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August 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Yeah..looks on IR like the NAM's old bias is coming back to haunt it - we warned of this ...that the NAM sometimes bias too far W-N in the western Atlantic.

The axis/conduit is setting up 50 or so mi E of the NAM's modeled trajectory from earlier runs, and that's going to probably result in strafing lighter showers ...while perhaps the Cape gets clipped... It may fill in back west, but that IR appears to expose where the convergence is..

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah..looks on IR like the NAM's old bias is coming back to haunt it - we warned of this ...that the NAM sometimes bias too far W-N in the western Atlantic.

The axis/conduit is setting up 50 or so mi E of the NAM's modeled trajectory from earlier runs, and that's going to probably result in strafing lighter showers ...while perhaps the Cape gets clipped... It may fill in back west, but that IR appears to expose where the convergence is..

It’s more showery in nature. I don’t see an area of more widespread heavier rains. Sure maybe a narrow area does well but seems more showery in nature. The LLJ does increase so maybe it comes together, but it does not look that impressive given how it was modeled to look at this time. 

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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah..looks on IR like the NAM's old bias is coming back to haunt it - we warned of this ...that the NAM sometimes bias too far W-N in the western Atlantic.

The axis/conduit is setting up 50 or so mi E of the NAM's modeled trajectory from earlier runs, and that's going to probably result in strafing lighter showers ...while perhaps the Cape gets clipped... It may fill in back west, but that IR appears to expose where the convergence is..

it had nothing here at 12z, and then we end up getting close to 2 inches on the western fridge of the precip

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