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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

While not snow, Albany does have good summer time convection. Find a spot maybe better than Albany proper as far as snowfall or retention goes and you’ll have a decent year of weather. I love snow,  but summer weather doldrums get boring. 

Saratoga area over into SVT... better snow and man I think those counties see more SVR warnings than any counties in the northeast...especially Bennington County.  They seem to do SVR well just north of the Capital District aimed E/SE towards SVT and northern half of Berkshire County.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Saratoga area over into SVT... better snow and man I think those counties see more SVR warnings than any counties in the northeast...especially Bennington County.  They seem to do SVR well just north of the Capital District aimed E/SE towards SVT and northern half of Berkshire County.

Yeah so maybe you lack in retention or big boy storms,  but if you live there and will care about weather...you would have a little more meteorological fun vs. areas to the east. 

I never looked at the area near albany in depth much  as far as snow goes, by I know SW of Albany  where Logan11 is at 1100’ does darn well since what scraps of CAD there is.....that gets a boost when you lift it to 1100’ ASL. 

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38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah so maybe you lack in retention or big boy storms,  but if you live there and will care about weather...you would have a little more meteorological fun vs. areas to the east. 

I never looked at the area near albany in depth much  as far as snow goes, by I know SW of Albany  where Logan11 is at 1100’ does darn well since what scraps of CAD there is.....that gets a boost when you lift it to 1100’ ASL. 

That ALY area certainly gets a lot more big storms than say Ithaca or parts of CNY.  I know we definitely remember the recent E.NE trend in big storms but I know growing up it seemed more likely to trend west and tucked in.  Even early on the boards, everyone assumed they would trend west.  Now it’s assumed it goes east.

My memories are mostly from 1993 (started with that March blizzard) through 2003 (say age 8-18 there) and I always thought of ENY and Hudson Valley as ironically a good location for nor’easters as funny as that sounds.  

Like the map from 2004 of the previous decade or so of CSI banding locations does show a pretty good crosshair in the ALB-NYC zone.  

Now if you plot this for the 2005-2018 period I bet it’s a bunch of dark lines over E.NE.  But at least while growing up in my more impressionable weather years as a teen, it seemed normal to be in the mix of big storms as so many seemed to pivot somewhere in the ALY CWA...and May pivoted right down the Hudson Valley.

C91E8A06-5B65-4E11-B72E-EDA0B385E38A.jpeg.31a3e47d79aa1e4ff874441f04928993.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That ALY area certainly gets a lot more big storms than say Ithaca or parts of CNY.  I know we definitely remember the recent E.NE trend in big storms but I know growing up it seemed more likely to trend west and tucked in.  Even early on the boards, everyone assumed they would trend west.  Now it’s assumed it goes east.

My memories are mostly from 1993 (started with that March blizzard) through 2003 (say age 8-18 there) and I always thought of ENY and Hudson Valley as ironically a good location for nor’easters as funny as that sounds.  

Like the map from 2004 of the previous decade or so of CSI banding locations does show a pretty good crosshair in the ALB-NYC zone.  

Now if you plot this for the 2005-2018 period I bet it’s a bunch of dark lines over E.NE.  But at least while growing up in my more impressionable weather years as a teen, it seemed normal to be in the mix of big storms as so many seemed to pivot somewhere in the ALY CWA...and May pivoted right down the Hudson Valley.

C91E8A06-5B65-4E11-B72E-EDA0B385E38A.jpeg.31a3e47d79aa1e4ff874441f04928993.jpeg

Looks like a cranky map

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20 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Savoy has been calling your name for a number of years it seems...even if they are in your Bermuda snow triangle 

 

I have a friend selling an incredible chunk of land up in Heath at 1600' but I just don't have the resources to pull it off, even if I asked my pops for help.

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8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That ALY area certainly gets a lot more big storms than say Ithaca or parts of CNY.  I know we definitely remember the recent E.NE trend in big storms but I know growing up it seemed more likely to trend west and tucked in.  Even early on the boards, everyone assumed they would trend west.  Now it’s assumed it goes east.

My memories are mostly from 1993 (started with that March blizzard) through 2003 (say age 8-18 there) and I always thought of ENY and Hudson Valley as ironically a good location for nor’easters as funny as that sounds.  

Like the map from 2004 of the previous decade or so of CSI banding locations does show a pretty good crosshair in the ALB-NYC zone.  

Now if you plot this for the 2005-2018 period I bet it’s a bunch of dark lines over E.NE.  But at least while growing up in my more impressionable weather years as a teen, it seemed normal to be in the mix of big storms as so many seemed to pivot somewhere in the ALY CWA...and May pivoted right down the Hudson Valley.

C91E8A06-5B65-4E11-B72E-EDA0B385E38A.jpeg.31a3e47d79aa1e4ff874441f04928993.jpeg

I’ve seen that paper too. Oh I do remember those storms. Like anything things can be cyclical. 

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Has Bosart written all over it if it's centered on Albany. :lol:

Ha yup.  CSTAR research I think?  Inspired by the mid-level banding Mecca of ALB.  Funny how much that regime changed just after he published that paper from interior to coastal jacks. Weather mocking him.  

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve seen that paper too. Oh I do remember those storms. Like anything things can be cyclical. 

Yeah and most of those lines were from the late 1990s...wasn't exactly deformation band central for eastern SNE those years. I think they studied April 1996 through spring 2001. They didn't just do snowstorms either. All cold season events. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and most of those lines were from the late 1990s...wasn't exactly deformation band central for eastern SNE those years. I think they studied April 1996 through spring 2001. They didn't just do snowstorms either. All cold season events. 

We should do a then and now. James can head the study and 20-21 chapters will be on Jan 2005.

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I didn’t really learn about CSI and deformation banding until 2000 or so and even then I didn’t quite get the reasoning behind it. Hard lesson learned in Feb 2006. The dryslot. That’s where the 850-500VV/RH charts came into play and we grew from there. Hard lesson learned about QPF and the biases models have with low level WAA and precip. 

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7 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Don't move to Bennington. The highlands of S VT have done pretty well IMO, with the notable exception of the infamous '15-'16 futility winter. I'd rather join James down in Harwich than live in Bennington...it's that bad. Horrendous shadowing there on E flow and they don't usually get much more than flurries, light snow from the upslope on W flow. At least Harwich can get some big storms once in a while, even if they're not all snow. Pittsfield shadows on E flow too, but not as badly, and they do better on W to NW flow events. 

I think this is true. I did well with the trio of storms in March '18 and there have been some decent events here in the past few years. It's been a tough stretch in the CT River Valley since the Nemo blizzard in 2013, which had a nicely placed deform band.

Albany isn't as bad as many make it out to be. It's in a good spot for synoptic snows, and is too far west to get bad shadowing on most E flow events. They can actually upslope slightly on NE flows (i.e. March 2, 2018) with highlands to the SW of them. Retention is terrible being in the Hudson Valley and they don't do well with elevation type events, but the ~58" average there is respectable. I've seen many events where ALB beat out PSF, AQW, and DDH simply because of terrain effects.

I love all of the talk going on about that region. I have been tossing the idea of moving to the Albany area over the past year, cost of living is much better than down here in Fairfield county. My wife has opportunities to transfer to Rensselaer and was always wondering how the snow was up there and if there were any "weenie" spots within a 30-40 minute commute of that town. Not that it would be a deal breaker on a move, but it could be factored into the equation....

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and most of those lines were from the late 1990s...wasn't exactly deformation band central for eastern SNE those years. I think they studied April 1996 through spring 2001. They didn't just do snowstorms either. All cold season events. 

Up until Jan 2011 no one seemed to think deform bands could happen from like ORH-TOL.  Even Kev would just assume 10-14” with some dry slot while the Berks or MA/NY border got 2 feet.  

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20 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Up until Jan 2011 no one seemed to think deform bands could happen from like ORH-TOL.  Even Kev would just assume 10-14” with some dry slot while the Berks or MA/NY border got 2 feet.  

CT had a ton of dryslots in some of those early 2000s storms that destroyed ORH and obviously back to western MA on some of them. Storms like Xmas 2002, Jan 2003, feb 2001, and really sore spot was January 2005...dryslot raced through CT and then hit a brick wall about 15-20 miles south of ORH near the border. I was watching and never thinking it would initially reach us but then started sweating it out a bit before everything started collapsing back SE....dryslot never even really got too much of RI either as it filled in. 

But for CT the damage was done. Some spots only got like 8-12" when like 18-24 was forecast. 

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, BTV is the true snow hole pit relative to latitude and surrounding climate.  Much more than ALB.  

GFL/Queensbury is actually a sneaky great winter spot. They are right at the mouth of the Adirondack Park and they clean up in SWFE type winters.  They CAD surprisingly well and always seem to have snow cover.  I remember like 4 feet on the ground there in 07-08.  

I would bet money that GFL gets more than 65” a year, isn’t ALB 62”? I would’ve guessed 75-80”.  

Going North from Albany snow on the ground always starts just south of GFL and is usually solid by Warrensburg.  From there the further west you go the better as you get elevation, great retention and eventually LES 

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41 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I love all of the talk going on about that region. I have been tossing the idea of moving to the Albany area over the past year, cost of living is much better than down here in Fairfield county. My wife has opportunities to transfer to Rensselaer and was always wondering how the snow was up there and if there were any "weenie" spots within a 30-40 minute commute of that town. Not that it would be a deal breaker on a move, but it could be factored into the equation....

I'd say the best spots are if you can get into the Helderbergs NW of ALB...like those spots up over 700 or 800 feet it seems to make a big difference. Like west side of Duanesburg and such. I always remember snow pack increasing quickly that way heading west. 

If you don't mind being a bit further out to the NW then start going out west of Saratoga and towards Gloversville...that's starting to get like 45+ min outside the city though. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

CT had a ton of dryslots in some of those early 2000s storms that destroyed ORH and obviously back to western MA on some of them. Storms like Xmas 2002, Jan 2003, feb 2001, and really sore spot was January 2005...dryslot raced through CT and then hit a brick wall about 15-20 miles south of ORH near the border. I was watching and never thinking it would initially reach us but then started sweating it out a bit before everything started collapsing back SE....dryslot never even really got too much of RI either as it filled in. 

But for CT the damage was done. Some spots only got like 8-12" when like 18-24 was forecast. 

Bringing back Boxing Day PTSD. 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd say the best spots are if you can get into the Helderbergs NW of ALB...like those spots up over 700 or 800 feet it seems to make a big difference. Like west side of Duanesburg and such. I always remember snow pack increasing quickly that way heading west. 

If you don't mind being a bit further out to the NW then start going out west of Saratoga and towards Gloversville...that's starting to get like 45+ min outside the city though. 

SW ALB County is a real good spot.  Only 15 minutes from where I grew up but 1,000-1,300ft elevations border the valley and since it’s literally a cliff they get pretty decent upslope on E/NE flow.  

Bern/Knox/Westerlo area.  Very close to ALB but above 1,000ft.  Rensselaerville in Albany County is actually more like 2,000ft in elevation.  The funny thing in ALB County is you either live at like 200ft or 1000+.  Theres very little in between.  Just valley, cliff, highlands.

Regardless of where you are, once you get closer to 2kft, your weather excitement increases exponentially.

Anywhere around ALB would be an increase from Fairfield County I would think.

B4D4658E-1F56-483D-BEED-C064DFC79738.jpeg.1b661a0ad8fcfd2bf6c438026708b6a2.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

78/63 here and a little too dewey for my comfort level.    NNE really has been on the dry side of the humidity line all summer long.

Yeah we hit a dew of 60F earlier but then wind went North and it dropped to low 50s this afternoon.  The residence time of dews above 60F has been severely limited this summer compared to last summer.  

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31 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

SW ALB County is a real good spot.  Only 15 minutes from where I grew up but 1,000-1,300ft elevations border the valley and since it’s literally a cliff they get pretty decent upslope on E/NE flow.  

Bern/Knox/Westerlo area.  Very close to ALB but above 1,000ft.  Rensselaerville in Albany County is actually more like 2,000ft in elevation.  The funny thing in ALB County is you either live at like 200ft or 1000+.  Theres very little in between.  Just valley, cliff, highlands.

Regardless of where you are, once you get closer to 2kft, your weather excitement increases exponentially.

Anywhere around ALB would be an increase from Fairfield County I would think.

B4D4658E-1F56-483D-BEED-C064DFC79738.jpeg.1b661a0ad8fcfd2bf6c438026708b6a2.jpeg

40 minutes west of ALB got crushed after that early March 2018 storm...looks like 3ft-ish--near Cobbleskill NY...Deform delight I would assume rotted for a bit over this area

Deep snow in Cobleskill, NY, Schoharie County, Friday March 2, 2018

 

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