August 2019 Discussion

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh i know - ...just bustin' balls...

Frankly, I hope that we ( finally ) get a front loader winter... Man, ... okay okay, so it's not statistically on point to expect that, but still...  2 in 7 should be at least more active between Thanks giggedy and spendmas...with 1 and 10 down right performing.  ...it's the 1:10 that we're due on.. and by that, pack the whole way... Gee say it like that, it's 1:28 

I think 2010 is the last big Dec we had but don't quote me... Otherwise... 2007 and 2008 back to back were good front winters ...  I think...  I know the best I ever experienced was 1995 while living on campus at UML.  We had still morning cold fall leaf litter in early November ... Rivulets of ice on the shade side of the Canal where the the water trickles from betwixt the granite blocks... And one afternoon 3:50 or so...with the sun oblique upon the western horizon, the ice still clung at 44 F ...  Meanwhile, NYC couldn't get below 60 - kind of a gradient look I suspect... Either way, a week later we had 3-5 mix/snow/zr ... and that was it.  No idea what Earth looked like until the super nova thaw of late January, '96... Now THAT is how you run an early loader. 

So was I. 

#1 front-loader here was 03-04, with 51% of the season's snow falling by Dec, 15, in 2 big gulps, 24" and 13".  Farmington co-op was even more extreme with 65% by then, but that was fueled by their 40" measurement for the Dec. 6-7 blizzard while nobody else within 20 miles approached 30.

[Spanks45]

The chill has eyes on SNE, Lol.....

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The chill has eyes on SNE, Lol.....

COC monster

[Spanks45]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree that it looks marginal...may be enough elevated CAPE though that you could get a decent storm. But yeah...south of the Pike looks solid. Also looks to me like storm motion may be right along the boundary which would prmote

1) training cells perhaps

2) enhanced SRH 

It took driving through the mountains of PA on Friday to experience the best storm in years...sitting in bumper to bumper traffic ontop of the mountain with cloud to ground strikes all around was amazing to experience, reminded me of the movie War of the Worlds. It would have been more enjoyable if it weren't for the 3 kids screaming and crying in terror....

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It took driving through the mountains of PA on Friday to experience the best storm in years...sitting in bumper to bumper traffic ontop of the mountain with cloud to ground strikes all around was amazing to experience, reminded me of the movie War of the Worlds. It would have been more enjoyable if it weren't for the 3 kids screaming and crying in terror....

Storms like that are the best. Several years back I was in a car and there were CG’s all around us. It was wild 

[Torch Tiger]

Cravings

 

[powderfreak]

4 out of 5 August days so far with dews in the 40s.  

77/47 this afternoon was sublime.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

4 out of 5 August days so far with dews in the 40s.  

77/47 this afternoon was sublime.

2018 vs 2019 here

2018
08/01 74.9  61.5 0.90   10  0.0  0
08/02 85.9  67.9    T   20  0.0  0
08/03 83.1  66.3 1.50   19  Hail 0
08/04 78.7  65.5 0.24    9  0.0  0
08/05 85.2  62.3 0.00    9  0.0  0

2019
08/01 79.9  56.8 0.00   17  0.0  0
08/02 81.2  52.0 0.00    8  0.0  0
08/03 82.4  55.0 0.01   13  0.0  0
08/04 79.4  55.7 0.00   17  0.0  0
08/05 78.3  49.6 0.00   10  0.0  0

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Warmer then expected today.  86F.

Right..... nice and dry/low DP cold pattern with above normal temperatures  -

get used to it folks...  86 here is abv normal -

By the way... the Euro operational is clearly in process of transitioning the 6-10 D into a heat wave...

May not happen...but it's overcoming/come it's own bias in SE Canada in just three runs to get us +16 C 850s 7-8-9 as it is... We'll see - With that flow flatting on the heals of a ridge tsunamis rolling through the Northern Lakes into eastern Ontario...not a huge leap to tug some western EML/dragon fart

[dendrite]

John...are you looking at 00z?

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

John...are you looking at 00z?

 

D 7/8 are in a synoptic evolution that lands on this appeal for D9... First Day 7 has ballooning height rises punching east across SE Canada... This look is not a cooling one... the lower troposphere is merely (but only slightly) out of phase for driving hot thickness into the height rise back side...

 

As I said, in process of transitioning ...but everyone's got an opinion - guess we'll see... but here at D9...this is just about identical to the pattern that provided last week low/mid grade heat wave...

[moneypitmike]

40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

4 out of 5 August days so far with dews in the 40s.  

77/47 this afternoon was sublime.

Yeah--ORH's high of 77/53 didn't suck.

[Ginx snewx]

5 hours ago, StormSurge said:

From your lips to Zaator's ears! (What an awesome looking pup!)

Gorgeous day today.

Top ten of beach days

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Dr. Dews said:

Cravings

 

Microburst here

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

2018 vs 2019 here

2018
08/01 74.9  61.5 0.90   10  0.0  0
08/02 85.9  67.9    T   20  0.0  0
08/03 83.1  66.3 1.50   19  Hail 0
08/04 78.7  65.5 0.24    9  0.0  0
08/05 85.2  62.3 0.00    9  0.0  0

2019
08/01 79.9  56.8 0.00   17  0.0  0
08/02 81.2  52.0 0.00    8  0.0  0
08/03 82.4  55.0 0.01   13  0.0  0
08/04 79.4  55.7 0.00   17  0.0  0
08/05 78.3  49.6 0.00   10  0.0  0

 

Impressive differences on the mins... like a solid 10F lower across the board.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Saw first wooly caterpillar of the season!  Yuge winter incoming! 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Right..... nice and dry/low DP cold pattern with above normal temperatures  -

get used to it folks...  86 here is abv normal -

Semantics but today had BOS at -4 on the max... ORH -2 on the max... BDL -1...etc.

Its essentially normal today, not sure I’d have given today an above normal designation.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Semantics but today had BOS at -4 on the max... ORH -2 on the max... BDL -1...etc.

Its essentially normal today, not sure I’d have given today an above normal designation.

Not sure what you mean by semantics ...

But Boston's micro-marine climate that stands apart from the vaster expanse of SNE did them in with an ENE wind all day that didn't penetrate much west of down town...

In this situation. I can understand ORH being hung up at -2 ....  a day like today has huge low-lvl lapse rates/super adiabat written all over it.. .  We're going to see big gaps between 1,000 feet compared to more typical warmer lower els with still solar max time of the year, light winds and low RH...  BDL... agreed, essentially normal... (actually a head scratcher)

These are not mere excuses...?  you sort of inadvertently cherry picked data points that would certainly satisfy a cooler interpretation - BDL being the noteworthy exception.

I am not making it up... it was hotter than normal at ASH-FIT/BED...to HFD... sites in the triangulum ...  Either way, it's not how to run a 'convincing" cool pattern... Which isn't actually denying the cool pattern - not to confuse you.  Seriously... I'm implicitly dancing around the freakshow global plague of heat... cool patterns are doing this... ending up average when meddling with the numbers over regional integrals...while warm ones blaze... 

But that's digression..

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Semantics but today had BOS at -4 on the max... ORH -2 on the max... BDL -1...etc.

Its essentially normal today, not sure I’d have given today an above normal designation.

I ran a +4 on my max but a -7 on my min.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I ran a +4 on my max but a -7 on my min.

Actually ...that's a good point Bob...

PF and I may be talking right past one another... I was specifically referencing the high temperatures in my original snark - he may have been looking at total diurnals...

yeah I don't argue those...not even sure point blank.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Top ten of beach days

 Especially when you go searching  by boat for them secluded type beaches! 

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Actually ...that's a good point Bob...

PF and I may be talking right past one another... I was specifically referencing the high temperatures in my original snark - he may have been looking at total diurnals...

yeah I don't argue those...not even sure point blank.

Yeah I was going daily departures unless otherwise specified... like PVD -2 min and 0 max.  

I was more looking at the overall picture of the 4 main BOX climo sites they list on the NOAA website... BDL, BOS, ORH, PVD.  All of those look like today will register normal or a tick below for the total daily departures (on the backs of the mins at BDL/PVD and maxes at ORH/BOS).

I didn’t look into TAN/ASH/FIT etc.  

I get what you’re going for Tip, because I agree.  What seems like the cold shot or whatever is verifying around pretty close to normal on the daily departure, with some sites above normal on the maxes.  So the “cool down” in this climate is just getting back to baseline.  

[Cyclone-68]

3 hours ago, Dr. Dews said:

Cravings

 

Probably a top three t-storm in my lifetime 

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Saw first wooly caterpillar of the season!  Yuge winter incoming! 

We biked the Franconia Notch trail today and yes wooly's in the way.  What a perfect day for the ride.  Clear, cool.  It's a great 9 mile trail.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

D 7/8 are in a synoptic evolution that lands on this appeal for D9... First Day 7 has ballooning height rises punching east across SE Canada... This look is not a cooling one... the lower troposphere is merely (but only slightly) out of phase for driving hot thickness into the height rise back side...

 

As I said, in process of transitioning ...but everyone's got an opinion - guess we'll see... but here at D9...this is just about identical to the pattern that provided last week low/mid grade heat wave...

Oh I agree. I think we bulge back warm with heat wave potential following the few day cool shot. No disagreements there. I just thought you said you saw +16C day 7 through 9. But it wouldn’t surprise me if d7 and especially d8 verify warmer come verification as the amount of time the cold tries to hang on and wedge in looks a bit fraudulent. 

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Oh I agree. I think we bulge back warm with heat wave potential following the few day cool shot. No disagreements there. I just thought you said you saw +16C day 7 through 9. But it wouldn’t surprise me if d7 and especially d8 verify warmer come verification as the amount of time the cold tries to hang on and wedge in looks a bit fraudulent. 

Yeah I probably did but was intending mean across the three days ... getting there by d9 

it may be a work in progress

[powderfreak]

Social media reminded me of a thunderstorm from 5 years ago.  This thing rocked us at the picnic tables (hikers and lift riders actually eating lunch on picnic tables on the Octagon Deck).  View is looking south down the spine of the northern Greens... storm got juiced in the Champlain Valley and exploded over the western slopes.

I remember thinking the windows were going to break on the lift building.  Good-sized hail coming in at sustained 60mph up there at 3,600ft, it was like kids were throwing handfuls of rocks at the window with every gust.

Of course, everything in weather is a little more crazy at that elevation.

[Bostonseminole]

85/54 in KBED.. did not feel that warm today.  

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Social media reminded me of a thunderstorm from 5 years ago.  This thing rocked us at the picnic tables (hikers and lift riders actually eating lunch on picnic tables on the Octagon Deck). 

I remember thinking the windows were going to break on the lift building.  Good-sized hail coming in at sustained 60mph up there at 3,600ft, it was like kids were throwing handfuls of rocks at the window with every gust.

Of course, everything in weather is a little more crazy at that elevation.

That looks insane.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

83 today in Nashua with a low of 52 , that’s certainly not above normal. In fact it’s below 

if were gonna call below days above normal than ya it’s real tuff to be below lol