August 2019 Discussion

[CoastalWx]

57 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

These PRE events are another one of the Fraud Five. They never produce as advertised in the 4 years or so I've been a board member. 

PRE events overall are modeled well. They have synoptic features that are usually features that guidance models well (LLJ, jet streaks, shortwaves etc). This was not a classic PRE. In fact you could argue either way. It did have PRE characteristics which include an appraoching s/w, strong jet stream venting aloft, and a surge in moisture getting squeezed out ahead of the storm. But, this had a combo of both mesoscale and synoptic features that were difficult to model. I think many of us including myself said this numerous times. The uber amounts didn't pan out as I think we didn't get the true tropical plume north into SNE...perhaps from convection to the south robbing a bit...although the setup would produce many other times. 

[dryslot]

Euro looked to handle it pretty well as it kept the heaviest precip offshore and had most areas between 1-2".

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We need winter, fast. Micro analyzing an Aug rain event is driving me up a barb wired flag pole, naked. 

[JustinRP37]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We need winter, fast. Micro analyzing an Aug rain event is driving me up a barb wired flag pole, naked. 

Don't worry, micro analyzing a flurry event can drive you up that bard wired flag pole, just not naked since it will be cold. Or maybe you'd still want to be naked.

[Hoth]

9 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Don't worry, micro analyzing a flurry event can drive you up that bard wired flag pole, just not naked since it will be cold. Or maybe you'd still want to be naked.

Nah, then you risk a Christmas Story situation. And not with your tongue. 

[dryslot]

Well the ones that feel that they missed out can rest assured they will get their rain when the grinch comes calling.

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We need winter, fast. Micro analyzing an Aug rain event is driving me up a barb wired flag pole, naked. 

lol, it is what it is.  

The time for 60-page threads for a D-2” type clipper are coming.

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro looked to handle it pretty well as it kept the heaviest precip offshore and had most areas between 1-2".

Save a horse as usual.

[Ginx snewx]

Holy shit what a day. Drawn up August 

[dryslot]

Copious amounts of COC out there.

[dendrite]

A little dewy, but not bad with the cooler temps. Should continue drying out too.

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Save a horse as usual.

Looks like Windham County jacked in CT

[rclab]

53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We need winter, fast. Micro analyzing an Aug rain event is driving me up a barb wired flag pole, naked. 

Up an iceberg sized icicle, down a Ken doll. As always ....

[kdxken]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy shit what a day. Drawn up August 

Are we still going to get the dew points in the 70s as promised??

[tamarack]

Last evening I headed hole from Farmington just after 8 in moderate RA and halfway there got to dry roads.  Precip began at home about 8:30 and 30 minutes later I dumped 0.13" from the gauge in moderate RA - enough that our Lab mix retreated under cover after a minute or two.  (She's got the proper form, coat and webbed paws, but "retriever" and love of water wasn't part of the package.   ) 
Final total was 0.91" (I'm probably the isolated dark blue symbol on the map PF posted) over a 6-8 hour period, just about perfect for the garden.  Perfect would've been temps upper 60s rather than upper 50s - kinder to the 'maters.

These PRE events are another one of the Fraud Five. They never produce as advertised in the 4 years or so I've been a board member. 

My first PRE experience, long before the term came into (common) use, was my best - 3.80" of thunder-free tropical-like downpours through the daylight hours of 8/27/71.  Then TS Doria dumped another 5.10" during the overnight, for a total of 8.90", easily the greatest 24-hour precip event of my experience.

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Last evening I headed hole from Farmington just after 8 in moderate RA and halfway there got to dry roads.  Precip began at home about 8:30 and 30 minutes later I dumped 0.13" from the gauge in moderate RA - enough that our Lab mix retreated under cover after a minute or two.  (She's got the proper form, coat and webbed paws, but "retriever" and love of water wasn't part of the package.   ) 
Final total was 0.91" (I'm probably the isolated dark blue symbol on the map PF posted) over a 6-8 hour period, just about perfect for the garden.  Perfect would've been temps upper 60s rather than upper 50s - kinder to the 'maters.

These PRE events are another one of the Fraud Five. They never produce as advertised in the 4 years or so I've been a board member. 

My first PRE experience, long before the term came into (common) use, was my best - 3.80" of thunder-free tropical-like downpours through the daylight hours of 8/27/71.  Then TS Doria dumped another 5.10" during the overnight, for a total of 8.90", easily the greatest 24-hour precip event of my experience.

I was in Belmar, NJ during Doria.  Wild night!  Tried to body surf the next day but they wouldn’t let anyone in the water.

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Looks like Windham County jacked in CT

Is that the Windham County in NE CT or the Windham County in SE CT?

 

[Bostonseminole]

Nice day, a tad warmer but not bad for August.  One of the best Augusts we've had in a long time.  After that hurrendous July, I can understand why some folks came out with guns blazing for August +3 or +4 but things changed quickly.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Nice day, a tad warmer but not bad for August.  One of the best Augusts we've had in a long time.  After that hurrendous July, I can understand why some folks came out with guns blazing for August +3 or +4 but things changed quickly.

July was not that bad. There were great weekends sprinkled in, and it was dry. Much easier to deal then July 18 especially second half of constant dews and monsoon rains.

This month has been memorable though. Couldn’t draw the coc any bigger or better.

[PowderBeard]

Temps in the mid-70s, DPs in the mid-50s, a nice breeze. This is coastal Maine summer weather. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Is that the Windham County in NE CT or the Windham County in SE CT?

 

Impressive widespread totals over an inch. Looks like Thompson Ct area and Montville big winners in CT. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSBOX&e=201908291730

[Ginx snewx]

58 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Nice day, a tad warmer but not bad for August.  One of the best Augusts we've had in a long time.  After that hurrendous July, I can understand why some folks came out with guns blazing for August +3 or +4 but things changed quickly.

Caught a swell morning at the beach 3 to 5' long rollers now home 80 degrees.  Pool and ocean felt the same temp. Pool is 72. Absolutely perfect day.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I was in Belmar, NJ during Doria.  Wild night!  Tried to body surf the next day but they wouldn’t let anyone in the water.

Best body surfing and surfing day ever was just before Belle bisected LI in 1976.  The beach was closed, yea OK. Antique Polaroid of a 19 yr old me heading in. 

[Dan76]

27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Best body surfing and surfing day ever was just before Belle bisected LI in 1976.  The beach was closed, yea OK. Antique Polaroid of a 19 yr old me heading in. 

Whats a Polaroid 

[CapturedNature]

1 minute ago, Dan76 said:

Whats a Polaroid 

[Hoth]

Belle's one of those canes I haven't heard much about. Was it a big deal or a typical dying system?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Belle's one of those canes I haven't heard much about. Was it a big deal or a typical dying system?

Typical meh but huge surf as it was a 4

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, PowderBeard said:

Temps in the mid-70s, DPs in the mid-50s, a nice breeze. This is coastal Maine summer weather. 

Nothing better.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

I was in Belmar, NJ during Doria.  Wild night!  Tried to body surf the next day but they wouldn’t let anyone in the water.

Wisdom.  They had no interest in going out there to rescue folks.
High-end tropical storm, winds gusting 60+ at our inland location and the coast probably had some to 75.  A local source reported 3.5" in 2 hours.  The wind awakened me about 2 AM, at which time the storm was in full fury and the cheap wedge gauge on our 2nd floor balcony (garden apts) had nearly 4" and would overflow at 5".  So I donned my official BSA poncho and stepped out to empty the gauge, getting thoroughly soaked in my 15 seconds outside.
North Jersey sites received a combined 6" to nearly 10" (Morris Plains reported 9.72) from the 2 events, but it had been dry in recent weeks.  Small/medium watercourses went nuts (stalled our Nova trying to drive through 15" of Rockaway River water on a street in Denville, pushed it out, restarted and continued) but there was little significant flooding.  The lesser (4-7" in 8 hours) event of late May 1968 came with water tables and streams fairly high, and caused many millions of dollars damage.

[tamarack]

32 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Belle's one of those canes I haven't heard much about. Was it a big deal or a typical dying system?

By the time it reached northern Maine the wind was gone but not the water.  We had 6" RA, 90% falling 6-10PM on the 10th.  On the 11th one might have been able to surf the standing waves in the St.John.  A 50-yard stretch of Route 161 was blown out, cutting off that town and Allagash as a large number of woods road bridges also failed.  Next to our office west of Fort Kent downtown (I was a forester on a large family-owned landbase then) a DOT dump truck was sitting with back axles partly in a washed out culvert and front wheels 4 feet off the ground.  The apartment next to ours was getting foundation damage from the normally 2-3'-wide brook that was now flowing 2' deep and 100' wide across the highway.  We directed it between that apartment and the one where I lived, using bags of marble chips and bales of peat moss from Pelletier Florist across the street, and by the time things had clmed down, there was a trench between the apts 12' wide and 8' deep, and our back yards looked like river bottom gravel, rocks, and one old car hood washed from somewhere.