August 2019 Discussion

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

When is the last time you posted a blue one between Apr-Sep? 2008?

Boy I really must have struck a nerve with you this morning. Sorry dude . It’s only weather 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

To what

100+ in London 

110 Paris 

90+ anchorage 

random or a signal?

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not true, but mostly to counter your hype . You fully admitted you are not here in good faith but rather to hype, troll and make wild forecasts. Your credibility is pretty much shot. I miss the days when you actually put your own thought into posts rather than just quoting Gibbs 

I always make all my own forecasts and I put them out here good or bad . Fir example my great call of +3.5 to 4.5 for July . I have +2.5 for Aug and 15 days of dews 70 or higher. We’ll verify good, bad or ok at months end. What were your forecasts?

[dendrite]

I know they don't exactly calculate the normals this way, but here's the last 30 years of monthly means averaged out for BDL via the NWS NOWdata site. I used 1990-2019 for Jan-Jul and 1989-2018 for Aug-Dec. Just kind of an idea where we're headed for the 1991-2020 normals.

     30yr Running 81-10 Normal Change
Jan     27.2          26.1      +1.1
Feb     29.5          29.7      -0.2
Mar     37.7          37.8      -0.1
Apr     49.6          49.4      +0.2
May     60.0          59.5      +0.5
Jun     68.9          68.5      +0.4
Jul     74.3          73.6      +0.7
Aug     72.5          71.9      +0.6
Sep     64.8          63.8      +1.0
Oct     53.0          52.1      +0.9
Nov     42.3          42.4      -0.1
Dec     32.3          31.6      +1.7

 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Boy I really must have struck a nerve with you this morning. Sorry dude . It’s only weather 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Nothing says summer like 64 degrees on August  25th at 1230 in the afternoon. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

As I like to say to each his own but I am with Pickles not even in my mind. 

You have kids and grandkids.  You should think about it a bit.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Down to 63 with sheet drizzle 

[CoastalWx]

Gorgeous at Winni. Not a cloud in the sky. True COC. 

[kdxken]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Down to 63 with sheet drizzle 

Where is the clown that said it was going to be in the mid-80s?

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s been a warm summer.  The problem is we’re so used to it we don’t think departures have been so bad.  I’ve come to the realization that our warming climate is our biggest existential threat as a society.  Most Americans are blithely ignoring it.

Of all that is said, of mouth or pen in this era of Internet ... this first bold statement above is among the very most important.  And, that includes everything in reality in that comparison...

Humanity stands upon the proverbial railway to the future.  While the iron beneath our feet has long begun to whir, we ignore the vibration, in lieu of protestation, in lieu of self-righteous ... materialism, vapidity, ironically, sans the real sense for self-preservation.  All of that which is coveted is tantamount to arguing about the color shoes we wear to the engagement. 

I have come to the realization that this "blithe" is really a sociological problem ... much more so than a geophysical one.  Oh... pumping out an undecillion tons of Industrial farts is going to stink up the atmosphere and alter the geophysics one way or the other.  But, that was always short-sighted. It's not pumping its self.  Pretty obvious when put in that context, yet that simple arithmetic is remarkably unregistered nonetheless.  If we must put that another way, consider the nature of "A" in the totality of A-G and W.  We cannot have "anthropogenic" forcing without collaborative/collective social behavior.  By definition ...sociological.

So... some asshole denier who has a small amount of argumentative acumen ...but a whole truckload of immorality... comes back with a tired mantra, ' ...Not denying mankind's presence (bargaining lie tactic); just that it's not causing the change ( as though the former logically leads to this conclusion ( embarrassingly false)....'

Two discrete points of logic:

1 ... does it really seem reasonable that after it took the Earth hundreds of millions of years to sequester reactive Carbon out of these systems that interact with the atmosphere, and we come along and liberate it all back to said systems inside of just 500 years ... without consequence?  That cannot be disputed by any species on the surviving side of any evolutionary tract    think about that.  

2ndly,  ...if/when there is any question as to the pernicious influence you are having in any system you are intrinsically and entirely dependent upon..., do you keep doing whatever it is you are doing while you figure it out?

At the point of these logical contentions ... the denier capacity to engage in any discussion that involves non-acceptance ( even conditional acceptance is dubious at best), ends.  Any attempt to do so summarily rendered false and futile.

Yet... people attempt to do so. ...Incredible.  They don't seem connect these incontrovertible axioms with shutting the fVck up... NOW! 

The reasons are varied... there is some blithe... some immorality.  Mostly, it's just the specter of it is untenable.  It's because all other animals will not respond to threats they cannot directly perceive via one of the corporeal sense.  If the organism can't see it, smell it, taste it, touch it, or hear it... it doesn't exist.  Sonjay Gupta recently wrote one of his op-eds about this very same aspect ... If I may closely paraphrase, 'Human beings are not wired to understand climate change,' - but it's really one in the same. 

Sound familiar?  It should ...because the specter of GW....AGW....climate change... whatever euphemism you choose to describe this finality we are heading toward, simply does not register very readily to one of the corporeal sense of the Human condition. The moment denying results in poking into a testicle, every time... the asshole shuts the fVck up NOW. 

 

 

 

 

 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I know they don't exactly calculate the normals this way, but here's the last 30 years of monthly means averaged out for BDL via the NWS NOWdata site. I used 1990-2019 for Jan-Jul and 1989-2018 for Aug-Dec. Just kind of an idea where we're headed for the 1991-2020 normals.

     30yr Running 81-10 Normal Change
Jan     27.2          26.1      +1.1
Feb     29.5          29.7      -0.2
Mar     37.7          37.8      -0.1
Apr     49.6          49.4      +0.2
May     60.0          59.5      +0.5
Jun     68.9          68.5      +0.4
Jul     74.3          73.6      +0.7
Aug     72.5          71.9      +0.6
Sep     64.8          63.8      +1.0
Oct     53.0          52.1      +0.9
Nov     42.3          42.4      -0.1
Dec     32.3          31.6      +1.7

 

Trying this for CON too

CON Temperatures
     30yr Running 81-10 Normal Change  61-90 Normal/Change
Jan     21.9          20.6      +1.3       18.6/+3.3
Feb     24.3          24.3       0.0       21.8/+2.5
Mar     33.0          33.1      -0.1       32.4/+0.6
Apr     45.2          45.1      +0.1       43.9/+1.3
May     56.2          55.8      +0.4       55.2/+1.0
Jun     65.3          64.9      +0.4       64.2/+1.1
Jul     70.6          70.0      +0.6       69.5/+1.1
Aug     69.1          68.5      +0.6       67.3/+1.8
Sep     61.0          60.0      +1.0       58.8/+2.2
Oct     49.0          48.2      +0.8       47.8/+1.2
Nov     38.2          38.3      -0.1       37.1/+1.1
Dec     27.4          26.8      +0.6       24.3/+3.1

CON Snowfall
     30yr Running 81-10 Normal Change  61-90 Normal/Change
Oct      0.8             T      +0.8        0.1/+0.7
Nov      2.7           2.6      +0.1        3.8/-1.1
Dec     13.9          14.5      -0.6       13.4/+0.5
Jan     17.6          18.1      -0.5       18.1/-0.5
Feb     17.2          12.3      +4.9       14.6/+2.6
Mar     13.2          11.1      +2.1       11.1/+2.1
Apr      2.5           2.8      -0.3        2.3/+0.2
May      0.0           0.0       0.0        0.1/-0.1
Season  67.9          61.4      +6.5       63.5/+4.4

CON Precipitation
     30yr Running 81-10 Normal Change  61-90 Normal/Change
Jan     2.83          2.70     +0.13       2.51/+0.32
Feb     2.75          2.62     +0.13       2.53/+0.22
Mar     3.24          3.27     -0.03       2.72/+0.52
Apr     3.40          3.41     -0.01       2.91/+0.49
May     3.57          3.66     -0.09       3.14/+0.43
Jun     3.77          3.69     +0.08       3.15/+0.62
Jul     3.61          3.74     -0.13       3.23/+0.38
Aug     3.76          3.18     +0.58       3.32/+0.44
Sep     3.78          3.38     +0.40       2.81/+0.97
Oct     4.44          4.04     +0.40       3.23/+1.21
Nov     3.40          3.72     -0.32       3.66/-0.26
Dec     3.51          3.20     +0.31       3.16/+0.35
Season 42.06         40.61     +1.45      36.37/+5.69

 

[CoastalWx]

We wet, mild, and white. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We wet, mild, and white. 

Yup...pretty crazy the difference since the 1961-1990 period. A -3.2F January right now would basically be +0.1F back then. It’s hard to believe CON averaged under 37” precip annually when they can’t even get under 40” now.

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well i would put Current Climate change right ahead of Aliens (extra terrestrial) on my list. Financial collapse, Nuclear war and some sort of virus outbreak in top 3

Agree. We are far more likely to come to grief via other means. Climate change will introduce strains, but we're a pretty adaptable species. I mean, we survived 100,000 years of brutal ice age with primitive tools and tech. Doesn't mean it's a challenge we should brush off, or that I don't support conservation and adoption of environmentally friendly tech. I do. But yeah, I would put global financial meltdown and the breakdown of civil society that comes with it--usually accompanied by civil or world war--as my top and most likely threat. Even as we speak, things look increasingly alarming. Setting aside the disruption of supply chains this trade kerfuffle with China is causing, we're seeing the break down of trade ties across the globe and a move to towards de-globalization and balkanization. To make matters worse, we have several systemic risks flashing red at the same time. China's banking system is like a much larger and more dangerous version of ours in '08, Australia, Canada, South Korea all have deflating property bubbles and likely face a credit crunch, Europe's banking system is insolvent and has absurdly high NPLs (and will be hurt even more by the ECB's move towards negative rates), the U.S. has built the mother of all corporate credit bubbles, emerging markets have record dollar denominated debt and will be in deep shite when recession kicks in in earnest and makes the dollar appreciate against their home currency, Italy is a 10x bigger version of Greece and populists there are fixing for a fight with the EU, changes in market dynamics over the last decade (momentum enhancing passive vehicles, corporate buybacks draining liquidity, algorithmic trading) could greatly exacerbate any fall in asset prices and, finally, the central banks are largely tapped out after trying to right the ship for the last decade. The odds of something exceptionally ugly happening to global economy are exceptionally high IMO. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

67F.   2PM.  Partly cloudy.   August

[dendrite]

69/46 SKC

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I always make all my own forecasts and I put them out here good or bad . Fir example my great call of +3.5 to 4.5 for July . I have +2.5 for Aug and 15 days of dews 70 or higher. We’ll verify good, bad or ok at months end. What were your forecasts?

LR is a crapshoot as you have found post after post. You threw a dart without zero reasoning it hit,  you throw lots of darts that miss the board and hit the chick doing tequila shots at the bar. Congrats I guess

[Torch Tiger]

Lol @ a normal summer. I guess some folks slept through July in their AC.

[Ginx snewx]

17 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Agree. We are far more likely to come to grief via other means. Climate change will introduce strains, but we're a pretty adaptable species. I mean, we survived 100,000 years of brutal ice age with primitive tools and tech. Doesn't mean it's a challenge we should brush off, or that I don't support conservation and adoption of environmentally friendly tech. I do. But yeah, I would put global financial meltdown and the breakdown of civil society that comes with it--usually accompanied by civil or world war--as my top and most likely threat. Even as we speak, things look increasingly alarming. Setting aside the disruption of supply chains this trade kerfuffle with China is causing, we're seeing the break down of trade ties across the globe and a move to towards de-globalization and balkanization. To make matters worse, we have several systemic risks flashing red at the same time. China's banking system is like a much larger and more dangerous version of ours in '08, Australia, Canada, South Korea all have deflating property bubbles and likely face a credit crunch, Europe's banking system is insolvent and has absurdly high NPLs (and will be hurt even more by the ECB's move towards negative rates), the U.S. has built the mother of all corporate credit bubbles, emerging markets have record dollar denominated debt and will be in deep shite when recession kicks in in earnest and makes the dollar appreciate against their home currency, Italy is a 10x bigger version of Greece and populists there are fixing for a fight with the EU, changes in market dynamics over the last decade (momentum enhancing passive vehicles, corporate buybacks draining liquidity, algorithmic trading) could greatly exacerbate any fall in asset prices and, finally, the central banks are largely tapped out after trying to right the ship for the last decade. The odds of something exceptionally ugly happening to global economy are exceptionally high IMO. 

Yep, hey lets promote globalism , biggest mistake ever. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Lol @ a normal summer. I guess some folks slept through July in their AC.

Cuz summer starts July 1 and ends July 31, we all acknowledge July was hot in the temp dept, June not so much, August not so much.  How many Sds is plus 1 anyways

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

You have kids and grandkids.  You should think about it a bit.  

Great grandkids too. We adapt, see Hoths post. I am not afraid 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep, hey lets promote globalism , biggest mistake ever. 

Those who refuse to learn the terrible lessons of nationalism are doomed to repeat this history.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Cuz summer starts July 1 and ends July 31, we all acknowledge July was hot in the temp dept, June not so much, August not so much.  How many Sds is plus 1 anyways

Shows the gradient around S NH well. Near normal for Winni.

[CoastalWx]

This August will go down as one of the driest months too. LOL. My own fortunate dry pocket. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep, hey lets promote globalism , biggest mistake ever. 

It’s comical how trusting people are of the corporate entertainment (ahem media ) . Corporations promoted globalism thru U.S  Media . Now we got a more hollowed out consumption driven economy sitting on the back of levitated asset prices (far above historic income to price ratio’s) and a monetary system long in the tooth. SO long in fact that emergency level monetary policy can’t be normalized without a meltdown and the next recession is the biggest existential threat to(monetary system still operating with emergency monetary policy 10 years post crisis) social stability ppl don’t realize bc they are waiting for the news to let them know. Finance is a confidence game - Warning= causing . All monetary systems collapse...then they reset and reorganize and the period threatens to mimic chaos we have not seen  . Maybe we have one more recession we can weather before the coming reset.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Those who refuse to learn the terrible lessons of nationalism are doomed to repeat this history.

Same for socialist ideals. Perhaps the key is to soften the rhetoric from both sides. Hypocrites are the worst.

[Hoth]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep, hey lets promote globalism , biggest mistake ever. 

One could argue it pulled a lot of people out of poverty globally; however, it certainly has not been a blessing for the middle class of most developed countries. There's a reason ours has eroded dramatically over the last thirty years or so. Our manufacturing has just been gutted by cheaper foreign operations-in China's case directly subsidized by the State in many cases. We just can't compete with that. 

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Those who refuse to learn the terrible lessons of nationalism are doomed to repeat this history.

We are in for tough times-but with cooperation among humans we can get through them.  Without that we’re fukked.

[CoastalWx]

We’re all gonna die.