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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's really fascinating ....  

We are definitely observing the -AMOC related blocking going on and persisting/pervading the summer pattern at high latitudes, at the same time "suspicion" of GW enhanced seasonal hemispheric heights are attempting to usurp the pattern with heat/higher heights from the south, and we're seeing crazy gradients ...certainly relative to summer typology.  ...I really do wonder how this morphs heading into the autumn... 

The AMOC being the Atlantic, multi-decadal stuff with the SST and the co-relation with the NAO tendencies... The correlation is positive.. they tend to move together.  The AMOC is negative,  as can be seen with robust tripole signature to the SST distribution, and so on.  The propensity of the -NAO(-AO) follows concomitantly -

But, we cannot negate and/or completely disavow the GW enhancement on ambient heights, and then consider;  there are literally two diametrically opposing signals on a Global scale, and you can see it in the models as they bore out these absurd looking vortexes in central Canada at the same time they've got heights nearing 600 dam as nearby/far N at the Tennessee Valley...  

hmmm, add in all the low salinity ocean water from melting Greenland...thermohaline slowdown...what that does to the dipole or tripole in the Atlantic...anybody's guess.

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Just ran into another bear hiking with the dog... jfc. 

I've hiked 1-2 times per week around Mansfield and Spruce Peak for a solid 10 years and never ran into a bear while hiking.

Now the dog and I have run into bears 3 different times in the past two weeks.  I had my head down listening to music and almost walked right into this guy. 

Photo from a safer distance once we ran back down the trail.

67816211_10103810304775550_7529309589532

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4 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

wife and I will be visiting a friend this weekend in tolland.

 

Drinks at the Blue?

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Just ran into another bear hiking with the dog... jfc. 

I've hiked 1-2 times per week around Mansfield and Spruce Peak for a solid 10 years and never ran into a bear while hiking.

Now the dog and I have run into bears 3 different times in the past two weeks.  I had my head down listening to music and almost walked right into this guy. 

Photo from a safer distance once we ran back down the trail.

67816211_10103810304775550_7529309589532

 

I think you're supposed to walk slowly backward.

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looking mighty torchy mid month+. The ACATT crowd have been warned.

Yeah...if that D9 buzz saw up in Alaska settles unseasonably south toward the Pac/NW with that -EPO up there forcing that trajectory...that ridge from the front-range to Bermuda ain't gon' be so flat yo'

I don't know though... Like I was musing above, we are definitely seeing a dichotomy in the Hemisphere ...with large scale diametrical forces - the models seems to favor one or the other about every three runs...  It's making it difficult to get a bead on the 'trend tenors' in the runs.

As such I could see that go either way... At the same time ( oy ) one needs to admit the warm signal has been getting more play in the ensemble members et al. tru

As is...the Euro oper. has bona fide heat wave isohypsotic layout but ... guts it out and keeps the 20 C's down near Tennessee .... As Bri' and I were mentioning yesterday, could be a work in progress...

This could be an autumn with big swings -

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just ran into another bear hiking with the dog... jfc. 

I've hiked 1-2 times per week around Mansfield and Spruce Peak for a solid 10 years and never ran into a bear while hiking.

Now the dog and I have run into bears 3 different times in the past two weeks.  I had my head down listening to music and almost walked right into this guy. 

Photo from a safer distance once we ran back down the trail.

67816211_10103810304775550_7529309589532

Wish I had taken a pic during my encounter a couple weeks back...  Hard to tell true dimensions just from your picture, but the one I came up upon while riding one of these rail-trail/bike routes, was a bigger.  Descriptinos to the local GC said it was the male - several moms with cubs in this part of Mass and they were actually trying to locate the sire..

Yeah... instinct kicked in... internal monologue: 'don't make any sudden moves' ... The skidding of the bike tires drew it's massive head down the path and when he saw me... he lurched across and disappeared into the woods... When did, he briefly spanned the width of the bike path...  GC said he's in the neighborhood of 400 to 450 most likely...    It was definitely scared of me though...

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48 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

80's highs 60's lows is the new cool down. Welcome to GW

Weekend looks like highs in the 60s on Saturday and low 70s on Sunday?  Cool downs still hit NNE, maybe not SNE though, ha.

Saturday...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s.

Sunday...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

The same bear as last week? You'll be chums soon

Hard to say.  I think it might be.  Same size and demeanor.  He gave no shits we were there.  

The was a mom and cubs we ran into also at one point, that was more stressful because I don’t trust cubs.

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