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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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56 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

His friend didn't want her name associated.  He should have sold it.

Ya, I reached out her on FB. Known her for years, worked with my Dad. Wasn't even sure if it would get popularity. She said if anyone from media asked, do not provide her name, said probably easier to just use mine so she doesn't have to talk to anyone. :lol:

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40 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Ya, I reached out her on FB. Wasn't even sure if it would get popularity. She said if anyone from media asked, do not provide her name, said probably easier to just use mine so she doesn't have to talk to anyone. :lol:

:weenie::weenie: I give it a two bunner+

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Cranky says we stay a bit AN 

and the tropics will remain dead w caveat that weak (T.D / weak T.S)home grown is possible in this regime when any energy hits SW side of ATL ridge  and recurves 

So cool temps and major cane strike coming soon. Got it.

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No idea who Ryan Sutter is ... or what his creds are in the field of operational Meteorology, but ... that chart sequence that was ferreted out of the "Twits-sphere" does echo these sentiments I made to Brian yesterday, 

"but, the gfs in particular ..that model has been attempting to februate the pattern the whole way and here we are with departures...  It seems heat for whatever reason, is doubling back in spite of the PNAP dent in the east. .."

It's been odd - the last heat wave really did not come via a classic circulation construct over mid latitude of N/A ... And this secondary sort of "emergent" tendency to succeed heat despite the heat-crippled isohypsotic layout has been a recurrent theme.  The bigger heat wave from 10 or so day prior, that one had a bit more 'ridged' look to it, but even it left some to be desired... 

I don't know how long that behavior of "over achieving warmth relative to the structure of the flow" is going to persist, but... it seems to be a trend.. That sequenced charting by Ryan above isn't a surprise as it seems the models are off to the same antic of figuring out how to get AN with a cooler look.   

It's funny how these emergent complexions seems to take place ... One really can't accurately get a sense of the sensible weather ... without understanding/considering these emergent trends that are ..more like synergistic -

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I happened to step to a large picture window here at the office in Shrewbury as that warned cell was slipping past ... four miles south of this location at most, and was lucky enough to catch a CG that did that exact same "branching" 

That cell was fantastically proficient with CG of all types, btw.  There were countless CGs. ... overlapping at times as they descended from different origins of the over hanging storm cloud structures...  Some of the strokes were singular bolts with the typical kinks here and there, but would pulse as many as three times.  Then... within a moment later, ...one like that above with the branching. Those did not pulse however.  Just bright and instantaneous...  I'm wondering if that's polarity of the distroke ... ?  

Not sure ...but I did notice that the branched distroke CG types were not pulsers.. The single bolts were fantastic blinkers though.  

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

76/58 Sunny

Borderline COC.

Home stations keyed into Wunder down 'round deez parts are mid 80s ... Dps... 57 to 61... 

It's certainly subjectively lowering the HI's but ... but we're objectively heading for above normal despite yesterday's cfropa - 

This is could be how August behaves ... sort of genetically not having fallen far from the 2019 summer weather genetic tree.   The color of this summer's eyes are +3 or +5 ... and it'll just find a way to get there.  

Fun metaphors aside ... I am noticing the CDC PNA and negative and the CPC variation is also fallen ... even though that tele is almost in-germane at this time of year. But the negative NAO was more east based and is neutralizing ...and that may be more telling that the correction in the GFS trough sag is plausible - yet again...  

I'm also noticing the LIs are modeled to tank regionally already by tomorrow so... 26 C in the T1 (980 SIGMA) with -4 LI ...prooobably signals more humidity lurks by Sat.

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Home stations keyed into Wunder down 'round deez parts are mid 80s ... Dps... 57 to 61... 

It's certainly objectively lowering the HI's but ... subjectively, we're heading for above normal despite the cfropa - 

This is could be how August behaves ... sort of genetically not having fallen far from the 2019 summer weather genetic tree.   The color of this summer's eyes are +3 or +5 ... and it'll just find a way to get there. 

Yeah I sorta agree. I figured even the pretty blue anomalies the ensembles had over the past week for the 2nd week in Aug would still verify as a bit above normal. With that said, if it all verifies as warm days with lower dewpoints the radiators should end up with smaller departures. The MAV and MET both have 49F tonight for CON. It'll probably be mid 50s by midnight tonight so the 61F this morning gets wiped out. So right there you'd have something like 56F and 49F to start the month for mins. If we're getting even occasional weak cold fropas this time of year and keeping the dews down, it's tough to run a torch month. Of course a place like BOS (UHI) and ORH (mixing) wouldn't be "feeling" that effect as much.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I'm shocked you feel this way.

It’s not about how I feel,it’s just what’s being shown and the pattern and climate we’re currently in. Why would anyone look at this pattern thru next 30-60 days and think normal and dry and cool? That’s why so many of us couldn’t /can’t understand those calls and forecasts this summer . 

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46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not about how I feel,it’s just what’s being shown and the pattern and climate we’re currently in. Why would anyone look at this pattern thru next 30-60 days and think normal and dry and cool? That’s why so many of us couldn’t /can’t understand those calls and forecasts this summer . 

Well you got Apr-Jun wrong.

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