solar correlated.. .With the deep nadir from the resonant 11, 22, 300 year stuff... that seems a reasonable first guess that we won't have to pull as many teeth to see -AO ... and also, able to sustain.  Speculative...  I think we get cool snaps into October and even an early car topper event - ...then, as the hemisphere really cools and the gradient steepens...we'll find out what the winter look will be... What ever it is... it'll probably be faster than a bat leavin' hell - 

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61/53   Partly cloudy.  Few very light showers today but managed a 70F

Meanwhile, my sister and family in Bend Oregon got hit with a nice hailstorm late yesterday afternoon.  Here's a picture of my brother-in -law with the snowblower.  A bit overdone for something that will melt in an hour or two but it looks like something this weenie would do.

Hail Joe.jpg

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