August 2019 Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

Too early to discuss flakes at the picnic tables on clown range GFS on 9/10?

[Go Kart Mozart]

The hot spot in Canada this hour is Goose Bay, Labrador.  I wonder if that has ever happened before?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The hot spot in Canada this hour is Goose Bay, Labrador.  I wonder if that has ever happened before?

CAR is also the hotspot in the northeast right now at 79F....usually only see that during obscene cutters in winter when everyone else has already had FROPA.

 

[dryslot]

Chilly air mass on 9/10-11 over the higher elev of NNE on the goofus, -2c to -4c @H85

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yup...tack on another neggy for today too. 72/45 so far.

Yeah MPV is back to -1 before today.  

MVL at -0.5 though the last few days haven’t been that far below normal up here... -2, -3 type stuff.  Yesterday was 79/42, might even have been above normal max yesterday.  Just perfect weather on the whole.  

73/43 so far today.

[powderfreak]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

CAR is also the hotspot in the northeast right now at 79F....usually only see that during obscene cutters in winter when everyone else has already had FROPA.

 

The models last week absolutely nailed this and we tried to tell “them”.  Coolest relative to normal right smack in the center of SNE, extending into the Catskills and NE PA, NNJ.  

Its like the GFS finally found the nut it was looking for and got a 5-day temp forecast pretty spot on.  Upper 60s to low 70s and nights of 40s to low 50s.

[dryslot]

In before Dr Dews.

 

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

CAR is also the hotspot in the northeast right now at 79F....usually only see that during obscene cutters in winter when everyone else has already had FROPA.

 

I think I recall a Mar 99 retrograder that gave CAR rain and snowed for much of the rest of the region.

[J.Spin]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Too early to discuss flakes at the picnic tables on clown range GFS on 9/10?

At least in terms of accumulation, that would probably be a bit on the early side as it’s a month ahead of the average first accumulation date and 2.0 S.D. ahead of the mean.  So, only about 2.3% of seasons will have accumulation by that date, but 1967 and 1986 did it.  The odds of just getting “flakes” in the air without any measureable accumulation are of course higher, but we don’t really have a lot of observational data to use for an estimate there.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

While y’all talk about snow..the Euro brings the center of TD 6 pretty close to the Cape. Using free stuff so I can’t tell if that actually means anything in terms of sensible wx.

Maybe some heavy rains if there's a PRE, which is looking more likely as of late

[dryslot]

Healthy drink verbatim on the 12z Euro for the eastern areas of NNE/SNE.

[Bostonseminole]

TD passes pretty close to MV Thursday morning not sure how much rain we get out of it.

[Bostonseminole]

dorian landfall close to cape canaveral?

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Healthy drink verbatim on the 12z Euro for the eastern areas of NNE/SNE.

We need it.  Less then 1" of rain this month.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

dorian landfall close to cape canaveral?

1955

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

1955

then GOM

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We need it.  Less then 1" of rain this month.

2.74" here this month, Euro wants to drop close to that here by 18z Thurs.

[Torch Tiger]

On 8/2/2019 at 12:53 PM, Dr. Dews said:

I'm thinking +1 or 1.5 ish for most SNE sites, maybe a 2 or 3 * BDL BOS

 

Maybe dryslot's kids and grandkids can help him read this

[Torch Tiger]

BOS 1.9

HFD 1.2

PVD 1.3

ORH .6

[CoastalWx]

That’s not a bad call. 

[Damage In Tolland]

With a warm to hot (Thursday and Friday) in SNE..next 4-5 days . Let’s see if we can make a run at those +2.5 forecasts 

[tamarack]

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I think I recall a Mar 99 retrograder that gave CAR rain and snowed for much of the rest of the region.

That was a weird event, a significant snowstorm on March 6-7 (14.5" here, 8.7" at CAR with temp 11/7) then after lollygagging in the Gulf of St. Lawrence a while, a weakened version started backing up.  CAR got 2.4" on the 10th with temps rising to 30 then light RA on the 11th with temps into the low 40s.  At my place the retro snow came on the 11th (3.3") and wet 40s on the 12th.  At CON there was 20s SN (2.7") 11th-12th then the warming on the 13th.  Then the 15-16th brought 5" to CON, 10" to CAR and 14" at my place with some serious blowing snow on the 16th.  That was it for snow that season.

Last 3 days have had temps 64/44, 68/43, 70/39, average is 67/42 which is -7.5.  Equally AN would be 82/57, warm but nothing out of the ordinary.  Today will be a tad milder, maybe 73/42.

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Maybe dryslot's kids and grandkids can help him read this

You sound hurt, And i never even mentioned your name........lol

[Lava Rock]

34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Healthy drink verbatim on the 12z Euro for the eastern areas of NNE/SNE.

I'll take my 0.3" frcst and move on. Meanwhile, maybe 1.5"+ for eastern zones

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

While y’all talk about snow..the Euro brings the center of TD 6 pretty close to the Cape. Using free stuff so I can’t tell if that actually means anything in terms of sensible wx.

Josh Morgerman's hopping on a plane to Harwich as we speak.

[tamarack]

43 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Healthy drink verbatim on the 12z Euro for the eastern areas of NNE/SNE.

12z GFS op has 1.4"-2"+ AUG-HUL, peaking at MLT.  Yesterday it was in the .1-.2 range.  We'll see if the Goofus incredible shrinking qpf kicks in before tomorrow night.

[Torch Tiger]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s not a bad call. 

Strugglin'

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

12z GFS op has 1.4"-2"+ AUG-HUL, peaking at MLT.  Yesterday it was in the .1-.2 range.  We'll see if the Goofus incredible shrinking qpf kicks in before tomorrow night.

12z Euro was all of that as well, Sharp cutoff back west........

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With a warm to hot (Thursday and Friday) in SNE..next 4-5 days . Let’s see if we can make a run at those +2.5 forecasts 

Looks like a real scorcher

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KBDL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   8/27/2019  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      WED 28| THU 29| FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03|WED CLIMO
 N/X  59  78| 62  80| 56  82| 57  76| 54  73| 56  76| 60  85| 64 57 78
 TMP  62  70| 65  70| 62  72| 62  66| 59  63| 59  68| 64  75| 68      
 DPT  58  69| 60  57| 56  57| 53  51| 52  55| 56  62| 61  66| 65      
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  PC| CL  PC| CL  CL| CL  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV      
 WND   5   7|  7  11|  5  12|  7   7|  4   7|  5   8|  8  16| 12      
 P12   8  77| 92   5|  9  14| 12   7| 10  39| 41  30| 24  25| 30 23 20
 P24      82|     92|     25|     12|     39|     59|     35|       32
 Q12   0   3|  3   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   0|       |         
 Q24       2|      3|      0|      0|      0|      2|       |         
 T12   1  34| 34   0|  2   7|  0   0|  2   5| 11  11|  7   8|  6      
 T24        | 51    |  2    |  7    |  2    | 11    | 15    | 12      
                                                                      

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like a real scorcher

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KBDL   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   8/27/2019  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      WED 28| THU 29| FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03|WED CLIMO
 N/X  59  78| 62  80| 56  82| 57  76| 54  73| 56  76| 60  85| 64 57 78
 TMP  62  70| 65  70| 62  72| 62  66| 59  63| 59  68| 64  75| 68      
 DPT  58  69| 60  57| 56  57| 53  51| 52  55| 56  62| 61  66| 65      
 CLD  OV  OV| OV  PC| CL  PC| CL  CL| CL  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV      
 WND   5   7|  7  11|  5  12|  7   7|  4   7|  5   8|  8  16| 12      
 P12   8  77| 92   5|  9  14| 12   7| 10  39| 41  30| 24  25| 30 23 20
 P24      82|     92|     25|     12|     39|     59|     35|       32
 Q12   0   3|  3   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   0|       |         
 Q24       2|      3|      0|      0|      0|      2|       |         
 T12   1  34| 34   0|  2   7|  0   0|  2   5| 11  11|  7   8|  6      
 T24        | 51    |  2    |  7    |  2    | 11    | 15    | 12      
                                                                      

BDL also has to swallow another -7 or -8 today. So they'll be down to like +0.8 or +0.9 by the end of today. Tomorrow is prob close to a 0 departure...then maybe they try to make up a bit...they'll prob hit 85 or 86 Friday with prefrontal SW flow. I'll say they finish between +1 and +1.2.