Bostonseminole Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I could see dews in the 73-77F range down this way Wednesday. what's your take for severe north of the pike? looks marginal to me. but no expert.. CT looks much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: The no 50’s was referring to my BY. Still haven’t had any thankfully. 61.2 this morning . 58F at both STEMs this morning! Congrats! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Just now, Bostonseminole said: what's your take for severe north of the pike? looks marginal to me. but no expert.. CT looks much better. I agree that it looks marginal...may be enough elevated CAPE though that you could get a decent storm. But yeah...south of the Pike looks solid. Also looks to me like storm motion may be right along the boundary which would prmote 1) training cells perhaps 2) enhanced SRH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 58F at both STEMs this morning! Congrats! it was chilly this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: 58F at both STEMs this morning! Congrats! What was ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: Has it? Euro is showing it also.. it's not the ice age coming but certainly some BN temps for a bit. Point being ...it's not verified too well.. some... but not well - I suspect it's just tending toward too much amplitude in the later mid ranges in general - kind of like, as the model's physics get more coupled with finer meshed.. it seems to be slowly converging on a similar error bias as the Euro... Which definitely is too deep with troughs in the D7-10 range over Ontario... It just did it over the last three days...Go back and compare the Euro from three days ago there, and it's some 10 DM shallower as of last night's 00z rendition... And I suspect it flattens even more... Anyway - cheers. we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What was ORH? Wait...we're using ORH in Auggie? 62F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Wait...we're using ORH in Auggie? 62F You know why. Same elevation sees similar lows . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You know why. Same elevation sees similar lows . How about the similar elevation hill top in Stafford at 58°: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=A3484&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 They have it listed 800' but it's over 950' and a hill top, just like your place. Then there's that site in Union over 1K at 56°: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KCTUNION5 Both are closer and similar environments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, MetHerb said: How about the similar elevation hill top in Stafford at 58°: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=A3484&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 They have it listed 800' but it's over 950' and a hill top, just like your place. Then there's that site in Union over 1K at 56°: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KCTUNION5 Both are closer and similar environments. Must not be windy there. Winds were blowing 15mph at 4:30 during run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 5, 2019 Author Share Posted August 5, 2019 Another day, another tick backwards of the coming mild down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Let’s see what late August could do but I see no big HHH (90>temp, 70>DP) in next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Sept will be a top 3 warmest Sept for several New England sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Sept will be a top 3 warmest Sept for several New England sites Based on what Mr Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Must not be windy there. Winds were blowing 15mph at 4:30 during run 15MPH? The STEM was reporting a 5MPH gust at that time. Where were you that there were 15MPH winds? Gusts to 25? Even with localized wind in the Tolland area, why would all those stations also be in the 50s this morning? I'm just wondering why you wouldn't want to go with two local stations that are better analogs than one further away and not even remotely close to your surroundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Wait...we're using ORH in Auggie? It’s hilarious how he tiptoes through claims on here lol. Summer climate is made up of: 1) Daytime highs at BDL 2) Overnight lows at ORH 3) Dew points over mulch on Davis We think that yields a climate similar to Washington DC area? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Based on what Mr Wiz During our upcoming below-average pattern, we're going to see some pretty strong ridging develop across the western U.S. which is going to be rather persistent and this is going to yield some decent warmth at 850mb. There seems to be strong consensus (with teleconnection support) that we will see ridging build across much of the CONUS moving towards the end of the month into September. Perhaps not Sonoran heat release type stuff, but much of that warmer air would propagate and advect into our area and the flow would keep this constant. Not only should it be quite warm but I think we'll also be dealing with high humidity too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Sept has a better chance of being +3 than it does being -3 in deference to the parlance, and most importantly 'circumstances,' of our times. That's why it will be +3 ... call that a 'gut feeling'. Call that just acknowledging the former, which is more than mere gut - it's awareness of where the world is... That's why - Can it be -3... sure... can it be -1 ...absolutely... but along the curve of probabilities... these are less than their mirrored values... There may be climate-operational hybrid tools that specifically do those weekly this and that but ...I've come to find those are not more or less reliable than the type of philosophy used above - at least from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s hilarious how he tiptoes through claims on here lol. Summer climate is made up of: 1) Daytime highs at BDL 2) Overnight lows at ORH 3) Dew points over mulch on Davis We think that yields a climate similar to Washington DC area? He'll also accept Dp's at swampy coastal stations. Even with all the goal posts moving, we are still no where close to a DC climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Sept has a better chance of being +3 than it does being -3 in deference to the parlance, and most importantly 'circumstances,' of our times. That's why it will be +3 ... call that a 'gut feeling'. Call that just acknowledging the former, which is more than mere gut - it's awareness of where the world is... That's why - Can it be -3... sure... can it be -1 ...absolutely... but along the curve of probabilities... these are less than there mirrors... There may be climate-operational hybrid tools that specifically do those weekly this and that but ...I've come to find those are not more or less reliable than the type of philosophy used above - at least from what I've seen. Honestly...that is a pretty good reason really. Since the AMO flip in the mid-90's the theme has been AN...why go against that? I know people like to rub on Kevin b/c he calls for AN when we flip to the warm season and then BN when we flip to cold...but in reality since 95...probably every single JJA has ended up AN. I also think the past 10-years or so we've feared several DJF's that may have ended up BN...I recall seeing some graphics that over the past decade during the NH winter there is a sliver of NB right over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: During our upcoming below-average pattern, we're going to see some pretty strong ridging develop across the western U.S. which is going to be rather persistent and this is going to yield some decent warmth at 850mb. There seems to be strong consensus (with teleconnection support) that we will see ridging build across much of the CONUS moving towards the end of the month into September. Perhaps not Sonoran heat release type stuff, but much of that warmer air would propagate and advect into our area and the flow would keep this constant. Not only should it be quite warm but I think we'll also be dealing with high humidity too. Thx for your reasoning ill take slight AN but w low dews 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 30 minutes ago, MetHerb said: 15MPH? The STEM was reporting a 5MPH gust at that time. Where were you that there were 15MPH winds? Gusts to 25? Even with localized wind in the Tolland area, why would all those stations also be in the 50s this morning? I'm just wondering why you wouldn't want to go with two local stations that are better analogs than one further away and not even remotely close to your surroundings. Because my temps are often different . Warmer on radiator nights, colder in CAA. Why would I go with their temps ? Why don’t you use Jeff Aborns obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Honestly...that is a pretty good reason really. Since the AMO flip in the mid-90's the theme has been AN...why go against that? I know people like to rub on Kevin b/c he calls for AN when we flip to the warm season and then BN when we flip to cold...but in reality since 95...probably every single JJA has ended up AN. I also think the past 10-years or so we've feared several DJF's that may have ended up BN...I recall seeing some graphics that over the past decade during the NH winter there is a sliver of NB right over New England. Plus ... these 'synergy' effects ... where the results tends to be more pronounced than the sum of the parts... It's like 'given any excuse' a +1 supporting pattern is 1.4 abv...and so on.. and if it's a +2 pattern boom, 3.3 ... it tends to give back profit plus interest... It goes the other way too... it's just that we don't have the underpinning 'steroid' for cold... We have it for warmth ... It's abstract and easy to deny - out of all empirical evidences that people have the gull to try, that one is admittedly the easiest... Gestalt is difficult at best and more likely impossible to define using physical equations... but, when in GW... warm patterns over produce warmth. In GC ... cool patterns over perform cold. Maybe it's just something silly like ...human finger prints on physical processes having a way of biasing based on what they are observing... Build and equation...doesn't "seem" to match the heat(cold)...so we unconsciously add(detract) decimals... Just being metaphoric to describe ...but who knows. If the pattern "looks like +1" ...we will verify +2 ... I'd put 100$ on that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Thx for your reasoning ill take slight AN but w low dews Plus 3 in september can still be comfortable!! Its coming soon enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 Warmer then expected today. 86F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Plus 3 in september can still be comfortable!! Its coming soon enough.. Warm Septembers are awesome, it might be my favorite beach month because all the tourists are gone, kids back in school, etc. And warm in September normally doesn't mean torrid summer heat plus a much weaker sun angle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 5 straight days of <= 10C 850s on today’s ec for here. Maybe even a damn damming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: 5 straight days of <= 10C 850s on today’s ec for here. Maybe even a damn damming? I thought the cool shot was weakening on the models though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I thought the cool shot was weakening on the models though? Apparently some thought they were going to see low single digit 850s and sunny 60s for highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 5, 2019 Share Posted August 5, 2019 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Because my temps are often different . Warmer on radiator nights, colder in CAA. Why would I go with their temps ? Why don’t you use Jeff Aborns obs? That's not what we're talking about. You said your temp didn't drop into the 50s last night because you had 15 MPH winds this morning. Also, you asked what the temp was at ORH as if that was a better analog than 2 stations at a similar elevation and one being a hill top, just like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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