Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Can you post a picture of your Davis showing that? 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Can you post a picture of your Davis showing that? Why when Tolland didn’t? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Can you post a picture of your Davis showing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How was yesterday BN lol? It hit 90 in CT . Dudes wasted Who said yesterday? ‘Stop and think it through’ -Elmo 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 When we enter the new climo period it's going to be interesting to see how much the min's climb. With regards to the warming (referencing AGW here) you gotta wonder if eventually it will appear as if we're not seeing crazy warmth anymore and whether below-average periods are deceiving. What I mean by this is...when the climate numbers become adjusted everything is obviously going to tick up...so maybe right now a +4 in July may only come in as a +1...so you would think ehhh that's not bad...but in the grand scheme of the overall picture (going back to the start of records) that +1 is still quite significant. Also, say 85 is your average high...that will eventually become below-average. There is just so much that is going to happen with regards to climate statistics over the next several years that misinterpretations could become rampant. I would like to hear @Typhoon Tip's thoughts on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: When we enter the new climo period it's going to be interesting to see how much the min's climb. With regards to the warming (referencing AGW here) you gotta wonder if eventually it will appear as if we're not seeing crazy warmth anymore and whether below-average periods are deceiving. What I mean by this is...when the climate numbers become adjusted everything is obviously going to tick up...so maybe right now a +4 in July may only come in as a +1...so you would think ehhh that's not bad...but in the grand scheme of the overall picture (going back to the start of records) that +1 is still quite significant. Also, say 85 is your average high...that will eventually become below-average. There is just so much that is going to happen with regards to climate statistics over the next several years that misinterpretations could become rampant. I would like to hear @Typhoon Tip's thoughts on this. Which is why I feel we are behind in adjusting. Yea we use 1981-2010, I get it. So once we move to 1991-2020, we’ll see a pretty big uptick which we technically should be using now.....but whatever, two years in moving the normals will be significant. The AHATT crowd will have a harder time forecasting +5 for every summer next decade. That is, unless the roof blows off on GW and we escalate this shit at greater frequencies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 The global warming crowd and the media will have a field day in 2020 saying it's been so warm we needed to move our goal posts. They'll ignore that it's a scheduled change. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Which is why I feel we are behind in adjusting. Yea we use 1981-2010, I get it. So once we move to 1991-2020, we’ll see a pretty big uptick which we technically should be using now.....but whatever, one year in moving the normals will be significant. The AHATT crowd will have a harder time forecasting +5 for every summer next decade. That is, unless the roof blows off on GW and we escalate this shit at greater frequencies. If we're still pulling off +5's in the upcoming climo period we're in big trouble I think. Speaking of the climo period...I think this also makes re-analysis extremely difficult. For example, this page... You can get temperature anomalies beginning from January 1895. But the following climo periods are only available: 1950-1995 1951-2010 1961-1990 1971-2000 1895-2000 1950-2007 2007-2016 I sort of wish there were some other periods in there...especially for early on in the dataset. I mean say you wanted to look at like some month in 1904...if you compare that to the 1981-2010 climo...chances are it is going to look quite below-average. but at least with the temperature anomalies you can choose different periods. I think it's really bad with this page... because everything is just compared with the most recent climo period. Maybe I'm just being picky but too me it weakens the validity of the true picture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Everything on track, warm first few days with a +1.5-2 departures.. COC period for about 4-7 days.. maybe longer with a brief day or two of warm weather.. then likely torch again late in the month, I still think we finish at +1.0 - 1.5 AN at most sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why when Tolland didn’t? ORH hit 81* for 30 seconds when the new Delta flight landed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Most of us will be aoa through today or even tomorrow. It’s not as hard to pop big + latter half of August as climo starts dropping. True enough. The 5 days 8/30-9/3/2010 averaged +12 at my place, and included Farmington's most recent 4-day heat wave. Not seeing anything like that coming, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Looks pretty COC-Y next week before retorch to end month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How was yesterday BN lol? It hit 90 in CT . Dudes wasted Will we ever see another BN day in summer again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Hopefully we can stay +3F right through DJF. I'd like my bamboo to stay evergreen this winter. Global warming ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, dendrite said: Will we ever see another BN day in summer again? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 You can sense a nervous tone to some of the ones that were calling for an august furnace, Get a hot July and all of a sudden every month from now on suppose to be a blowtorch with continuous HHH. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Unfortunately no tweets to be found that has us HHH next few days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: You can sense a nervous tone to some of the ones that were calling for an august furnace, Get a hot July and all of a sudden every month from now on suppose to be a blowtorch with continuous HHH. I’m not the slightest bit nervous. If I’m wrong it won’t be the first time...lol. I’ll be in Europe after 8/23 so I won’t see how we end up....although I’ll know-phone FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Everything exactly on track. Torch first week of Augdewst. 3-4 days have hit 70 or higher for dews so on track there. Mild down for a few days in middle and then furnace from 17-18 on. Month will end 2.5 to 3.5 AN as forecast. Couldn’t be working out any better . Again ... for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Meh... I'm not overly convinced the summer is any more demonstratively verifying above normal than it already has... Yeah...I suppose a plausible defining difference maker would be a bigger heat wave event toward the 18th - the 24th or something... somewhere in there it seems timed right if I'm not clapping my hands on the wrong part of the model-song syncopation. .. . But excluding that, ... nothing's changed in the models looking at the present trends ( last 5 days worth..) Said trend is micro cosm of the summer as a whole... 2 days of amazing heat...folllowed by 2 days of modeling that looks like mid autumn bullies in. The models have an usually strong gradient along the 50th parallel ... for summer, that's a certainty. So every time that ribbon of westerlies sinks a little... dramatic difference. At least based upon my 40 years of sentience in the field, both existential and as a horrible weather forecaster... Be that as it may, we don't typically see such strong northern stream flows ribbon'ed along that latitude, with 530 dm vortex cores bowling along while running 594 to 500 dm ridging bombs from southern California to Bermuda depending on model run... And that's been happening since April ...for all intents and purposes... And, that is going on in the models now... So, based on that consistent behavior, and then matching it with the +2 to +5 verification... I figure as a better I'd put my money down that despite whatever model depiction one 'wants' to see happen, ...and any following hugely convincing statements are cobbled together to support those... we'll probably end up +2 to +5 ... Pick how we get there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Yesterday’s high of 81F interrupted the 6-day below normal stretch. What an August so far, -2.2. 5 of 7 days with a minimum in the 40s so far. And a bunch more below normal days coming up. Highs in mid-60s on Saturday per BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m not the slightest bit nervous. If I’m wrong it won’t be the first time...lol. I’ll be in Europe after 8/23 so I won’t see how we end up....although I’ll know-phone FTW. You get a pass my friend, And we have all been wrong before, But enjoy your trip, Hopefully vacation related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m not the slightest bit nervous. If I’m wrong it won’t be the first time...lol. I’ll be in Europe after 8/23 so I won’t see how we end up....although I’ll know-phone FTW. enjoy hopefully no heatwaves there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everything exactly on track. Torch first week of Augdewst. 3-4 days have hit 70 or higher for dews so on track there. Mild down for a few days in middle and then furnace from 17-18 on. Month will end 2.5 to 3.5 AN as forecast. Couldn’t be working out any better . Again ... for SNE might take till a little after the 20th me thinks to get to furnace weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: You can sense a nervous tone to some of the ones that were calling for an august furnace, Get a hot July and all of a sudden every month from now on suppose to be a blowtorch with continuous HHH. Shot across the bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: You get a pass my friend, And we have all been wrong before, But enjoy your trip, Hopefully vacation related. Thanks Jeff! Definitely vacation. Dropping our daughter off in London and after 5 days there we’re heading to Paris. Should be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yesterday’s high of 81F interrupted the 6-day below normal stretch. What an August so far, -2.2. 5 of 7 days with a minimum in the 40s so far. And a bunch more below normal days coming up. Highs in mid-60s on Saturday per BTV. Just continuous high fives from folks outside getting after it instead of being hunkered down in apts or houses with windows closed and A/C running 24/7 like mid july on was. Today: Scattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 78. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: enjoy hopefully no heatwaves there. My wife is responsible for getting is places to stay. My only requirement is ac which in Europe is not a given.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Monday and Tuesday in SNE look sneaky warm. Won’t surprise to see one or both days touch 90 as that low goes to our north and we tap dews ahead of front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Monday and Tuesday in SNE look sneaky warm. Won’t surprise to see one or both days touch 90 as that low goes to our north and we tap dews ahead of front where in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 8, 2019 Share Posted August 8, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: My wife is responsible for getting is places to stay. My only requirement is ac which in Europe is not a given.. Saw a number on one of these threads that only 5% of the pop in Europe have AC? That's and eyebrow raise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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